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The question of risk is always related to cost. It's common to use the 'insurance analogy' in these cases, or to invoke the 'precautionary principle'. The ins
by brc 11y ago
The question of risk is always related to cost.
It's common to use the 'insurance analogy' in these cases, or to invoke the 'precautionary principle'.
The insurance analogy breaks down when you're paying 1/4 the cost of your house every 4 years to have it replaced in case of a possibility. We can't calculate the risk of an asteroid strike so we don't bother trying to avoid it or insure for it. Trying to solve an equation with one unknown variable is pointless, because there is only one correct value, and infinite incorrect values. Therefore the probability of wasting resources is extremely high.
The precautionary principle is a recursive conundrum that eliminates itself and shouldn't be used in serious conversations.
The facts point to a wait and see approach as the only rational response, given the availability of low cost approaches as in the original post here. This of course is not a popular response, but then most religions are based on the investment of time and money up front to deal with the unknown factor of what happens in the future. Unscrupulous people then use that fear to gather power and control over others. I'll always reject that thinking and use a wait and see approach.
- danieltillett 11y agoThe problem is not due to the costs involved in mitigation as these are quantifiable, but how to value the risk. Lets assume that the risk of total climate collapse is low, but the cost of such event is effectively infinite, then the no matter what the cost of preventing such a small risk it is worth doing. The insurance analogy is not the best one to use. A better analogy is if you had cancer and someone offered you a magic pill that cure you. How much would you pay for this drug? I know in my case it would be everything I own, as well as what I could earn in the future, just up to the point where I would cause excessive hardship to my family. When in comes to avoiding the risks of catastrophic climate change all the facts point towards doing lots of research to develop options given then cost of the research is relatively low and the risks with not having options very high.