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> The long-term winners will be companies like Flywheel that recognize this and focus on providing that service to existing operators, much like payment process

> The long-term winners will be companies like Flywheel that recognize this and focus on providing that service to existing operators, much like payment processors. I don't think this creates a very big moat - that's essentially what Uber started out as (dispatch for private driving companies that already existed); they started letting anyone drive in order to meet demand. If all the services are interchangable (and now, at least for ridesharing, it seems like they are), the winner will be the app that's used by default.

psadri 11y ago
Uber is different than Homejoy. You would use the same house cleaning professional over and over again but you will likely never ride with the same Uber driver again. This means that the Homejoy house cleaner can bypass Homejoy but the Uber drivers/users can't do without it.
- ProblemFactory 11y ago
  > you will likely never ride with the same Uber driver again. In theory, having your "own" driver would not be a bad thing. But the main difference is in scheduling. With taxis and Uber, you want a car to show up in 10 minutes at any time of the day without advance booking. This requires a large pool of drivers on standby and a middleman to handle the communication. A cleaner can visit pretty much any time during the week, and is usually pre-booked for every week indefinitely into the future. This doesn't need a middleman, since you can arrange the details directly.
Retric 11y ago
Defaults can change really quickly. Unlike Facebook Uber has basically zero network effect between cities. So, a competitor can win one or two small cities and just keep growing. Consider there are only 40,000 taxi drivers in New York. All it takes is for a company to find the top 5-50% of Uber/Lift drivers in a city offer them a minimum income of a few k/month assuming they take A% of rides and work y hours and boom instant driver network. Sure, doing it now when Uber is flush with cash is a bad idea, but after it pop’s there is no way they can stay competitive without paper thin margins long term.
- onewaystreet 11y ago
  If Uber "pops" it will be because the ride sharing industry died. There is no scenario where Uber becomes MySpace to a competitor.
  - Retric 11y ago
    There is no scenario that's rather optimistic of you. Don't get me wrong there currently very popular and profitable so they don't need to worry about a Pets.com style crash. However, the barriers to entry are relatively low just look at Lyft. Eventually investors are going to want to get their money back, so they either start issuing dividends or face a hostile takeover.
    - uptown 11y ago
      >and profitable Are they? Everything I've read indicates that they are not. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-30/uber-loses-money-as-it-grows http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-30/uber-loses-m...
      - x0x0 11y ago
        Actually, everything I've read says they are in mature cities. Leaked numbers say they're stupendously profitable in their oldest markets: nyc, sf, etc. They are losing money overall because they subsidize drivers when they move into new markets. But the key is always to look at existing markets. The quickest numbers I could find were leaked in 2014. est yearly rev run rate city ======================= ==== $212+mm sf $312 mm nyc $141 mm dc $150 mm chicago ======= ======= $815 mm total http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-rides-drivers-and-fares-2014-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-rides-drivers-an... edits: made table
        uptown 11y ago
        I guess the larger question is how do drivers respond when their rates get dropped after a market is mature. I imagine the answer is different depending on the market.

psadri 11y ago

Uber is different than Homejoy. You would use the same house cleaning professional over and over again but you will likely never ride with the same Uber driver again. This means that the Homejoy house cleaner can bypass Homejoy but the Uber drivers/users can't do without it.

ProblemFactory 11y ago
> you will likely never ride with the same Uber driver again. In theory, having your "own" driver would not be a bad thing. But the main difference is in scheduling. With taxis and Uber, you want a car to show up in 10 minutes at any time of the day without advance booking. This requires a large pool of drivers on standby and a middleman to handle the communication. A cleaner can visit pretty much any time during the week, and is usually pre-booked for every week indefinitely into the future. This doesn't need a middleman, since you can arrange the details directly.

Retric 11y ago

Defaults can change really quickly. Unlike Facebook Uber has basically zero network effect between cities. So, a competitor can win one or two small cities and just keep growing. Consider there are only 40,000 taxi drivers in New York. All it takes is for a company to find the top 5-50% of Uber/Lift drivers in a city offer them a minimum income of a few k/month assuming they take A% of rides and work y hours and boom instant driver network. Sure, doing it now when Uber is flush with cash is a bad idea, but after it pop’s there is no way they can stay competitive without paper thin margins long term.

onewaystreet 11y ago
If Uber "pops" it will be because the ride sharing industry died. There is no scenario where Uber becomes MySpace to a competitor.
- Retric 11y ago
  There is no scenario that's rather optimistic of you. Don't get me wrong there currently very popular and profitable so they don't need to worry about a Pets.com style crash. However, the barriers to entry are relatively low just look at Lyft. Eventually investors are going to want to get their money back, so they either start issuing dividends or face a hostile takeover.
  - uptown 11y ago
    >and profitable Are they? Everything I've read indicates that they are not. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-30/uber-loses-money-as-it-grows http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-30/uber-loses-m...
    - x0x0 11y ago
      Actually, everything I've read says they are in mature cities. Leaked numbers say they're stupendously profitable in their oldest markets: nyc, sf, etc. They are losing money overall because they subsidize drivers when they move into new markets. But the key is always to look at existing markets. The quickest numbers I could find were leaked in 2014. est yearly rev run rate city ======================= ==== $212+mm sf $312 mm nyc $141 mm dc $150 mm chicago ======= ======= $815 mm total http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-rides-drivers-and-fares-2014-11 http://www.businessinsider.com/uber-revenue-rides-drivers-an... edits: made table
      - uptown 11y ago
        I guess the larger question is how do drivers respond when their rates get dropped after a market is mature. I imagine the answer is different depending on the market.