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I don't see where causation entered the conversation. Correlation and causation have the same predictive power. If the water on Mars turns 90% of people into
by seanflyon 11y ago
I don't see where causation entered the conversation. Correlation and causation have the same predictive power. If the water on Mars turns 90% of people into men or 90% of the people that drink said water are already men, either way if you tell me you drank the water on Mars I know with a 90% certainty you are a man. Algorithms find both correlation and causal factors which is fine because I want accuracy whether or not it is based on causality.
- gohrt 11y ago> Correlation and causation have the same predictive power. Is only true in a system without feedback. If your response to observations can affect the subjets under study, then acting on the correlation can change the correlation. If you decide to offer everyone in Nairobi a $million to join your super-jumpers space-exploration program, because Nairobi correlates to high jump ability, you will find that low jumpers will flood into Kenya to collect on your offer. Whereas, no matter how much you abuse the fact that gravity make things fall, you aren't going to make gravity stop making things fall.
- seanflyon 11y agoFeedback is just as much of an issue whether the relationship is correlation or causation. All correlations are either based on random chance (thus not statistically significant) or based on some causal relationship, even if we can't identify what it is. Could be A->B, B->A, C->A and C->B, A->C->B... Correlation and causation have the same predictive power.