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That other company of which there was an article here a few months ago drove a car autonomously from LA to NYC. Volvo drives cars around Stockholm. BMW has self

by roel_v 11y ago

That other company of which there was an article here a few months ago drove a car autonomously from LA to NYC. Volvo drives cars around Stockholm. BMW has self driving cars on the road. There are self driving trucks right now at work on oil fields in Alaska and in mines in Australia. It's true that we're not really there yet. And yes there are hurdles like regulation, what about heavy rain etc. But the pace at which things are going...

toomuchtodo 11y ago
Freightliner has an autonomous semi-truck (the "Inspiration") working on Nevada roads currently: http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/freightliner-unveils-first-autonomous-semitruck-licensed-to-drive-itself-on-highways http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... It (for now) requires a human driver, but operates at autonomous level 3.
CountSessine 11y ago
No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.
- swombat 11y ago
  "A long way away" - only true in terms of linear extrapolations of current progress. Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO. The benefits of self-driving cars are so powerful that they will take over the world even faster than the electric vehicles described in this article...
- CountSessine 11y ago
  Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO 5 years is a fantasy. Continued exponential increases in device computing power is by no means guaranteed now that chips are at the 14nm feature size. And the recent progress in AI can only be partially attributed to improved computing power - much of it was from improved approaches to training neural networks. We could stumble into another AI winter and have to wait another 30 years for the next round of big algorithmic AI breakthroughs. I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    > I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more. Want to make a Long Bet on that? I'm willing to bet up to $1000 USD, loser pays winner's choice of 501(c)(3) US charity org, that self-driving cars will be mainstream in under 10 years.
    - ghaff 11y ago
      What do you mean by self-driving cars? As in highly assistive driving on highways so that you can not really pay attention most of the time whether that's legal or not? That I could (maybe) buy though it's a stretch given replacement cycles. But something I can summon with an app and take a nap? 50 years may be too soon.
      - toomuchtodo 11y ago
        "Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition
        ghaff 11y ago
        That's many decades away.
        toomuchtodo 11y ago
        My bet calls for under 10 years.
        hvidgaard 11y ago
        Now you just need to define "mainstream".
    - 11y ago
- mavhc 11y ago
  I assume each car will record its data and upload it. Handily google fiber has lots of upload capacity. Google will then aggregate changes in the maps.

by roel_v 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

Freightliner has an autonomous semi-truck (the "Inspiration") working on Nevada roads currently: http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/freightliner-unveils-first-autonomous-semitruck-licensed-to-drive-itself-on-highways http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... It (for now) requires a human driver, but operates at autonomous level 3.

CountSessine 11y ago

No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.

swombat 11y ago
"A long way away" - only true in terms of linear extrapolations of current progress. Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO. The benefits of self-driving cars are so powerful that they will take over the world even faster than the electric vehicles described in this article...
CountSessine 11y ago
Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO 5 years is a fantasy. Continued exponential increases in device computing power is by no means guaranteed now that chips are at the 14nm feature size. And the recent progress in AI can only be partially attributed to improved computing power - much of it was from improved approaches to training neural networks. We could stumble into another AI winter and have to wait another 30 years for the next round of big algorithmic AI breakthroughs. I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more. Want to make a Long Bet on that? I'm willing to bet up to $1000 USD, loser pays winner's choice of 501(c)(3) US charity org, that self-driving cars will be mainstream in under 10 years.
  - ghaff 11y ago
    What do you mean by self-driving cars? As in highly assistive driving on highways so that you can not really pay attention most of the time whether that's legal or not? That I could (maybe) buy though it's a stretch given replacement cycles. But something I can summon with an app and take a nap? 50 years may be too soon.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      "Level 4: The vehicle performs all safety-critical functions for the entire trip, with the driver not expected to control the vehicle at any time. As this vehicle would control all functions from start to stop, including all parking functions, it could include unoccupied cars." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car#Definition
      - ghaff 11y ago
        That's many decades away.
        toomuchtodo 11y ago
        My bet calls for under 10 years.
      - hvidgaard 11y ago
        Now you just need to define "mainstream".
  - 11y ago
mavhc 11y ago
I assume each car will record its data and upload it. Handily google fiber has lots of upload capacity. Google will then aggregate changes in the maps.