This is related to the base rate fallacy, the maths of which is frequently misunderstood and can lead to very real consequences: http://metaist.com/blog/2010/0

This is related to the base rate fallacy, the maths of which is frequently misunderstood and can lead to very real consequences: http://metaist.com/blog/2010/02/disease-screening-base-rate-fallacy.html http://metaist.com/blog/2010/02/disease-screening-base-rate-...