Paul Graham notes "I could see myself—can see myself—making at least 4 of these 5 mistakes". I wonder which is the only one he doesn't easily see himself making

Paul Graham notes "I could see myself—can see myself—making at least 4 of these 5 mistakes". I wonder which is the only one he doesn't easily see himself making? (Presumably, either #1 or #3, though his public persona is such that neither of these mistakes would be characteristic of it)