4 ms·
Fascinating stuff. I'm not a professional statistician, but I was mostly able to follow along. Here are the two most interesting statements from the piece to me
by lionhearted 17y ago
Fascinating stuff. I'm not a professional statistician, but I was mostly able to follow along. Here are the two most interesting statements from the piece to me:
> Foul play is assumed and the hunt is on for a culprit; a natural suspect is man made CO2, which has increased coincidental with temperatures. It's a small part of overall global greenhouse gases (5.5% if you don't include water vapor, 0.3% if you do), but maybe -- just maybe -- the atmosphere is in a delicate, wobbly, equilibrium balance.
It never occurred to me that human-produced carbon-dioxide was such a small percent of the greenhouse gases.
Then there was this:
> But a funny thing happened on the way to Copenhagen: a couple of Canadian researchers, McIntyre and McKitrick, found that when they ran simulations of "red noise" random principle components data into Mann's reconstruction model, 99% of the time it produced the same hockey stick pattern. They attributed this to Mann's method / time frame for selecting of principle components.
That's just a wow. Incredibly damning of that model, and that model was one of the biggest calls to urgency in the field. I'm happy this sort of information is coming out and being thought about.