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I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in the pl

I hope things pan out the way the article predicts and I'm a massive optimist for EV adoption in the long term. However, there's some obvious wrenches in the plan for such quick adoption, including: - No great options currently for charging in apartments. Virtually the entire world is on an urbanisation trend, so this segment of potential EV owners is really important for adoption, and isn't being currently served. - People replace their cars at much slower rates than smartphones. I think there is a lot of potential for disruption in the transportation sector. Trucking companies and taxi fleets don't care if their vehicles are big, ugly and heavy (as they would be if outfitted with batteries), cost is the main factor. When EV running costs dip below the cost of ICE vehicles (and when battery density improves the range sufficiently), these guys are going to have a huge incentive to invest in EVs quickly. Also, if someone figures out how to build an electric jet in the next few decades, it will transform the airline industry who are currently held hostage by the price of oil. Perhaps airlines can compete on service rather than price gouging on "extras" that used to be covered by the cost of a ticket, to make up for razor thin margins. Airports could also be built closer to city centres, as the noise and air pollution concerns disappear.

dsr_ 11y ago
The key technology is battery storage. The energy storage density of gasoline/kerosene/jet fuel is immense, at least 6-7x the best available batteries. When someone announces a mass-production electrical storage system with 5-10x improvement, we can have electric aircraft as something other than a novelty.
bitslayer 11y ago
About the apartment thing; one plausible near future is self driving electric cars that scurry off after they drop you off and go find a plug.
Symmetry 11y ago
I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of weird. EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra money for a charger isn't that much. http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf
- justinator 11y ago
  > I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I've lived in many apartments, but I've never lived in an apartment that included access to a garage. Many of the apartments I've lived in only had parking available on the street.
  - Symmetry 11y ago
    I guess it's a matter of density? If you've only got two or three apartments in a building street parking works but for more than that it's really not feasible. If you like living in less dense areas that's great but my sense is that most of the urbanization that's happening is at densities where street parking isn't feasible.

dsr_ 11y ago

The key technology is battery storage. The energy storage density of gasoline/kerosene/jet fuel is immense, at least 6-7x the best available batteries. When someone announces a mass-production electrical storage system with 5-10x improvement, we can have electric aircraft as something other than a novelty.

bitslayer 11y ago

About the apartment thing; one plausible near future is self driving electric cars that scurry off after they drop you off and go find a plug.

Symmetry 11y ago

I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I'm guessing that a metering or coin operated overnight charger wouldn't cost that much more than a normal charger. There's also the possibility of workplaces providing chargers. Mine does but we're sort of weird. EDIT: Remember that a parking spot can easily cost over $10,000 so the extra money for a charger isn't that much. http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf http://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/HighCost.pdf

justinator 11y ago
> I'm not sure why you'd expect that apartment owners wouldn't put chargers in their garages? I've lived in many apartments, but I've never lived in an apartment that included access to a garage. Many of the apartments I've lived in only had parking available on the street.
- Symmetry 11y ago
  I guess it's a matter of density? If you've only got two or three apartments in a building street parking works but for more than that it's really not feasible. If you like living in less dense areas that's great but my sense is that most of the urbanization that's happening is at densities where street parking isn't feasible.