> "But first I need to mention two reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is fa

> "But first I need to mention two reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is far from inspiring." This seems apt. While I agree with his sentiment we currently have the situation of a strong US Dollar despite continuous high US deficits - in contrast to his forecast. Europe is going the route of limiting deficits (as Warren Buffet suggests in his letter) and receives lots of criticism for this from US economists.