3 ms·

How can you know for sure? In the end all you actually have are probabilities. At the beginning of the incubator I attended, the estimated success rate of start

How can you know for sure? In the end all you actually have are probabilities. At the beginning of the incubator I attended, the estimated success rate of startups was less than 10%. By that rationale, I should have packed my things and gone home. And in fact, I agree with that rationale. I still can't believe I went through with it, much less succeeded. But without foolhardy people to take on these gigantic risks, we'd be FAR less developed than we are.

davemel37 11y ago
In the end we can only do the best we can with the information available to us. This is a warning to make sure you have the most accurate information possible instead of digging your head in the sand and hoping your blissful ignorance is like a blind squirrel finding a nut once in a while. Statistics cant prove anything! Thats his point. Dont be so confident that your mind is too closed to explore other possibilities. Scientific method can only eliminate possibilities and show you the most probable option. It is by no means proof. But thats a bad reason to not consider competing hypothesis instead of just trying to confirm an existing bias. Your point about incubator success is different. Those statistics are exactly the ones we want to avoid. Success or failure of a startup in an incubator is not diagnostic evidence as i can think of a dozen other hypothesis to explain those results. Its like a doctor saying you have strep because you have fever. Since fever is consistent with other diagnosis it has no diagnostic value beyond the point of saying you are sick.