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One thing I don't understand is the position of the big car makers(BMW, MB, AUDI) being a passive observer in this field. Tesla is getting so much, that if any

• bravo22 11y ago
  The batteries in a Tesla aren't very green and sadly they are quite large. Big automakers think in volumes of millions of cars, Tesla delivers about 25K (EDIT: looks like 40K projected for this year[1]) cars a year. http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/05/12/tesla-earnings-review-small-margin-production-improvements-in-q1-too-small-for-2015-targets/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/05/12/tes...
  • chambo622 11y ago
    Try ~55k this year
    • bravo22 11y ago
      Maybe that is sold? Per this [1] article from May their delivery per quarter is about 10K units, so about 40K/yr. I'll update my reply. http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/05/12/tesla-earnings-review-small-margin-production-improvements-in-q1-too-small-for-2015-targets/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/05/12/tes...
      • eatmyshorts 11y ago
        According to Tesla's own statements, they are planning to deliver 55k this year, and their Q2 deliveries of 11,507 puts them on track (by their own estimates). I would assume some of those deliveries will be for the Model X, which is supposed to start shipping in Q3. Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sets-a-new-record-for-car-deliveries-in-second-quarter-2015-7 http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sets-a-new-record-for-c...
  • CydeWeys 11y ago
    Isn't it an overstatement that the batteries aren't green? Yes, there are environmental impacts from the production, but still a lot less than the environmental impacts of all the oil that would otherwise be produced and burnt to fuel the car over its lifetime, no?
    • bravo22 11y ago
      Please see my other response in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9905275 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9905275
    • deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
    • rybosome 11y ago
      That's my understanding, but it's important to keep this in mind when touting the merits of battery tech. Of course, the battery production and charging process can become drastically more green (and will do so once the Gigafactory is operational), so even this is somewhat of a moot point.
    • Merad 11y ago
      But, isn't the lifetime of the battery pack significantly lower than the (presumed) lifetime of the actual car? If your Model S stays on the road 20 years but requires 3-4 battery replacements, that's several big hits against its environmental friendliness.
      • digikata 11y ago
        The lifetime of the battery will likely be much longer than it's life in the car - if the plans for 'second life' re-use as static energy storage devices come to pass.
      • CydeWeys 11y ago
        The lifetimes of battery packs have been greatly underestimated by detractors for quite some time. Hybrids have been on the US market since 1999, and battery life has never been a serious issue. The new batteries are far higher quality than the old ones anyway. 3-4 battery replacements over 20 years isn't anything close to what a Model S will require. Do you have a source for those figures?
  • wbeckler 11y ago
    The bestselling minivan only sells 110K units in a given year. That's not millions.
    • bravo22 11y ago
      In the US, and Minivans aren't the most popular type of cars. Here is just BMW sales in 2014: http://www.bmwgroup.com/e/0_0_www_bmwgroup_com/investor_relations/corporate_news/news/2015/vertriebsmeldung_dezember2014.html http://www.bmwgroup.com/e/0_0_www_bmwgroup_com/investor_rela...
      • Randuin 11y ago
        In what country is it the most popular type?
        • bravo22 11y ago
          Minivans are most popular is North America. The data cited is for US sales but my original argument was worldwide sales.
    • toast0 11y ago
      Not sure if these are correct figures, but http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/01/usa-minivan-sales-figures-december-2014-year-end.html http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/01/usa-minivan-sales-figur... says the Chrysler Town & Country sold 138k, and the Dodge Caravan sold 134k, this appears to be US only data; and these two vehicles are really the same vehicle with different trim, so that's about 10 times the number of Tesla vehicles.
  • rjusher 11y ago
    What do you mean with not very green, I do know they carry chemicals inside, but the not very green part is the manufacturing or the battery itself. But Tesla is also working in a big battery factory, and I read this plant is very green. But how is the batteries less green than cars producing contamination. (The batteries could be worst, that's is something I haven't even considered)¿?
    • bravo22 11y ago
      The carbon footprint of producing the battery, even not considering the chemicals, is very large. So much so that you'd have to drive it on many years from a full-renewable source for you to break even with a regular car[1]. Tesla, sadly, maximizes the battery in their cars. My read is that their main goal is selling batteries and everything from opening their "patents" (i.e. their custom connectors/battery pack) to the home wall-pack is designed to do that. [1] http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/files/BatteryElectricV... (page 7 with relevant graph) Also http://www.enveurope.com/content/pdf/2190-4715-24-14.pdf http://www.enveurope.com/content/pdf/2190-4715-24-14.pdf (page 10/11)
      • cloudwalking 11y ago
        What about the carbon footprint of producing gasoline? You're missing half of the equation.
