California's earthquake and the man who saw it coming. I'd only believe in the value of a financial prediction if a) it was timely and actionable and b) the pe

California's earthquake and the man who saw it coming. I'd only believe in the value of a financial prediction if a) it was timely and actionable and b) the person making the prediction has made scores of similar predictions satisfying point a) Anyone can get lucky predicting a disaster once, that says nothing of the persons ability to model and predict actual useful scenarios. We all know there will be boom bust cycles. They exist in human endeavors, they exist in ecosystem predator/prey relationships. It's interesting to look at the causes, but predictions like this are only worthwhile to the individual if they can tell you the best time to get out.