4 ms·

Say I wanted to put my reputation or money where my mouth is with some predictions like this of my own. Are there any online prediction markets that support thi

Say I wanted to put my reputation or money where my mouth is with some predictions like this of my own. Are there any online prediction markets that support this? This was the idea behind Intrade before it folded, no? I remember hearing about it in the popular media all the time during the 2012 US presidential election. Has anything like it arisen in its place?

saryant 11y ago
Well, when it comes to US equity markets, you can just invest in them (or against them).
- klenwell 11y ago
  From what I've read, shorting stuff is complicated. What about a site, say the web 2.0 version of longbets.org, where users can make predictions just using karma (or HN points) and user results are published? Does anything like that exist?
  - stupandaus 11y ago
    Betfair if you put money in the UK.
  - bgirard 11y ago
    It's not. It's right next to the 'buy/long' field/dropdown for most online brokers. The broker might make you jump through a trivial hoop to get a margin account and fax in an additional agreement. Stock short account you just had to request and to get option shorting my broker, TD Waterhouse, had a simple Q&A quiz to make sure you understood the risk profiles of option shorting.
  - peppery 11y ago
    Instead of short selling an equity (which is indeed complicated not so much in its difficulty but in its potentially unlimited downside), you can buy a put option. For the cost of the option you receive the right (not the obligation) to sell a stock at a specified price. If the stock price then goes down below that that price, simply buy the stock at the lower market price then use your put option to sell it at the higher price. The downside is limited to the cost of the option.
GregBuchholz 11y ago
For the U.S. presidential race, there is the Iowa Electronic market: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html
higherpurpose 11y ago
This soon: http://www.augur.net/ http://www.augur.net/

saryant 11y ago

Well, when it comes to US equity markets, you can just invest in them (or against them).

klenwell 11y ago
From what I've read, shorting stuff is complicated. What about a site, say the web 2.0 version of longbets.org, where users can make predictions just using karma (or HN points) and user results are published? Does anything like that exist?
- stupandaus 11y ago
  Betfair if you put money in the UK.
- bgirard 11y ago
  It's not. It's right next to the 'buy/long' field/dropdown for most online brokers. The broker might make you jump through a trivial hoop to get a margin account and fax in an additional agreement. Stock short account you just had to request and to get option shorting my broker, TD Waterhouse, had a simple Q&A quiz to make sure you understood the risk profiles of option shorting.
- peppery 11y ago
  Instead of short selling an equity (which is indeed complicated not so much in its difficulty but in its potentially unlimited downside), you can buy a put option. For the cost of the option you receive the right (not the obligation) to sell a stock at a specified price. If the stock price then goes down below that that price, simply buy the stock at the lower market price then use your put option to sell it at the higher price. The downside is limited to the cost of the option.

GregBuchholz 11y ago

For the U.S. presidential race, there is the Iowa Electronic market: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html

higherpurpose 11y ago

This soon: http://www.augur.net/ http://www.augur.net/