5 ms·

I wonder what effect the current EU "offer" to Greece will have on Britain's vote down the line, or on other states that may now have second thoughts about join

by adamc 11y ago

I wonder what effect the current EU "offer" to Greece will have on Britain's vote down the line, or on other states that may now have second thoughts about joining the euro. From my (American) perspective, it looks like being part of the Euro means giving Germany an awful lot of influence over your fiscal policy.

mrec 11y ago
There is zero prospect of Britain joining the Euro; nobody's even talking about that. The possible upcoming referendum is about Britain leaving the EU.
- adamc 11y ago
  Yes, I know. My question (with respect to Britain) is whether this will have any effect on the vote.
  - tonyedgecombe 11y ago
    I doubt it, people know we aren't in the euro and aren't directly exposed to the Greek problem.
    - vidarh 11y ago
      But people also see this as a demonstration of the problems with the EU. As someone who would like to eventually see a federal EU, this whole situation has been exasperating because it has driven a lot of really pro-EU people I know to question whether the EU as whole ought to even survive if it doesn't reform after this.
      - youngtaff 11y ago
        Why do you want a federal Europe? I'm deeply opposed to the idea on many fronts but am genuinely interested in the opposite view.
  - lucozade 11y ago
    It definitely plays into the hands of the anti-EU brigade. Their whole spiel is that the EU is a bullying, un-democratic bureaucracy. The last few weeks have made it kind of hard to make the argument that it's a warm and fuzzy family of equals. Whether or not it'll have much of an effect on the vote, I'm not so sure. I doubt if many British identify with the Greek situation (in the sense that it could happen here, there's definitely a lot of empathy about). It's definitely seen as a consequence of the Euro (which we aren't part of) rather than the EU (which we are). My guess is that it's likely to have hardened those who were already in the pro/anti camps and confused those who are undecided. Possibly of more practical effect will be whether it makes the likes of Germany etc more inclined to negotiate the EU T&Cs with the UK prior to the referendum. The UK government want more flexibility in the arrangements. I can see political arguments both for giving a bit of slack so that the EU definitely stays together and for the Eurozone saying that it's flexibility that got them into their current mess.
smackay 11y ago
Open Europe has a "Brexit Barometer", http://openeurope.org.uk/today/open-europe-alert/ http://openeurope.org.uk/today/open-europe-alert/ There was a 2% increase in favour of leaving after the referendum in Greece. It has not been updated since but it will be interesting to see what the changes will be once the populists start trumpeting about the possibility of the UK being ruled by Germany. That means that England winning the World Cup in 1966 will all have been in vain ;)
roel_v 11y ago
Of course, that's why the Greeks so desperately wanted to get out of the Euro, and why new countries have to be added to the Euro by beating them until they join. Oh wait, no. Despite all the 'omg the Germans are holding poor pplz hostage!', the Euro has massively lifted the economic prospects of tens if not hundreds of millions of people in a measly 10 or 15 years. Ask the Polish how bad the Euro has been for them, for example. The fact of the matter is - if you want to play, you have to abide by the rules. And I for one am glad that at least the Germans have the spine to say 'this is what we agreed on, no you're not special and we're not going to give you special treatment that we wouldn't give to many other countries that are in much worse shape' (like in Africa or Asia). Ffs, even some of those countries are less corrupt than Greece. So, just because the Germans have gotten so much flak over the last few weeks, here's another sound: thank you, you guys do what others talk about but fail to uphold. (much like how the US is the only one with enough spine to actually go to war when it's necessary, but that's another topic...)
- bokononon 11y ago
  > Ask the Polish how bad the Euro has been for them, for example. Poland isn't in the Euro, its currency is the zloty.
  - roel_v 11y ago
    Uh oh, you're right and I was even in Poland not that long ago, I meant in the EU, but still an egg on my face.
- parasubvert 11y ago
  The projections of what "playing by the rules" will do for Greece in terms of recovery have been time and again completely wrong. "Follow by my rules and you'll only be subjected to a depression for a decade and a generation of people will be unemployed". When Europe implodes, again, we definitely know who to thank.
- CrLf 11y ago
  "the Euro has massively lifted the economic prospects of tens if not hundreds of millions of people in a measly 10 or 15 years" Actually, no. The Euro has been mostly negative for all but a few of the eurozone countries. Portugal is a good example of this, as it has its economy has regressed to pre-Euro levels and there is a growing consensus that the Euro will keep its net-negative effect for the forseable future. Nobody wants to get out of the Euro because of the exit shock and uncertainty, not because they see anything positive from staying inside. The Euro was built basically as a renamed Deutshe Mark and this has never been fixed. Right now it's clear that it never will. A strong currency is always bad for weaker economies, which is pretty evident in the Greek case.
junto 11y ago
It has no real bearing, but it does provide us with a view of what is going on behind the scenes in the tunnels of power in Brussels. Remember that Britain is planning on a referendum to stay or leave the EU, not join the Euro. That is highly unlikely to ever happen, and after recent events I think it is absolutely clear that the ECB cannot be trusted not to use the Euro as a weapon of mass economic destruction. I was a vehement believer in the concept of a united Europe. In some ways I still am, but only with regards to the base concepts of freedom of movement and freedom to work. I am British and I have taken advantage of the freedom of movement. I have lived in several countries in the EU. I haven't returned to the UK since 2004. That freedom is incredible, and I hope it doesn't change. The Euro though is a different matter. It is dividing the EU. It is creating the have's and have not's. It is being used as an economic nuclear weapon in order to force the will of one nations economic culture and expectations on to others. Greece made a mistake back in 2010. At that point they should have embraced the Grexit. They should have crashed and taken all the German and French banks with them. Now the foreign banks have no risk in Greece. The ECB has bought them all out and the ECB and IMF hold the Greek nation by the balls. If I was Greece I would implore Tsipras to follow Varoufakis' plan. It might not work, but it might just work, and I guarantee that another bail out is not going to change a damn thing, but move the current shit storm into a larger shit storm three years down the line.
- cuillevel3 11y ago
  > The Euro though is a different matter. It is dividing the EU. It is creating the have's and have not's. It is being used as an economic nuclear weapon in order to force the will of one nations economic culture and expectations on to others. Maybe it is, but the Greek problems started decades ago, years before the Euro.

