7 ms·

I've always thought that the Google cars have driven 95%+ of their miles in Mountain View, CA where every single aspect of the roads have been digitized, tested

by jtokoph 11y ago

I've always thought that the Google cars have driven 95%+ of their miles in Mountain View, CA where every single aspect of the roads have been digitized, tested and tweaked a million times over. If you stuck one of these cars in a brand new city, it wouldn't work nearly as well.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
How quickly could a fleet of Google vehicles ingest a major metros geographic data? Assume a similar project as Street View, with minimum wage drivers piloting the data collection vehicles without autonomous mode turned on. Days? Weeks? Under 6 months for sure. EDIT: Current street view coverage: https://support.google.com/maps/answer/68384?hl=en https://support.google.com/maps/answer/68384?hl=en
thaumasiotes 11y ago
Mapping the roads isn't challenging. How do you think humans perform at driving through brand new cities?
- CountSessine 11y ago
  Humans don't need cm-scale precise maps in cities to avoid jumping curbs and running into streetlamps. But that's still a requirement for all autonomous cars that have been demonstrated.
  - thaumasiotes 11y ago
    I don't see why this matters, though. cm-scale maps aren't hard to produce.
    - CountSessine 11y ago
      Aren't hard to produce everywhere?
      - swombat 11y ago
        Not much harder to produce than the current street view maps that are almost everywhere...
  - peterfirefly 11y ago
    Not all autonomous cars require that, either. Nor is there any reason whatsoever to believe it will be a requirement in the future.
    - CountSessine 11y ago
      No, but researchers agree that self-mapping or map-unassisted autonomous cars are much further off into the future than are perfect-map cars, like the ones Google is demonstrating. And the equipment (e.g. LIDAR) on the car is super-expensive. And has lots of moving parts. And is easily foiled. Etc.
- socrates2017 11y ago
  I think there is a meta learning curve to driving in brand new cities. I have learned to not try to make missed exits, not speed so that I have time to process signs, tolerate wrong turns, not make unnecessary lane changes, and generally just pay attention. It's also generally safer to drive either in the day or well lighted areas. The only near screw up was trying to pass a car and realizing the rental had no mid end torque. The car in the left lane honked at me.
mbreese 11y ago
And the weather is nice 99% of the time. I'd like to see a Google self driving car work in the rain or snow.
- bsder 11y ago
  You say this like people are good at driving in rain or snow. They are not. There is a reason for all of those pileup pictures whenever there is severe weather in the US. Self-driving cars are going to be WAY better in bad weather than any human could ever be. They will be able to "see" in conditions that humans couldn't dream of. They will be able to control steering far better on slick surfaces. They will be able to respond to emergencies far faster. I have said this before but it bears repeating, once we get self-driving cars, the insurance companies won't actually let you drive anymore.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    I tend to agree on the insurance front, but I suspect that it won't be a ban, just a higher rate if you choose to drive manually.
  - CountSessine 11y ago
    You say this like people are good at driving in rain or snow. They are not. I've driven in 42 winters on icy roads with thick snow and limited visibility, without the aid of GPS which has a funny way of disappearing in inclement weather. Google's cars have been demonstrated driving in exactly 0 winters under those conditions. Because they know it would be a disaster. There is a reason for all of those pileup pictures whenever there is severe weather in the US. They're driving too fast. But they knew that. They just decided to do it anyways. But they didn't drive that fast thinking that the snow was actually falling leaves or that the windshield was dirty or that the car was suddenly moving backwards, or any of the other ridiculous things that an AI will begin thinking when it falls out of a switch statement, encounters a case it wasn't trained on, or loses its GPS signal. Self-driving cars are going to be WAY better in bad weather than any human could ever be I have said this before but it bears repeating, once we get self-driving cars, the insurance companies won't actually let you drive anymore. I completely agree. One day they will be completely superior to human drivers. But that isn't today and won't be for years. Many years. Like decades.
roel_v 11y ago
That other company of which there was an article here a few months ago drove a car autonomously from LA to NYC. Volvo drives cars around Stockholm. BMW has self driving cars on the road. There are self driving trucks right now at work on oil fields in Alaska and in mines in Australia. It's true that we're not really there yet. And yes there are hurdles like regulation, what about heavy rain etc. But the pace at which things are going...
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Freightliner has an autonomous semi-truck (the "Inspiration") working on Nevada roads currently: http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/freightliner-unveils-first-autonomous-semitruck-licensed-to-drive-itself-on-highways http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... It (for now) requires a human driver, but operates at autonomous level 3.
- CountSessine 11y ago
  No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.
  - swombat 11y ago
    "A long way away" - only true in terms of linear extrapolations of current progress. Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO. The benefits of self-driving cars are so powerful that they will take over the world even faster than the electric vehicles described in this article...
  - CountSessine 11y ago
    Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO 5 years is a fantasy. Continued exponential increases in device computing power is by no means guaranteed now that chips are at the 14nm feature size. And the recent progress in AI can only be partially attributed to improved computing power - much of it was from improved approaches to training neural networks. We could stumble into another AI winter and have to wait another 30 years for the next round of big algorithmic AI breakthroughs. I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more.
ahmacleod 11y ago
There was a time when you could say the same about street view. Now they're working on the bottom of the ocean.
krschultz 11y ago
That's the whole innovation. They reframed the problem in order to make it easier. Everyone used to think about how to get the car to comprehend everything in the world. Google just provides the car a highly detailed map and then the car has fewer things to focus on. They replace some of the complexity by using huge amounts of data. It's a very 'Google' solution really. This is why Uber and others are scrambling to buy mapping companies. In the future the software goes hand in hand with a hyper detailed map.
nulltype 11y ago
I watched one of these a few days ago get stuck at a 4 way stop near Castro St. I think the human driver had to take over.

