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So this got me thinking... is there a way to forecast our space-travel capacity into the far future? Could we conceivably create a formula that takes into acco

So this got me thinking... is there a way to forecast our space-travel capacity into the far future? Could we conceivably create a formula that takes into account all of humanity's previous milestones of technological breakthrough's and the distances they have achieved for us.. and project where we could be 100, 500, 1000 yrs from now? Perhaps there is a vague velocity pattern we can derive from a plethora of historic data? *apologies for not being very articulate today..im still in awe!

Cthulhu_ 11y ago
A formula? No, probably not; the thing with space exploration is that it depends on the one hand on money, i.e. government funding or commercial exploitation, and on the other on physics - getting something into space, let alone propel it far away, is a very costly process when it comes to fuel and whatnot required - which increases exponentially the more you want to achieve out there. Although companies like Virgin Intergalactic and SpaceX are working hard on making it more affordable, thanks to some advancements. Still though, practically speaking, getting anything into orbit is hard enough. We'll probably see a manned Mars mission in our lifetime, but for anything beyond that you'll probably have to read science fiction.
- drjesusphd 11y ago
  > Still though, practically speaking, getting anything into orbit is hard enough. As the saying goes, "low Earth orbit is halfway to anywhere in the solar system".
vlasev 11y ago
The closest thing I know about, that's close to what you are talking about, is the wait calculation. Basically, if you assume that the velocity we can attain grows exponentially, and if you do a calculation, you'll find a "best time" when to launch. Assuming that the velocity grows with an exponential growth of 1.4%, equal to the current world economic growth, says that the earliest we would expect to get to the closest star is 1110 years from 2007, or 3117. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wait_Calculation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wait_Calculation

Cthulhu_ 11y ago

A formula? No, probably not; the thing with space exploration is that it depends on the one hand on money, i.e. government funding or commercial exploitation, and on the other on physics - getting something into space, let alone propel it far away, is a very costly process when it comes to fuel and whatnot required - which increases exponentially the more you want to achieve out there. Although companies like Virgin Intergalactic and SpaceX are working hard on making it more affordable, thanks to some advancements. Still though, practically speaking, getting anything into orbit is hard enough. We'll probably see a manned Mars mission in our lifetime, but for anything beyond that you'll probably have to read science fiction.

drjesusphd 11y ago
> Still though, practically speaking, getting anything into orbit is hard enough. As the saying goes, "low Earth orbit is halfway to anywhere in the solar system".

vlasev 11y ago

The closest thing I know about, that's close to what you are talking about, is the wait calculation. Basically, if you assume that the velocity we can attain grows exponentially, and if you do a calculation, you'll find a "best time" when to launch. Assuming that the velocity grows with an exponential growth of 1.4%, equal to the current world economic growth, says that the earliest we would expect to get to the closest star is 1110 years from 2007, or 3117. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wait_Calculation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wait_Calculation