by adamc 11y ago

mrec 11y ago

There is zero prospect of Britain joining the Euro; nobody's even talking about that. The possible upcoming referendum is about Britain leaving the EU.

adamc 11y ago
Yes, I know. My question (with respect to Britain) is whether this will have any effect on the vote.
- tonyedgecombe 11y ago
  I doubt it, people know we aren't in the euro and aren't directly exposed to the Greek problem.
  - vidarh 11y ago
    But people also see this as a demonstration of the problems with the EU. As someone who would like to eventually see a federal EU, this whole situation has been exasperating because it has driven a lot of really pro-EU people I know to question whether the EU as whole ought to even survive if it doesn't reform after this.
    - youngtaff 11y ago
      Why do you want a federal Europe? I'm deeply opposed to the idea on many fronts but am genuinely interested in the opposite view.
- lucozade 11y ago
  It definitely plays into the hands of the anti-EU brigade. Their whole spiel is that the EU is a bullying, un-democratic bureaucracy. The last few weeks have made it kind of hard to make the argument that it's a warm and fuzzy family of equals. Whether or not it'll have much of an effect on the vote, I'm not so sure. I doubt if many British identify with the Greek situation (in the sense that it could happen here, there's definitely a lot of empathy about). It's definitely seen as a consequence of the Euro (which we aren't part of) rather than the EU (which we are). My guess is that it's likely to have hardened those who were already in the pro/anti camps and confused those who are undecided. Possibly of more practical effect will be whether it makes the likes of Germany etc more inclined to negotiate the EU T&Cs with the UK prior to the referendum. The UK government want more flexibility in the arrangements. I can see political arguments both for giving a bit of slack so that the EU definitely stays together and for the Eurozone saying that it's flexibility that got them into their current mess.