by jtokoph 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

How quickly could a fleet of Google vehicles ingest a major metros geographic data? Assume a similar project as Street View, with minimum wage drivers piloting the data collection vehicles without autonomous mode turned on. Days? Weeks? Under 6 months for sure. EDIT: Current street view coverage: https://support.google.com/maps/answer/68384?hl=en https://support.google.com/maps/answer/68384?hl=en

thaumasiotes 11y ago

Mapping the roads isn't challenging. How do you think humans perform at driving through brand new cities?

CountSessine 11y ago
Humans don't need cm-scale precise maps in cities to avoid jumping curbs and running into streetlamps. But that's still a requirement for all autonomous cars that have been demonstrated.
- thaumasiotes 11y ago
  I don't see why this matters, though. cm-scale maps aren't hard to produce.
  - CountSessine 11y ago
    Aren't hard to produce everywhere?
    - swombat 11y ago
      Not much harder to produce than the current street view maps that are almost everywhere...
- peterfirefly 11y ago
  Not all autonomous cars require that, either. Nor is there any reason whatsoever to believe it will be a requirement in the future.
  - CountSessine 11y ago
    No, but researchers agree that self-mapping or map-unassisted autonomous cars are much further off into the future than are perfect-map cars, like the ones Google is demonstrating. And the equipment (e.g. LIDAR) on the car is super-expensive. And has lots of moving parts. And is easily foiled. Etc.
socrates2017 11y ago
I think there is a meta learning curve to driving in brand new cities. I have learned to not try to make missed exits, not speed so that I have time to process signs, tolerate wrong turns, not make unnecessary lane changes, and generally just pay attention. It's also generally safer to drive either in the day or well lighted areas. The only near screw up was trying to pass a car and realizing the rental had no mid end torque. The car in the left lane honked at me.

mbreese 11y ago

And the weather is nice 99% of the time. I'd like to see a Google self driving car work in the rain or snow.

