They lied about the evening and may have been there before or during the murder, then panicked after Guede fled, so they cleaned up because they knew how guilty

They lied about the evening and may have been there before or during the murder, then panicked after Guede fled, so they cleaned up because they knew how guilty they were going to look. It does not mean that they are murderers. Also note that Italian defendants are allowed to lie while they are being called as witnesses. I don't think the quantitative probability analysis of the Less Wrong thread is that meaningful in the semantics of the analysis itself, but I think it shows that a reasonable person would have a qualitative reasonable doubt about the murder.