AngrySkillzz

9 ms·

31.
by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
AI is a meaningless term. Expert systems are AI. ML is AI. Regressions are AI. I know that's hilarious but until we get a better definition of AI than "a system that exhibits learning and decision making" then regressions are
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
The medium is the message. We've been talking about this for decades - the structure of the thing you are interacting with determines how you interact with it. Substantive debate is difficult in 140 characters, so substantive debate do
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
People are already contributing code and resources to the actual catastrophic, existential AI risk du jour, the one that is likely to cause massive political disruption and potentially attendant destruction of value and/or human life:
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Exactly. Asset prices are not determined by central bank actions, there is a third component that pushes both asset prices and central bank policy - the global supply/demand of savings vs investment opportunities. Which is driven mostl
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Yeah, the unfortunate consequence of the widespread misunderstanding and demonization of finance is that everyone thinks its all "made up" or "rigged," and then when they see something that REALLY IS rigged they think it
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
The point is that the companies are making the same amount of revenue regardless of where you live. If Google cuts your salary 50% because you move to a cheaper area, maybe that doesn't make a difference to you but it is free profit fo
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Go read Money Stuff before you spread more misinformation about how the financial system works. There are no counterfeit shares, ownership is obvious except for cases like voting (because a short can pay a negative dividend but can't p
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
The other main reason it is not a currency is that it only processes 5 transactions per second and they cost a ridiculous amount of money ($60 at the peak in 2017). Which makes it only usable for large transfers of speculative value, not li
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
citation needed, most of the increases in global wealth and output are due to technological innovation and increased trade and improved governance. If you are going to claim that all the worlds wealth is just extractive you are going to nee
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
And the hilarious part is, we actually have regulations like capital requirements and FDIC insurance and central bank lenders-of-last-resort to prevent bank runs? Whereas crypto has... none of that? And unaudited Tether pumping >$1B into
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Or you could say that cryptocurrencies are incredibly correlated with the stock market and thus don't actually serve as a hedge for risk at all
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Defi loans are not actually useful though. You overcollateralize 150% of your ETH or whatever, to get say 100% back in some stablecoin. But you could have just sold the ETH in the first place...? If it truly is a "currency" then w
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Where "creating adoption" means "hopefully the price of the speculative assets I own goes up"
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
And then you look at the GME hoopla on HN and realize that no one here actually knows anything about the financial sector... If you don't know what a clearinghouse is or what Regulation SHO covers, YOU ARE NOT QUALIFIED TO SPECULATE ON
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
> rationalists are kind of adrift in real life due to the great unpersoning of religion and its replacement with woke or trumpian politics Interesting point. It's a collectivist religion for people who despise "religion" a
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Very Serious People are Concerned With it...? Sam Altman and other tech power players are involved? I wouldn't call any of the Silly Valley people "serious" but they definitely have power and think they are serious.
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
ha-ha, "smart contracts via crypto make this super doable" We do not need a BLOCKCHAIN to figure out what is newsworthy... this is a human problem, not a decentralized-immutable-trustless-system problem
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
pay real money and read the FT
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
I mean, it's definitely very similar to HN in that way, at least. Watching people here talk about econ or finance makes me want to smash my head against a wall - because econ is just politics, right, and you're entitled to confide
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
And then you read HN, and you realize no one here knows anything about economics or finance, despite how confident they are! Gell-Mann amnesia is everywhere, and not just in authoritative sources. The people on the internet who you chat wit
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
That correlation might be reversed, though. The author of The Great Leveler makes the argument that in peaceful times, inequality almost always rises to the maximum level that society can bear. It remains that way until a destabilizing even
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Yup, there is a lot of interesting perspective you get from reading journals and correspondence from the period. Sources from the late 1800s will include bits from the lives of every day people, almost always along the lines of: John opens
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Obviously no one knew what form it would take, but people were pointing out inflated housing prices[1] and other shady tactics in the mortgage market for YEARS. There's always cranks on TV saying This Time Is Different (2000, anyone?),
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Sure, many people make that argument. The recessions happened regardless of their source. But the financial panics that preceded lenders-of-last-resort and countercyclical monetary policy were significantly more frequent and severe than any
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Backing you up here. There is a clearregime change in the data before and after the advent of central banking. Recessions and financial panics are less frequent, and less severe. Just looking at the US, there were ~15 recessions since the a
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
Why is it that your comment is greyed out, yet the green accounts willfully misunderstanding US institutions and spreading whataboutism are not?
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
The price of productive assets goes up as interest rates fall, this is a simple NPV calculation. Interest rates are low, and have been low in the developed world for a while. The reason for this has nothing to do with central bank conspirac
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
This is basically my point. Didn't particularly mean to criticize davidxc, more the tendency for people on HN to assume that because they're good at programming they must also know a lot about economics, the stock market, and etc.
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
The argument is not that the US savings rate pushes up the value of financial assets in the US, I'm talking about globally (i.e. the global savings glut hypothesis). Countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and Germany have significant capi
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by AngrySkillzz 6y ago
I don't understand what you're trying to say. You can't easily say that asset prices are "disconnected from their fundamentals" - the price is what people are willing to pay for the future earnings of those companie

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