Interesting article. On overconfidence. A number of years ago, I took a graduate managerial science course. I recall an exercise: 10 questions (i.e, the moon's

Interesting article. On overconfidence. A number of years ago, I took a graduate managerial science course. I recall an exercise: 10 questions (i.e, the moon's diameter) were asked with an numerical answer. One has to provide a range (high, low) that guarantees one is 90% correct without being overly wide in one's estimate. I think the goal was to get 6 questions correct. The class abysmally failed: answers way too narrow. The class really over-estimated their knowledge. There was more questions like this, all to demonstrate various fallacies in decision making. That said, I recall reading a chapter in the "Black Swan" on balancing overconfidence and underconfidence. Reading some of the comments reminded me of a quote from Bill Parcells: "Confidence is born out of demonstrated ability."