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The whole asia is just a boling pot that is going to explode but nobody knows when. I predict the peak to be when the North Korean regime collapses and South t

The whole asia is just a boling pot that is going to explode but nobody knows when. I predict the peak to be when the North Korean regime collapses and South tries to absorb the North de facto creating an option for Korea to become a regional military super house. Japanese right wing extremists pushing government to start massive military spending once again creating much more powerful Japan. I do not really know what will China do at this stage to be honest. It may try to ally with Korea but i think koreans stay neutral and will try to rebuild the North. It is highly possible that the second miracle on the han river may actually happen and Korea gets richer and richer (after all North has a massive mineral resources and a cheap workforce) and korean GDP might start reaching interesting numbers. I predict Japan will try to push forward and claim the disputed islands with the support of uncle Sam. At this point I do not know what happens but i see Korea as a random factor that might start shooting at everyone who is not korean.

gaius 11y ago
South tries to absorb the North de facto creating an option for Korea to become a regional military super house Can you detail your reasoning? If the lessons of West/East Germany are anything to go by, reunification will be followed by an inward looking period in which the work of integration absorbs all resources. Also the Nork military while large, really wouldn't add anything to the capability of the South - it's poorly equipped, malnourished and badly trained. If it wasn't for the risk of collateral damage to Seoul, any modern military could rout it just as fast as Israel won the Six Day War or the Coalition rolled over Iraq in Gulf War 1.
- honest_joe 11y ago
  The only thing that prevents reunification is the chaebols and politics. And East germany did not have a shitload of minerals they could use / sell. All true but South is already a regional military powerhouse with the troops from north and 40-60years of work they could really become as strong as the Empire of Japan was.
  - gaius 11y ago
    The only thing? I think the Norks might have something to say about that... Ironically tho' if they did achieve their wildest dreams and conquer the South they would be more, not less, vulnerable, because they wouldn't have any Western ally to hold to ransom anymore.
Xixi 11y ago
I'm not sure why you are bringing Japan into this: Japan doesn't have any claim on the Spartly islands, and it would be completely ridiculous for them to make such a claim. If Japan gets involved it will be through an alliance with one (or several) of the countries with an actual stake in this, like the Philippines. I know anti-Japanese propaganda is strong in China, but there is no need to invent conflicts that do not exist to fuel more hate. EDIT: for that matter Korea doesn't have any stake in this either. I know there is an important territorial dispute between China and Japan (Senkaku islands), and minor conflicts between Japan/Korea and China/Korea. So a conflict around the Spartly islands could spill in this area, but I don't see it starting from Korea or Japan.
- honest_joe 11y ago
  Because Japan has a dispute with China on other islands. I never said they would try to claim the spartlys. Heavy Japan alliance with Phillippines is unlikely (history, empire of japan, blah blah). It's not about anti-japanese sentiment here but more like japanese fear of revenge from chinese and maybe the right time to make a point. The more passive-aggressive China is the more likely it's that Korea and Japan will do something about it.
  - Xixi 11y ago
    I quote you: "I predict Japan will try to push forward and claim the disputed islands with the support of uncle Sam." Which islands were you thinking about? Japan has three notable territorial conflicts: the Kuril islands with Russia (controlled by Russia), the Senkaku islands with China (controlled by Japan) and the Takeshima islands (controlled by Korea). Of these three conflicts the ones with Korea and Russia are largely under the radar: most Japanese people I know aren't even aware of them. Though I think the reverse is not true in Korea... And Japan cannot "push forward and claim" the Senkaku: they are already controlling them.
    - honest_joe 11y ago
      They do not really control the senkaku islands. At least not from chinese POV :P And yes Dokdo (Takeshima in Japan) is a big thing in Korea.

gaius 11y ago

South tries to absorb the North de facto creating an option for Korea to become a regional military super house Can you detail your reasoning? If the lessons of West/East Germany are anything to go by, reunification will be followed by an inward looking period in which the work of integration absorbs all resources. Also the Nork military while large, really wouldn't add anything to the capability of the South - it's poorly equipped, malnourished and badly trained. If it wasn't for the risk of collateral damage to Seoul, any modern military could rout it just as fast as Israel won the Six Day War or the Coalition rolled over Iraq in Gulf War 1.

honest_joe 11y ago
The only thing that prevents reunification is the chaebols and politics. And East germany did not have a shitload of minerals they could use / sell. All true but South is already a regional military powerhouse with the troops from north and 40-60years of work they could really become as strong as the Empire of Japan was.
- gaius 11y ago
  The only thing? I think the Norks might have something to say about that... Ironically tho' if they did achieve their wildest dreams and conquer the South they would be more, not less, vulnerable, because they wouldn't have any Western ally to hold to ransom anymore.

Xixi 11y ago

I'm not sure why you are bringing Japan into this: Japan doesn't have any claim on the Spartly islands, and it would be completely ridiculous for them to make such a claim. If Japan gets involved it will be through an alliance with one (or several) of the countries with an actual stake in this, like the Philippines. I know anti-Japanese propaganda is strong in China, but there is no need to invent conflicts that do not exist to fuel more hate. EDIT: for that matter Korea doesn't have any stake in this either. I know there is an important territorial dispute between China and Japan (Senkaku islands), and minor conflicts between Japan/Korea and China/Korea. So a conflict around the Spartly islands could spill in this area, but I don't see it starting from Korea or Japan.

honest_joe 11y ago
Because Japan has a dispute with China on other islands. I never said they would try to claim the spartlys. Heavy Japan alliance with Phillippines is unlikely (history, empire of japan, blah blah). It's not about anti-japanese sentiment here but more like japanese fear of revenge from chinese and maybe the right time to make a point. The more passive-aggressive China is the more likely it's that Korea and Japan will do something about it.
- Xixi 11y ago
  I quote you: "I predict Japan will try to push forward and claim the disputed islands with the support of uncle Sam." Which islands were you thinking about? Japan has three notable territorial conflicts: the Kuril islands with Russia (controlled by Russia), the Senkaku islands with China (controlled by Japan) and the Takeshima islands (controlled by Korea). Of these three conflicts the ones with Korea and Russia are largely under the radar: most Japanese people I know aren't even aware of them. Though I think the reverse is not true in Korea... And Japan cannot "push forward and claim" the Senkaku: they are already controlling them.
  - honest_joe 11y ago
    They do not really control the senkaku islands. At least not from chinese POV :P And yes Dokdo (Takeshima in Japan) is a big thing in Korea.