I think that it will be local in its impact. We're probably not going to see it hurt the wider market. Bankers will have a laugh at Sand Hill's expense. The few

I think that it will be local in its impact. We're probably not going to see it hurt the wider market. Bankers will have a laugh at Sand Hill's expense. The few pension funds that got substantially invested in VC will be hurt, but I think most Vanguard accounts will be fine. Sand Hill Road will lose money. The leading VCs will still be rich, just less so. Very high-end California real estate will crash. Unfortunately, it probably won't do much for SF apartments; what we see in real estate is that people hoard (even at significant financial loss) rather than selling when real estate demand drops, because of emotional attachment. What made Silicon Valley great in the 1970s-90s will reconstitute itself somewhere else in the 2020s: possibly the Pacific Northwest, possibly the North (Midwest and New England) again, and possibly another country. 2017 is a very approximate date. That could easily be off by five years, or even more.