4 ms·

I'm curious about this. Why? I think the best hindsight for successes was about enabling. - The iPod enabled you to take your music with you in a much more pol

by ethbro 11y ago

I'm curious about this. Why? I think the best hindsight for successes was about enabling. - The iPod enabled you to take your music with you in a much more polished and convenient form factor (sorry, Rio). - The iPhone enabled you to have much more functional mobile experience (in a much more polished and convenient form factor... sorry, Blackberry). - The MacBook Pro... " - The Apple Watch enables you to... ... what? I'm honestly asking. You can't physically put a bigger screen on your wrist. No one has come up with a convenient input device for interacting with it. Sure, battery, processing power, and connectivity will improve as hardware does. But none of those change the basic proposition. What is the problem that it solves? Continuous health monitoring is helpful, but I think obesity statistics bear out how much people generally care about their own health. I can see an alternate past where the iPhone was instead a watch, and now we're all communicating via watches (albeit those first few generations would have been bracelets). But competing against an entrenched surfeit of cell phone screens? I just don't see it. (Side argument familiar to Tesla owners: also, now you have tech curve depreciation is what was formerly a more value-retaining object, if you're thinking of just using it as a watch)

toyg 11y ago
> Continuous health monitoring is helpful, but I think obesity statistics bear out how much people generally care about their own health. You should have a look at the size of the fitness sector. We fatsos might care about our health intermittently, but we tend to periodically overspend desperately trying to catch up. If Apple can persuade me that the iWatch will make me lose weight all the time, I'm happy to hand them my life savings. I personally think the watch is pointless until it remains a dumb sensor hub (and it stays at a luxury price point), but being the central point for overall health monitoring is the killer spot for wearables. Sport, medical and insurance companies will be on it in seconds, followed by child-safety, elder care, entertainment, payment, the lot. Smartphones will look clumsy in comparison. (edit to answer your enabling question: if it becomes the focal point for continuous health monitoring, it enables me to know exactly what's going on in my body at all times without having to see a doctor and book exams.)
- ethbro 11y ago
  I agree that there's certainly money to be made in fitness. I'm just saying it's closer to AppleTV money (people who want a more advanced media hub) than iPhone money (people who want the internet in their pocket).
melling 11y ago
How about being able to monitor your heartbeat so you stay within training range? I'm working on a "Two week review" on my blog. The gamification of health is alluring. Here's a pic, the only thing finished :-) https://h4labs.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/awards.png https://h4labs.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/awards.png The safety aspect is also huge. "Help I've fallen and I can't get up"... or you're in a car accident or seriously injured... Your watch is always on you. Not true yet because it might be charging. :-(
- ethbro 11y ago
  Looking forward to the review! I'll keep an eye out. Health gamification is a shift, but I don't see it being a major shift without incentives being tied to it. As the story went on the Prius, one of the biggest impacts in testing was putting an instantaneous MPG display on the dash. And driving habits suddenly change. But there's a short term financial incentive there. I'd argue that people just don't fundamentally think about their health that way. That this soft drink today will cost me $x on average 30 years from now by increasing my risk for something? Does not compute.
kstrauser 11y ago
Don't underestimate the effect of more personal notifications. I can be in a meeting and feel a gentle (and silent) tap on my wrist, take a quick glance, and go back to paying attention. It's much more subtle than having your phone vibrate loudly, picking it up, and stowing it away again. You wouldn't think so, but in practice it is. > I think obesity statistics bear out how much people generally care about their own health. I was surprised at how quickly and readily I started going along with my watch's insistence to get up off my butt and walk around from time to time. I don't know why I obey my watch when that's something I should be doing on my own, but I'm no longer neglectful about it. Also, don't underestimate the value of gamification. I now get points and awards for standing throughout the day, walking lots, and exercising. It's dumb and I have no excuse for not doing those things without my watch pestering and then rewarding me. And yet, now I'm walking more. But back to the notifications. I've said this here before, but I was amazed at the silent navigation feature. Whenever I request a route through Apple Maps (on my phone or my watch) and start it, I can put my phone in my pocket and start walking. When I get to an intersection, my watch gives one series of taps if I'm supposed to turn left and a different one if I should turn right. I can walk through sketchy neighborhoods with my head held high, without wearing the "I'm lost - rob me!" signal of hunching over my phone. I just keep moving until it tells me to change direction. I swear, it's like a superpower. I'm not even kidding. And maybe that's my final answer: The Apple Watch enables you to... project the Internet onto reality. You can get much of the same effect with phone apps, but a phone doesn't have the intimacy to really make the bridge between your data and the outside world. On paper it doesn't sound like that big of a deal, but after wearing it around for a little while I'd sure hate to give it up.
- ethbro 11y ago
  > On fitness I think that's going to come down to insurance involvement. And God knows how that ends up given the innumerable potential deals that could be made. > On notifications I do agree on that. Maybe another way of phrasing it is "It enables you to not take out your phone." Which is no small thing in a lot of circumstances. The only issue here is... doing that well is UI. I think history teaches us that if there's one thing third party software is terrible at then it's interface.