smackay 11y ago

Open Europe has a "Brexit Barometer", http://openeurope.org.uk/today/open-europe-alert/ http://openeurope.org.uk/today/open-europe-alert/ There was a 2% increase in favour of leaving after the referendum in Greece. It has not been updated since but it will be interesting to see what the changes will be once the populists start trumpeting about the possibility of the UK being ruled by Germany. That means that England winning the World Cup in 1966 will all have been in vain ;)

roel_v 11y ago

Of course, that's why the Greeks so desperately wanted to get out of the Euro, and why new countries have to be added to the Euro by beating them until they join. Oh wait, no. Despite all the 'omg the Germans are holding poor pplz hostage!', the Euro has massively lifted the economic prospects of tens if not hundreds of millions of people in a measly 10 or 15 years. Ask the Polish how bad the Euro has been for them, for example. The fact of the matter is - if you want to play, you have to abide by the rules. And I for one am glad that at least the Germans have the spine to say 'this is what we agreed on, no you're not special and we're not going to give you special treatment that we wouldn't give to many other countries that are in much worse shape' (like in Africa or Asia). Ffs, even some of those countries are less corrupt than Greece. So, just because the Germans have gotten so much flak over the last few weeks, here's another sound: thank you, you guys do what others talk about but fail to uphold. (much like how the US is the only one with enough spine to actually go to war when it's necessary, but that's another topic...)

bokononon 11y ago
> Ask the Polish how bad the Euro has been for them, for example. Poland isn't in the Euro, its currency is the zloty.
- roel_v 11y ago
  Uh oh, you're right and I was even in Poland not that long ago, I meant in the EU, but still an egg on my face.
parasubvert 11y ago
The projections of what "playing by the rules" will do for Greece in terms of recovery have been time and again completely wrong. "Follow by my rules and you'll only be subjected to a depression for a decade and a generation of people will be unemployed". When Europe implodes, again, we definitely know who to thank.
CrLf 11y ago
"the Euro has massively lifted the economic prospects of tens if not hundreds of millions of people in a measly 10 or 15 years" Actually, no. The Euro has been mostly negative for all but a few of the eurozone countries. Portugal is a good example of this, as it has its economy has regressed to pre-Euro levels and there is a growing consensus that the Euro will keep its net-negative effect for the forseable future. Nobody wants to get out of the Euro because of the exit shock and uncertainty, not because they see anything positive from staying inside. The Euro was built basically as a renamed Deutshe Mark and this has never been fixed. Right now it's clear that it never will. A strong currency is always bad for weaker economies, which is pretty evident in the Greek case.

junto 11y ago

It has no real bearing, but it does provide us with a view of what is going on behind the scenes in the tunnels of power in Brussels. Remember that Britain is planning on a referendum to stay or leave the EU, not join the Euro. That is highly unlikely to ever happen, and after recent events I think it is absolutely clear that the ECB cannot be trusted not to use the Euro as a weapon of mass economic destruction. I was a vehement believer in the concept of a united Europe. In some ways I still am, but only with regards to the base concepts of freedom of movement and freedom to work. I am British and I have taken advantage of the freedom of movement. I have lived in several countries in the EU. I haven't returned to the UK since 2004. That freedom is incredible, and I hope it doesn't change. The Euro though is a different matter. It is dividing the EU. It is creating the have's and have not's. It is being used as an economic nuclear weapon in order to force the will of one nations economic culture and expectations on to others. Greece made a mistake back in 2010. At that point they should have embraced the Grexit. They should have crashed and taken all the German and French banks with them. Now the foreign banks have no risk in Greece. The ECB has bought them all out and the ECB and IMF hold the Greek nation by the balls. If I was Greece I would implore Tsipras to follow Varoufakis' plan. It might not work, but it might just work, and I guarantee that another bail out is not going to change a damn thing, but move the current shit storm into a larger shit storm three years down the line.

cuillevel3 11y ago
> The Euro though is a different matter. It is dividing the EU. It is creating the have's and have not's. It is being used as an economic nuclear weapon in order to force the will of one nations economic culture and expectations on to others. Maybe it is, but the Greek problems started decades ago, years before the Euro.