        • bravo22 11y ago
          The linked report compares BEVs with ICE and Hybrid. Hybrid beats both because of the smaller battery. BEVs have a very large upfront footprint due to the battery that needs to be paid off overtime by driving from a renewable source. However in US only 14% of energy comes from renewable sources, so it'll be a very long pay off. Hybrids are the best way to go until we make significant strides in batteries (20-30 years off?). You rely on your charged battery for most of your trips, and the highly optimized gas engine kicks in when you need the extra range/juice.
• csours 11y ago
  The biggest issue at the moment is the limited range with battery only. Even after a large network of charging stations is created, the user experience for long trips is not ideal - up to 1/4 of driving time may be spent charging. The ownership paradigm may change at some point, but at the moment people like the idea of using their own car to go around town as well as going on vacation / see the parents / etc across the state or nation. - Disclaimer - I work for GM
  • rjusher 11y ago
    You are completely right, even though I would like to own a car for my daily use, and a big car for trips and etc, is not feasible, for me at least, so I have to buy the best of both worlds. I disagree with the 1/4 of the time charging, with a solution like the Tesla's battery swap, it would be far less(I could be completely wrong in this).
    • tashoecraft 11y ago
      Tesla may axe the battery swap: http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-dead/ http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/teslas-battery-swap-is-dead/
• city41 11y ago
  Why do you say the other makers are passive? BMW, Mercedes, Nissan, VW, Ford and Fiat all have fully electric cars. Sure none of them get near the range the Model S does, but they are getting involved in this. A Nissan Leaf offers roughly one third the specs of a Model S, but also at one third the price. Seems like progress to me.
  • dntrkv 11y ago
    Problem with the Leaf is that a 75 mile range is unusable for most people. A 30 mile commute is pretty common, to and from work and you're almost out. Pick up kids and groceries and you'll probably be stuck on the side of the road somewhere. Forget to charge the car overnight and you're screwed. If we take the base Model S, which has a 230 mile range, 315hp, and 0-60mph in 5.5 seconds, it goes for $70k minus $10k in tax subsidies. And compare it to the Nissan Leaf SL which has a 84 miles range, 107hp, and 0-60mph in 10.2 seconds, it goes for $35k - $7.5k in tax subsidies. So it's exactly half the price, for much less then half the car. The Tesla has the highest safety rating out there. It handles really well. You get free charging station access. I mean, it doesn't even make sense to compare the cars. Even when you account for price, you are still getting way more than twice the car when you get the Tesla. Progress for me would be Nissan offering a car comparable to the Model S for a comparable price.
    • adevine 11y ago
      Saying "twice the car/half the car", like they're pints and quarts, doesn't really make sense, though. The Nissan Leaf is intended to be a city (or at least "close in suburb") car. With my 10 mile/20 minute commute, in a city with horrible public transportation, makes the Leaf ideal. Especially since I can afford a Leaf, a Model S not so much.
    • sokoloff 11y ago
      I bought a LEAF SL in Dec for $31K and change before $10K in credits. That was less than a third the cost of a Model S after rebates, IIRC. On the downside, range is closer to 75 miles in the winter (driving normally for MA, meaning fairly fast) and a pretty regular 90-95 miles in the summer. Overall, I love it. It's no Tesla and is not a economic winner over a good used car, but it's a damned good car and I think it's one of the most economic of the new cars, even with MA insane cost of electricity.
• srb- 11y ago
  I agree. Another crazy thing is that there is a shortage of Tesla-level batteries in the market right NOW. Yet aside from Tesla/Panasonic, no one else is ramping battery production to be able to produce millions of cars a year! So when Tesla's $35k car becomes a mainstream hit in 2018, I have no doubt big auto will react with compelling competitive vehicles. The problem is they won't have the battery infrastructure in place to sell more than 50,000 units, and it'll take them several years to catch up to Tesla's production volumes! That or purchase their packs from Tesla.
• ohsnap 11y ago
  Really hard for big companies to change. They have built a loyal brand around big gasoline engines. In fact the sound of the engine is so important to them that BMW pumps fake 'vroom' sounds into the i8 so it sounds like a v8. I'm not kidding.