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This article was not particularly insightful - it contained lots of classic proof by assertion. It doesn't treat seriously any of the valid criticisms of the cu
by lionhearted 17y ago
This article was not particularly insightful - it contained lots of classic proof by assertion. It doesn't treat seriously any of the valid criticisms of the current thought and research processes on global warming. That said, I'm not going to flag it because I think it deserves some thought and rebutting.
The author asks, "Why doesn't everyone believe in climate change when most experts do?" This is the start of his answer:
> It certainly predates the leaked emails (on which there is surely nothing more to say). Firstly we have the obvious psychological issues. We’re predisposed to undervalue adverse outcomes which are a long way off in the future, especially if we might be old or dead soon.
He starts with the assumption that climate change is real, and then starts trying to figure out why anyone wouldn't believe in it. There are a number of valid reasons to raise questions about what is happening in climate change, the magnitude of it, and how dangerous it might be. Here are a few:
First, if it's really happening to an extent as to require severe urgency, you ought to be able to say things like this: The current average temperatures and standard deviations of temperatures in these 50 regions are X and Y. We expect the temperatures to rise by A over this period of time in at least 35 of these regions, and the standard deviation to increase by B. If this does not happen over the next five years, that creates serious doubt in our claims and methodologies.
Instead, they're using a lot of backwards-looking, unfalsifiable propositions. A hurricane hits? They blame it on climate change. No hurricanes? Still, climate change.
Going further - very many, if not most cultures have believed that the world was in danger of ending during their lifetime. This is a recurring theme throughout history. Obviously, they've pretty much all been wrong so far. When people mention the very prominent global cooling that everyone was scared about, that I was taught to be scared about in school, they say, "Oh, scientists never believed that. It was just a media thing."
Then you've got things like the fact that there's pretty conclusive records of farming in Greenland as recently as 700 years ago, that died out due to the Earth getting colder.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland#Norse_settlement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland#Norse_settlement
There's a decent amount of literature and support for the idea that the Earth is coming out of an Ice Age. So if things are getting hotter, that's not even to say that it's a bad thing or that humans are causing the bulk of it.
Regardless, a lot of people seem to be concluded that global warming is happening, it's very severe, and we must do something immediately. The matter is no longer open for research and debate, because it is an emergency, and any dissenting views are unwelcome. They're pointing to experts as having a consensus, but there's not a consensus, and many of the experts have very recently been shown to do some serious scientific misconduct.
Some of the people who believed in widespread, extremely dangerous, human caused climate change are a bit more skeptical now that there's been the evidence of pretty severe scientific misconduct. (For instance, destroying data created that was publicly funded in response to a proper Freedom of Information request). So, the main argument for climate change is that there's an expert consensus, but now there's a show of serious scientific misconduct among the experts. Shouldn't everyone be a touch more skeptical after that? I mean, regardless of how convinced you were, don't you have to be less convinced now?
Then they get to things like this:
> More than all that, I can spot the same rhetorical themes re-emerging in climate change foolishness that you see in aids denialism, homeopathy, and anti-vaccination conspiracy theorists.
Look, smart people can go through data and claims. There are smart people who do not believe the current mainstream views of climate change. This does not make them "deniers" or purveyors of pseudo-science. The burden of proof is much more heavy on the people that wish to add expensive political controls to citizens' lives than it is on the people that don't want those controls. The current views on climate change are by no means proven - slinging mud by saying anyone who doesn't believe in climate change is gullible or an idea or a denier of science is not right, it is not correct, it is not proper, and ought to be an additional red flag that there's something not right with the official positions on climate change. Legitimate science does not conduct itself like this, because it does not have to.
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]
- russss 17y agoI don't think Ben Goldacre is saying that valid criticism of climate change is bad. What he is saying is the vast majority of people who are criticizing climate change are doing so based on incorrect premises. This is why I personally have problems with people who are anti-AGW. Any valid points they have are drowned out by hundreds of non-scientific people frothing at the mouth and spouting exaggerated, incorrect crap. He believes climate change is occurring because of the expert consensus. Claiming that all several thousand experts are involved in a cover up is pretty classic conspiracy theory thinking...
- nazgulnarsil 17y agoagreed, but can you blame them? isn't the rational position to place the burden of proof on those who demand others change their behavior?
- lionhearted 17y ago> He believes climate change is occurring because of the expert consensus. Claiming that all several thousand experts are involved in a cover up is pretty classic conspiracy theory thinking... This is exactly what I'm talking about. I said, precisely, "...and many of the experts have very recently been shown to do some serious scientific misconduct." Is this conspiracy theorizing? No. A lot of them just participated in some actions that are almost universally regarded as scientific misconduct, such as destroying data rather than providing it for attempts at falsifying. This was many of the formerly respected and important climate change scientists. I gave a number of my concerns with the current research and views on global warming, saying that people are acting like the matter is no longer open to debate and discussion. And you responded that there's "hundreds of non-scientific people frothing at the mouth and spouting exaggerated, incorrect crap." And saying I claimed there's a massive cover up conspiracy, when I said no such thing. This is acting like the matter is no longer open to debate and discussion. There are valid concerns with the state of the science. I am not frothing at the mouth spouting exaggerated, incorrect crap. I am not conspiracy theorizing. The matter is by no means concluded. This does not make me or others who are not convinced into deniers, or pseudo-scientists, or "non-scientific people frothing at the mouth". Immediately writing off anyone who isn't convinced in climate change does not help its cause - it sets off red flags in people who are not convinced and wish to look closer at the science.