by ethbro 11y ago

toyg 11y ago

> Continuous health monitoring is helpful, but I think obesity statistics bear out how much people generally care about their own health. You should have a look at the size of the fitness sector. We fatsos might care about our health intermittently, but we tend to periodically overspend desperately trying to catch up. If Apple can persuade me that the iWatch will make me lose weight all the time, I'm happy to hand them my life savings. I personally think the watch is pointless until it remains a dumb sensor hub (and it stays at a luxury price point), but being the central point for overall health monitoring is the killer spot for wearables. Sport, medical and insurance companies will be on it in seconds, followed by child-safety, elder care, entertainment, payment, the lot. Smartphones will look clumsy in comparison. (edit to answer your enabling question: if it becomes the focal point for continuous health monitoring, it enables me to know exactly what's going on in my body at all times without having to see a doctor and book exams.)

ethbro 11y ago
I agree that there's certainly money to be made in fitness. I'm just saying it's closer to AppleTV money (people who want a more advanced media hub) than iPhone money (people who want the internet in their pocket).

melling 11y ago

How about being able to monitor your heartbeat so you stay within training range? I'm working on a "Two week review" on my blog. The gamification of health is alluring. Here's a pic, the only thing finished :-) https://h4labs.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/awards.png https://h4labs.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/awards.png The safety aspect is also huge. "Help I've fallen and I can't get up"... or you're in a car accident or seriously injured... Your watch is always on you. Not true yet because it might be charging. :-(

ethbro 11y ago
Looking forward to the review! I'll keep an eye out. Health gamification is a shift, but I don't see it being a major shift without incentives being tied to it. As the story went on the Prius, one of the biggest impacts in testing was putting an instantaneous MPG display on the dash. And driving habits suddenly change. But there's a short term financial incentive there. I'd argue that people just don't fundamentally think about their health that way. That this soft drink today will cost me $x on average 30 years from now by increasing my risk for something? Does not compute.

kstrauser 11y ago

Don't underestimate the effect of more personal notifications. I can be in a meeting and feel a gentle (and silent) tap on my wrist, take a quick glance, and go back to paying attention. It's much more subtle than having your phone vibrate loudly, picking it up, and stowing it away again. You wouldn't think so, but in practice it is. > I think obesity statistics bear out how much people generally care about their own health. I was surprised at how quickly and readily I started going along with my watch's insistence to get up off my butt and walk around from time to time. I don't know why I obey my watch when that's something I should be doing on my own, but I'm no longer neglectful about it. Also, don't underestimate the value of gamification. I now get points and awards for standing throughout the day, walking lots, and exercising. It's dumb and I have no excuse for not doing those things without my watch pestering and then rewarding me. And yet, now I'm walking more. But back to the notifications. I've said this here before, but I was amazed at the silent navigation feature. Whenever I request a route through Apple Maps (on my phone or my watch) and start it, I can put my phone in my pocket and start walking. When I get to an intersection, my watch gives one series of taps if I'm supposed to turn left and a different one if I should turn right. I can walk through sketchy neighborhoods with my head held high, without wearing the "I'm lost - rob me!" signal of hunching over my phone. I just keep moving until it tells me to change direction. I swear, it's like a superpower. I'm not even kidding. And maybe that's my final answer: The Apple Watch enables you to... project the Internet onto reality. You can get much of the same effect with phone apps, but a phone doesn't have the intimacy to really make the bridge between your data and the outside world. On paper it doesn't sound like that big of a deal, but after wearing it around for a little while I'd sure hate to give it up.

ethbro 11y ago
> On fitness I think that's going to come down to insurance involvement. And God knows how that ends up given the innumerable potential deals that could be made. > On notifications I do agree on that. Maybe another way of phrasing it is "It enables you to not take out your phone." Which is no small thing in a lot of circumstances. The only issue here is... doing that well is UI. I think history teaches us that if there's one thing third party software is terrible at then it's interface.