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I am one of the biggest Tesla fanboys out. Everything Geoff said is true but he makes it seem like this is around the corner and it isn't even close. At least 6

I am one of the biggest Tesla fanboys out. Everything Geoff said is true but he makes it seem like this is around the corner and it isn't even close. At least 60M cars are produced annually[0] and there are about 1B currently in the world[1]. A best case for tesla is to grow from ~50K cars to ~500K cars anually by 2020. There isn't an industrial base yet. Some other manufacturers will contribute of course, but even if 60m electric cars rolled out annually starting now and started replacing ICE cars, that will take (1B/60M) * years, which is 16years and 8months. The only way this could be sped up would be the rise of self-driving cars, an increase in public transport and the continuation of urbanization. If many manufacturers stopped making ICE cars and we used much less of them we could replace enough of the current fleet for it to be non-trivial in a few decades. [0]http://www.worldometers.info/cars/ http://www.worldometers.info/cars/ [1]http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/23/car-population_n_934291.html http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/08/23/car-population_n_934...

higherpurpose 11y ago
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-milli...
- vonklaus 11y ago
  right, to clarify I did factor this in. I mean that not only do self-driving cars work and meet regulatory scrutiny, but they bring about a shift in user behavior where most transportation is on demand and shared. That way less cars can work around the clock and people will not need as many of them. Also, this is a pretty lofty goal for tesla. They haven't produced working self-driving tech (the ones now work at low speed and highway but are not 100x better than humans), they don't have experience with high volume production, the gigafactory isn't complete yet, etc. I am really excited for this to happen, but I am not sure if when that clock sweeps over into new years 2021 there will half a million autonomous teslas. Would never bet against Musk though, hope I am wrong.

higherpurpose 11y ago

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-million-autonomous-electric-110000053.html https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/uber-ceo-tesla-sell-half-milli...

vonklaus 11y ago
right, to clarify I did factor this in. I mean that not only do self-driving cars work and meet regulatory scrutiny, but they bring about a shift in user behavior where most transportation is on demand and shared. That way less cars can work around the clock and people will not need as many of them. Also, this is a pretty lofty goal for tesla. They haven't produced working self-driving tech (the ones now work at low speed and highway but are not 100x better than humans), they don't have experience with high volume production, the gigafactory isn't complete yet, etc. I am really excited for this to happen, but I am not sure if when that clock sweeps over into new years 2021 there will half a million autonomous teslas. Would never bet against Musk though, hope I am wrong.