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I used to live in Portland, and thought about this impending catastrophe a lot. Once -- under the influence of intoxicants, most likely -- I came up with a way
by nkoren 11y ago
I used to live in Portland, and thought about this impending catastrophe a lot. Once -- under the influence of intoxicants, most likely -- I came up with a way of dramatically reducing its impact. It's a batshit crazy solution which will never actually happen -- but even when I'm sober, I still think it would work.
Here's what I'm thinking: the major problem with a disaster like this is the uncertainty surrounding its timing. "Maybe it'll be some other generation's problem. Maybe we don't actually need to let it affect our thinking about where we live and what we build." This kind of thinking is expedient and economical right up to the point where it gets absolutely everybody killed.
There's a second, somewhat less fundamental problem: the causality count can depend dramatically on exactly when the earthquake happens. It'll be worse if it happens at high tide rather than low tide (the tsunami will reach farther). Worse if it happens at night rather during the day (darkness is harder for emergency services to cope with). Worse if it happens in the winter rather than the summer (more deaths from exposure), etc.
These problems aside, a 9.0 with a tsunami is eminently survivable. You just need to be in the right place at the right time, surrounded by the right types of buildings / geology / topography, when it happens.
Anyhow, how do we solve these problems? Stopping the earthquake is out of the question ... but making it happen isn't. So here's what I propose: we announce an exact date and time for the earthquake.
Give everybody, say, 30 years to prepare for it. That's a decent-enough timescale for the sort of population displacements which will need to happen. So we'll have the earthquake in 2045. Let's have it in the mid-summer, at 10AM during a low tide, to minimise all the timing-related casualties. Then, at the appointed time and date -- if the earthquake hasn't happened yet -- we set off howevermany scores of nukes it's been calculated to take, drilled into the subduction zone, to lubricate the fault enough for a full-fault rupture. Shouldn't take too much of a push to get things going.
Over the next 30 years, the absolutely certain foreknowledge of this event would alter the planning, policy, and insurance environments dramatically. Tsunami walls etc. would be built in areas which are planned to be defended. In areas which cannot be defended and must be abandoned, the property prices, development activity, and eventually population levels would gradually crash. Within defended / geological stable zones, buildings which you want to be standing in 31 years would still need to be retrofitted to survive a 9.0 quake; otherwise, they'd be torn down before that point. Finally, on the appointed day of the quake, everybody could gather in the most geologically-stable high-grounds they can find, and just sit back and watch the fun.
Of course there'd be a danger that the quake might arrive at a bad time before then -- but even if it does, the incremental changes in land-use and the built environment, which such a policy would provoke, would result in far fewer casualties than our current trajectory.
Alas, it'll never happen, if only because a policy which results in the intentional destruction of millions of peoples' homes is a bit difficult to sell in a democracy, even if it would save tens to hundreds of thousands of lives.
- mikeash 11y agoI think the other problem with your idea is that people won't behave as if it's inevitable, because they'll know that there's at least the possibility of having the event postponed or canceled. Worse, the more people who refrain from preparing, the better the odds are of getting a postponement or cancellation. I like the idea, though. I proposed something similar in another earthquake-related HN thread a while back. If you can't stop or predict natural disasters, make them predictable by causing them yourself!
- mindcrime 11y agoI like the idea, though. I proposed something similar in another earthquake-related HN thread a while back. If you can't stop or predict natural disasters, make them predictable by causing them yourself! We already do a certain measure of that in terms of wildfires. Regular "controlled burns" to reduce fuel load (among other reasons) are a routine part of forest management practices. See, for example: http://ncprescribedfirecouncil.org/newsletter_stories/Spring2011/penderwildfireedited.pdf http://ncprescribedfirecouncil.org/newsletter_stories/Spring...
- nestlequ1k 11y agoIdea is fascinating. Aside from the political unfeasibility (people won't be convinced an earthquake will ever happen here), I'd be worried about technical execution. Could we really cause an earthquake? How many nukes would it take? How much would the operation cost? What if someone steals a nuke while they are installing it (add some more to security cost)? What if we can't predict how it will react and end up causing more damage? Could go on and on with these questions for an hour. And each of these questions means more time / money to come up with solutions. The easy, stupid, and probably correct answer is... let nature sort it out. Our species is great at surviving and rebuilding. Better to worry about stuff we can control and fix than try to attempt to control things wildly beyond our means.
- cossatot 11y agoExcellent book by John McPhee on the general topic of your last paragraph: http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77.The_Control_of_Nature http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77.The_Control_of_Nature