7 ms·

There is a growing amount of cheap contraband smartphones and electronics in DPRK. When it reaches a critical mass, the only thing stopping a revolution will be

by msane 11y ago

There is a growing amount of cheap contraband smartphones and electronics in DPRK. When it reaches a critical mass, the only thing stopping a revolution will be ISP access. Well-timed satellite or balloon based WiFi could foment a revolution?

redcalx 11y ago
"Well-timed satellite or balloon based WiFi could foment a revolution?" Assuming the key players want a revolution, i.e. China, US, South Korea. We've seen how those sorts of revolutions can play out and they're not always better than what came before, at least in the short term (I'm mainly thinking about Syria and Yemen).
- pc86 11y ago
  A democratic DPRK that hates the US is still probably better than a totalitarian DPRK that is ambivalent/slightly negative.
  - a3voices 11y ago
    Unless the democratic DPRK uses more terrorism against us.
    - jacquesm 11y ago
      Even more? Fear is a terrible advisor.
    - pc86 11y ago
      Worse for us, sure. Still probably better for the people of the DPRK, assuming it's truly democratic.
      - a3voices 11y ago
        Not necessarily. If the culture sucks, then democracy results in something like Iran.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    A more likely scenario is reunification with South Korea.
    - jacquesm 11y ago
      It will make the German re-unification costs pale by comparison. Fewer people but a much bigger infrastructure gap.
      - mortenjorck 11y ago
        There's a fascinating thought. The GDR hovered around what, maybe 20 years behind the West by the time of reunification? The DPRK has to be at least 50 years behind the South at this point.
- fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
  My impression is that Chinese nationalists (a lot of CCP) are not excited about the idea of throngs of hungry North Koreans flooding the border area, nor of the prospect of a failed communist state right next door. However I think a lot of them would candidly admit that DPRK is already a failed state, and kind of an embarrassment to CCP policy and philosophy.
emilsedgh 11y ago
Excuse me for my ignorance but why do you think internet access has anything to do with a revolution? Isnt a revolution a complex sociological phenomenon? Im pretty much sure whatever holds DPKR together isnt lack of internet access. Source: Iranian who lived through Iran's Green movement
- fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
  It enables free-ish communication.
- msane 11y ago
  For Iran is your point, "what ultimately changed in the long run?". DPRK is more despotic - I don't think their current government will actually work, or last many years with a connected population. For them being able to communicate with, or even see the outside world would be revolutionary. The internet would begin to unravel the effects of 60 years of Juche.
  - notahacker 11y ago
    There's pretty good internet access in most despotic countries, few of which have the advantages of social stability and breadth of surveillance apparatus as North Korea Of course the likes of Lukashenko and Mugabe have seldom tried to claim that they're keeping their country perfect, and there's a risk that North Korea's propaganda is so unsophisticated it could end up looking utterly laughable even to pretty well-indoctrinated North Koreans[1], but its pretty hard to organise an effective resistance movement even when everyone in the country hasn't been educated in the values of the current regime since birth and the leadership hesitates to send entire families to gulags at the slightest provocation. It's worth pointing out that those who might be best to depose the Dear Leader, or at least undermine the hardliners in his inner circle, have had always had the privilege of access to communications with the outside world. [1]but probably not as laughable as we think. If people with access to the same education and media as us find ISIS' rather crass blend of simplistic theology and beheading videos to be sufficiently appealing to trade their comfortable developed-world lives to don burkhas and marry ISIS fighters, then people occasionally watching broadcasts appearing to challenge those approved by the propaganda police can quite happily continue believing in the probably less-absurd cult of the unique virtues of the Dear Leader and the nation of the cleanest people enough to not die in a protest.

by msane 11y ago

redcalx 11y ago

"Well-timed satellite or balloon based WiFi could foment a revolution?" Assuming the key players want a revolution, i.e. China, US, South Korea. We've seen how those sorts of revolutions can play out and they're not always better than what came before, at least in the short term (I'm mainly thinking about Syria and Yemen).

pc86 11y ago
A democratic DPRK that hates the US is still probably better than a totalitarian DPRK that is ambivalent/slightly negative.
- a3voices 11y ago
  Unless the democratic DPRK uses more terrorism against us.
  - jacquesm 11y ago
    Even more? Fear is a terrible advisor.
  - pc86 11y ago
    Worse for us, sure. Still probably better for the people of the DPRK, assuming it's truly democratic.
    - a3voices 11y ago
      Not necessarily. If the culture sucks, then democracy results in something like Iran.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  A more likely scenario is reunification with South Korea.
  - jacquesm 11y ago
    It will make the German re-unification costs pale by comparison. Fewer people but a much bigger infrastructure gap.
    - mortenjorck 11y ago
      There's a fascinating thought. The GDR hovered around what, maybe 20 years behind the West by the time of reunification? The DPRK has to be at least 50 years behind the South at this point.
fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
My impression is that Chinese nationalists (a lot of CCP) are not excited about the idea of throngs of hungry North Koreans flooding the border area, nor of the prospect of a failed communist state right next door. However I think a lot of them would candidly admit that DPRK is already a failed state, and kind of an embarrassment to CCP policy and philosophy.

emilsedgh 11y ago

Excuse me for my ignorance but why do you think internet access has anything to do with a revolution? Isnt a revolution a complex sociological phenomenon? Im pretty much sure whatever holds DPKR together isnt lack of internet access. Source: Iranian who lived through Iran's Green movement

fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
It enables free-ish communication.
msane 11y ago
For Iran is your point, "what ultimately changed in the long run?". DPRK is more despotic - I don't think their current government will actually work, or last many years with a connected population. For them being able to communicate with, or even see the outside world would be revolutionary. The internet would begin to unravel the effects of 60 years of Juche.
- notahacker 11y ago
  There's pretty good internet access in most despotic countries, few of which have the advantages of social stability and breadth of surveillance apparatus as North Korea Of course the likes of Lukashenko and Mugabe have seldom tried to claim that they're keeping their country perfect, and there's a risk that North Korea's propaganda is so unsophisticated it could end up looking utterly laughable even to pretty well-indoctrinated North Koreans[1], but its pretty hard to organise an effective resistance movement even when everyone in the country hasn't been educated in the values of the current regime since birth and the leadership hesitates to send entire families to gulags at the slightest provocation. It's worth pointing out that those who might be best to depose the Dear Leader, or at least undermine the hardliners in his inner circle, have had always had the privilege of access to communications with the outside world. [1]but probably not as laughable as we think. If people with access to the same education and media as us find ISIS' rather crass blend of simplistic theology and beheading videos to be sufficiently appealing to trade their comfortable developed-world lives to don burkhas and marry ISIS fighters, then people occasionally watching broadcasts appearing to challenge those approved by the propaganda police can quite happily continue believing in the probably less-absurd cult of the unique virtues of the Dear Leader and the nation of the cleanest people enough to not die in a protest.