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It's a pretty jarring revelation. Just two weeks ago, we were skating on the Thames: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ic

It's a pretty jarring revelation. Just two weeks ago, we were skating on the Thames: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-headi... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9869499 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9869499

hartror 11y ago
That was junk reporting. > not predicting a 60 percent drop in the light and heat emitted by the Sun, but a drop in magnetic activity in the Sun. This has only a marginal effect on the Sun’s light/heat output. http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/07/14/global_cooling_no_were_not_headed_for_a_mini_ice_age.html http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/07/14/global_c...
- mturmon 11y ago
  Phil Plait, who does the Bad Astronomy blog, did a well-calibrated and respectful job with that piece. Phil is well hooked in to the solar community, so he is a good person to be consulting. Thanks for linking to it. Basically, the uproar was caused by a very speculative theory [1] that solar magnetic activity might be decreasing in the coming decades. This concept is not well-established; in fact, it is better-described as a highly speculative theory coming from a data extrapolation by a very small group of solar researchers, at one institution, over the last year or so. But even if their solar claims turn out to be true -- very big if given their methodology -- they (A) can't (and don't) link their magnetic claims to irradiance, and (B) the irradiance effect of sunspot/magnetic change is strongly believed to be quite small relative to other effects anyway, especially anthropogenic ones. [1] It was published in ApJ, but here is a relatively open link: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_PREDICTION_OF_SOLAR_ACTIVITY_FROM_SOLAR_BACKGROUND_MAGNETIC_FIELD_VARIATIONS_IN_CYCLES_21-23 http://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_PREDICTION...
jakub_h 11y ago
That "mini-ice-age" claim has been very quickly questioned by many. But the Gulf Stream reportedly exhibits strong signs of slowing down, which to me sounds like a much more important factor for the UK.
calinet6 11y ago
The complexity of climate patterns doesn't preclude both happening at once.
rosser 11y ago
And if their predicted worst-case scenario plays out, you'll probably be skating on the Thames again. It will just be a bit wider. Weather != climate.
11thEarlOfMar 11y ago
^^^ sarcasm ^^^

hartror 11y ago

That was junk reporting. > not predicting a 60 percent drop in the light and heat emitted by the Sun, but a drop in magnetic activity in the Sun. This has only a marginal effect on the Sun’s light/heat output. http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/07/14/global_cooling_no_were_not_headed_for_a_mini_ice_age.html http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/07/14/global_c...

mturmon 11y ago
Phil Plait, who does the Bad Astronomy blog, did a well-calibrated and respectful job with that piece. Phil is well hooked in to the solar community, so he is a good person to be consulting. Thanks for linking to it. Basically, the uproar was caused by a very speculative theory [1] that solar magnetic activity might be decreasing in the coming decades. This concept is not well-established; in fact, it is better-described as a highly speculative theory coming from a data extrapolation by a very small group of solar researchers, at one institution, over the last year or so. But even if their solar claims turn out to be true -- very big if given their methodology -- they (A) can't (and don't) link their magnetic claims to irradiance, and (B) the irradiance effect of sunspot/magnetic change is strongly believed to be quite small relative to other effects anyway, especially anthropogenic ones. [1] It was published in ApJ, but here is a relatively open link: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_PREDICTION_OF_SOLAR_ACTIVITY_FROM_SOLAR_BACKGROUND_MAGNETIC_FIELD_VARIATIONS_IN_CYCLES_21-23 http://www.researchgate.net/publication/266799418_PREDICTION...

jakub_h 11y ago

That "mini-ice-age" claim has been very quickly questioned by many. But the Gulf Stream reportedly exhibits strong signs of slowing down, which to me sounds like a much more important factor for the UK.

calinet6 11y ago

The complexity of climate patterns doesn't preclude both happening at once.

rosser 11y ago

And if their predicted worst-case scenario plays out, you'll probably be skating on the Thames again. It will just be a bit wider. Weather != climate.

11thEarlOfMar 11y ago

^^^ sarcasm ^^^