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Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
by teilo 17y ago
Wow! Bayesian analysis in the New York Times. Maybe there is hope for this world after all.
- ltjohnson 17y agoI'll start by saying that I'm not trolling. Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis. I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
- debt 17y agohttp://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes He uses the mammogram statistics as an example to explain Bayes' Theorem.
- roundsquare 17y agoJohn Allen Paulos seems to be very intent on increasing the numeric literacy (I think he calls it numeracy) of people in general. Its a laudable goal indeed. This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.