DelaneyM

8 ms·

61.
by DelaneyM 4y ago
Cayman is absolutely thriving actually, our biggest political issue is currently whether we should throttle growth. (Projections have us growing by 10%/yr in population, which is a bit scary.). Our biggest business here isn't tou
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
It's quite easy, the biggest question is whether it's worthwhile. Important: IANAL!!! You can open what's called a "Cayman Islands exempt" company, which can exist here in Cayman jurisdiction but which cannot do bus
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
Hey, Caymanian here! This is interesting reading, but I feel like it misses the point. I know a lot of people in the finance & professional services here, and I think what's missing from this analysis is how Cayman bends over back
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
I didn't think I was going to switch to Mastodon - I try to stay apolitical and I mostly used Twitter for news and influencers/disseminators with large followings who weren't moving. And yet, here I am, primarily using Mastod
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
Generally I agree, but unfortunately many newer, denser, cities can't be easily rezoned/rebuilt into residential/mixed use because the city infrastructure (usually plumbing) can't handle it. So major conversion projects
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
Something not mentioned yet (at time of writing) is the importance of self-healing data. You can always just hard-restart an app every minute or so to be resilient to nearly any failure condition in runtime (not that I've _ever_ done t
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
When I read overwrought complaints like this, I can't help but wonder what heretical "revolutionary/exciting" thoughts they are "prohibited" from expressing?" There are lots of courageous people out there
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
It's self-sustaining at this point. I wouldn't bother with an accelerator largely because I know I wouldn't find a social fit, and the informal connections are so much of the value prop. If YC had 25% women, they'd get
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
I have empathy here for the founders, going through all the overhead of finding a great candidate (you only saw the time invested in you, not the time invested in all the other candidates), then realizing you have to restructure your entire
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
It's much more impressive than that: > Upon completing her transition in 1968, Conway took a new name and identity, and restarted her career in what she called "stealth-mode". (From https://en.m.wikipedia.org&#x
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
This is yet another factor which drives homogeneity in venture as well. I have lots of friends and associates who I work well with and respect, but none are "tech people.". They're teachers, nurses, retail entrepreneurs, etc.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
How could it? So assume there's a normal distribution of price possibilities at each purchase point. You're going to end up with the _sum_ of those distributions, not the correlation or combination of them. Presumably the deviatio
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
> If you invest at a few different times, whether fixed interval or random, is this not increasing the probability of approach an average value over the period you're investing? It does indeed increase the probability that you will
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
I'm adding no assumptions, and my view is math. The only thing we know is that we're choosing an asset which we believe will trend upwards. Over the relatively short period of DCA, it will trend upwards. If you're saying you
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
If you're just "not sure", buying puts wouldn't help. Running puts & long on a single equity is assuming a specific yield shape. A good example would be an upcoming test result report for a pharmaceutical - it'
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
The intuitive leap which is hard and important is how "not knowing" works. Presumably you are choosing to invest in an asset because over the long term you believe it will go up. But you know nothing about what it will do in any
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
If you're committing to the strategy in advance, it delivers neither lower variance nor better risk-adjusted return.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
> DCA takes a lot of that psychological pressure off... Yes, that exactly. It's a psychological trick (if you have all the money upfront) and not a financially sound one.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
If you commit to the strategy in advance, then you're picking an unknown price instead of a current price, and the unknown price is likely higher. A financial hedge is, generally, something which reduces risk or improves on the risk:re
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
It depends somewhat also on what you're DCAing into. If you're DCAing into a major index, there's essentially no chance of it going to zero (that's a society-ending event, hedge with farming equipment and doomsday prepp
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
It may well seem to be de-risking, but mathematically it doesn't.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
DCA'ing provides no mitigation of the risk of randomly timing the market poorly. The only risk it mitigates is the risk of a sudden bankruptcy, or some other massive exogenous event which disrupts your future plans. However even accoun
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
A single purchase at the weighted average price is the same as the DCA'd purchase. In both cases you buy X shares for Y$.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
But it's not a hedge. If you commit to the strategy (buy monthly for 10 months) then you're just choosing an unknown price over a known price. And if you don't commit to the strategy, then you're actively trading and not
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
Roku's best bull case (IMO) is as an acquisition. Which is not improbable!
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
And what if the prices go up during the 10 month period? You invested at a much higher price than needed. The smoothing function of DCA will help mitigate FOMO and Buyer's Regret, but it won't (statistically) deliver higher retur
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
> I guess he's betting on prices generally headed down over the next 10 months, so he significantly underpays if things go per plan. Yes, exactly that! And if one is betting on prices generally going down over the next 10 months on
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
Dollar-cost averaging is still timing the market, if you have the full amount up front. You're betting that your future weighted average is less than the current price, that's timing.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
There is absolutely expert consensus (among quants) that DCA _if you have the full lump sum up-front_ makes no sense. It's math.
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by DelaneyM 4y ago
> DCA makes mathematical sense anytime you have a long-term bullish thesis (otherwise, "do not invest" is a better strategy), but have a belief that there is a short-term noise function... Math citation needed - the noise funct

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