>“(overconfidence)is built so deeply into the structure of the mind that you couldn’t change it without changing many other things”. Based on his book and othe

>“(overconfidence)is built so deeply into the structure of the mind that you couldn’t change it without changing many other things”. Based on his book and other books similar I think he is referring to people using incomplete data to prove a fact and have absolute confidence in it despite a cognitive bias being at play. Just think about all the political issues we are so aure about or the anecdotal evidence we trusted about a new feature or the results of a split test. There is a case study with horse handicappers in "the psychology of intelligence analysis" that shows the accuracy of handicapper predictions were the same whether they had 5 data points or 40...but when they had 40 their confidence in their predictions skyrocketed. He is warning us to second guess those facts (not self esteem related) that we feel so confident in...