4 ms·
The fact that this guy is an epidemiologist doesn't impress me worth a nilly bit. What I do know is that some of Gore's science is spotty, but that malaria may
by baguasquirrel 17y ago
The fact that this guy is an epidemiologist doesn't impress me worth a nilly bit. What I do know is that some of Gore's science is spotty, but that malaria may indeed be affected by any sort of climate pattern changes. I've done only a bit of traveling in my life, but I think it can hardly be disputed that there are more mosquitoes in Florida than there are in NY, and more in NY than there are in California.
The question then is: will global warming increase the primary factor and secondary factors that contribute to mosquito breeding? Those factors are clearly water/humidity first, and warmth second. California has few mosquitoes because it's cold when it's wet and it's dry when it's warm, and Florida has a lot because it's got warmth and water aplenty.
So then, the answer is complicated. Some places will see an increase in malaria prevalence and some places will see a decrease, due to the varying effects of climate change. California is set to be drier and warmer, so we shouldn't have any increase.
But that's the twist. Some places are poised to become wetter and warmer, as opposed to drier and warmer. Thus, places that don't normally experience it will experience it (or at least be plagued by mosquitoes). The authorities in those places won't be prepared for it. So either way you play it, global warming will cause some issues.
- ghshephard 17y ago"Some places will see an increase in malaria prevalence and some places will see a decrease, due to the varying effects of climate change. California is set to be drier and warmer, so we shouldn't have any increase." I figured I'd do some fact checking, for no other reason than that's what a lot of this thread is about: From: http://diseasemaps.usgs.gov/ http://diseasemaps.usgs.gov/ Cumulative 2009 Data as of 3 am, Dec 08, 2009* Cumulative Mosquito West Nile Infections by State: New York: 100 California: 1056 Florida: 3 Population of New York is approximately twice that of California, so, on a per capita basis, Mosquito Infections of West Nile Virus are five (5) times more prevalent in California. Florida has almost _no_ west nile infections (though they have a lot of mosquitos) We need to be cautious about conflating disease and insect prevalence, as tempting as that may be.