bsder 11y ago
You say this like people are good at driving in rain or snow. They are not. There is a reason for all of those pileup pictures whenever there is severe weather in the US. Self-driving cars are going to be WAY better in bad weather than any human could ever be. They will be able to "see" in conditions that humans couldn't dream of. They will be able to control steering far better on slick surfaces. They will be able to respond to emergencies far faster. I have said this before but it bears repeating, once we get self-driving cars, the insurance companies won't actually let you drive anymore.
- danieltillett 11y ago
  I tend to agree on the insurance front, but I suspect that it won't be a ban, just a higher rate if you choose to drive manually.
- CountSessine 11y ago
  You say this like people are good at driving in rain or snow. They are not. I've driven in 42 winters on icy roads with thick snow and limited visibility, without the aid of GPS which has a funny way of disappearing in inclement weather. Google's cars have been demonstrated driving in exactly 0 winters under those conditions. Because they know it would be a disaster. There is a reason for all of those pileup pictures whenever there is severe weather in the US. They're driving too fast. But they knew that. They just decided to do it anyways. But they didn't drive that fast thinking that the snow was actually falling leaves or that the windshield was dirty or that the car was suddenly moving backwards, or any of the other ridiculous things that an AI will begin thinking when it falls out of a switch statement, encounters a case it wasn't trained on, or loses its GPS signal. Self-driving cars are going to be WAY better in bad weather than any human could ever be I have said this before but it bears repeating, once we get self-driving cars, the insurance companies won't actually let you drive anymore. I completely agree. One day they will be completely superior to human drivers. But that isn't today and won't be for years. Many years. Like decades.

roel_v 11y ago

That other company of which there was an article here a few months ago drove a car autonomously from LA to NYC. Volvo drives cars around Stockholm. BMW has self driving cars on the road. There are self driving trucks right now at work on oil fields in Alaska and in mines in Australia. It's true that we're not really there yet. And yes there are hurdles like regulation, what about heavy rain etc. But the pace at which things are going...

toomuchtodo 11y ago
Freightliner has an autonomous semi-truck (the "Inspiration") working on Nevada roads currently: http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/freightliner-unveils-first-autonomous-semitruck-licensed-to-drive-itself-on-highways http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... It (for now) requires a human driver, but operates at autonomous level 3.
CountSessine 11y ago
No carmaker has a city-driving autonomous vehicle that doesn't require super-precise, cm-scale, unrealistically always-up-to-date maps for the AI. The autonomous super-size dump trucks drive along carefully pre-programmed routes using GPS. We're still a long ways away from practical and safe self-driving cars. AI and computer vision just isn't there yet.
- swombat 11y ago
  "A long way away" - only true in terms of linear extrapolations of current progress. Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO. The benefits of self-driving cars are so powerful that they will take over the world even faster than the electric vehicles described in this article...
- CountSessine 11y ago
  Think in terms of exponential progress, and we're about 5 years from the majority of trips being done by self-driving car, IMHO 5 years is a fantasy. Continued exponential increases in device computing power is by no means guaranteed now that chips are at the 14nm feature size. And the recent progress in AI can only be partially attributed to improved computing power - much of it was from improved approaches to training neural networks. We could stumble into another AI winter and have to wait another 30 years for the next round of big algorithmic AI breakthroughs. I guarantee you that self-driving cars will not be the mainstream even in 15 years. Probably more.

ahmacleod 11y ago

There was a time when you could say the same about street view. Now they're working on the bottom of the ocean.

krschultz 11y ago

That's the whole innovation. They reframed the problem in order to make it easier. Everyone used to think about how to get the car to comprehend everything in the world. Google just provides the car a highly detailed map and then the car has fewer things to focus on. They replace some of the complexity by using huge amounts of data. It's a very 'Google' solution really. This is why Uber and others are scrambling to buy mapping companies. In the future the software goes hand in hand with a hyper detailed map.

nulltype 11y ago

I watched one of these a few days ago get stuck at a 4 way stop near Castro St. I think the human driver had to take over.