7 ms·

What Not To Build

200 points by vorador 17y ago

Kliment 17y ago
Very insightful article about ideas that sound good but are actually a dead end.
pg 17y ago
Many of these are good, but a couple are wrong. We've funded both a social network (http://dailybooth.com http://dailybooth.com) and a travel site (still only soft launched) and they're both doing well so far.
- bhousel 17y ago
  In regard to social networking, I think the author means "Don't build a generic social network (Facebook, MySpace, Orkut, Friendster, etc)" We have enough of those, and I think Social Booth doesn't really fit in to that category. All useful modern web apps have elements of "social network" in them.
  - cpach 17y ago
    Good point. Facebook can't be all things to all people, so I definitively think there's room for niched community sites. Facebook hasn't crushed Flickr, for example.
- tjogin 17y ago
  He's not really saying it's impossible to succeed at these things. Only that there are other ideas out there with far better conditions and chances.
  - teej 17y ago
    I simply don't see the reasoning behind high competition = low chances. The whole idea of web startups is to be able to move fast around big, slow competition.
    - tjogin 17y ago
      Then by all means, out-facebook Facebook. I'll be cheering for you.
- alexro 17y ago
  And Posterous can be counted as a counter-example too, couldn't it?
- flooha 17y ago
  I imagine having YC behind you makes a significant difference.
  - cpach 17y ago
    Could you be more specific, please? I too think YC backing can be a great advantage, but surely it's not impossible to »make something people want« without it.
- projectileboy 17y ago
  I hate to be the one to defend Java, but he's so wrong about this one that it's laughable. He and I and you and all kinds of people use Java apps every single day; they just happen to be server-based.
rriepe 17y ago
Great suggestions and observations. But I'll remind everyone, especially those considering a startup, that they're not rules. Most likely, this article will be horribly wrong on at least one point in five years. It could be wrong because of your idea.
JoelSutherland 17y ago
On the surface this list makes a lot of sense. Each category of things not to build comes with a couple of examples of giant competitors: Wikipedia, Wordpress, Expedia... If I were to build a startup in one of these categories, these would be the examples I would think of in the bar-napkin stage. They are obvious. I don't think 280 North will see this post and think "jQuery! We forgot about jQuery!" There is always room for something giant and disruptive. More commonly there is always room for something small and sustainable.
fragmede 17y ago
(note the Jan 4th post date) 2 things not to build seem contradictory: Don't build a platform-specific app Don't build a new standard While I can see limited usefulness of yet another markup standard xqrhtml43, generic apps, as opposed to platform-specific, have to look to standards to work upon. What should be read, however, is when building a new standard, extend existing standards to meet your needs, if at all possible, and make sure there is some sort of 'reference implementation' (ie, yours).
yannis 17y ago
I found this point quite interesting and thought provoking: 'From the point of view of the internet, 'you' are a concept - the one thing in the whole system that isn't actually a part of the system. How to leverage that will be the stuff of genius and innovation'. I will welcome any ideas as to how it can be leveraged.
TravisLS 17y ago
I think these are generally somewhat true, but with a lot of glaring counter-examples. As the companies that control these spaces get larger, there will always be room for smaller, disruptive competition, especially in more domain-specific areas. I'm reminded of an article from HN earlier this year wherein a Harvard Professor admitted telling Mark Zuckerberg he was chasing his tail trying to create a social network. (Anyone have this link?) In 2004, a plain old social network probably wouldn't have worked, but a Social Network of Ivy League colleges might.
rpledge 17y ago
Some good points, but I disagree with the what not to build section. If you have a great idea for one of these that is truly innovative, build it. Just because you'll have large competitors shouldn't stop you. Now if your idea isn't that ground breaking, that's a different story
- icefox 17y ago
  Think of it more as playing the odds. Yes Facebook will be surpassed one day, but we don't know when. Odds of succeeding to make the next facebook 1/5000 Odds of succeeding in building recommendation system for something that currently has no recommendation system 1/2. Thinking about both of these problems for a few days you can come up with tons of interesting angles and technical problems. Every once in a while a major player will be replaced one someone else, but every day someone else will have a sustainable business in a less competitive area.
rfreytag 17y ago
Roll the clock back 9 years and "Don't build a search engine" would have been on the list. Surprised it is not there now. To me it seems it is the exceptions to the common knowledge that so often seem to exceed the rest. Off the cuff: Japanese cars are cheap (answer: Lexus), markets are efficient (answer: Buffett), VC's need home runs (answer: Y Combinator?). I wonder how is each item on the OP's list might be mistaken and why?
- iron_ball 17y ago
  It's not there because at this point, it's self-evident. There may be a path to profitability for niche engines, or engines which do something quite different from the big players, but it seems ever more unlikely that a new direct rival to Google/Microsoft/Yahoo will arise. I mean, I get your point. But there's a difference between the pre-Google world and now: before Google, search sucked, and everyone knew it. Now, search is awesome. It's not really a pain point.
  - rfreytag 17y ago
    People were not aware of the potential for search before Google. They thought the market for search was over-supplied with options. Evidence is in some 10-year-old Red Herrings that mention: Alta Vista, Lycos, Web Crawler, DogPile, mySimon, etc., etc.. I was hard-pressed to make Google find anything 10-years-old+ from the web. And advanced search was no apparent help. Perhaps fodder for a rival? Clayton Christiansen might say that out of the niche of a rival which undermines Google's business model rises the Google-killer, or at least -queller.
  - gridspy 17y ago
    Google themselves have identified ways to make search better. Why text based search? Why not explore searches in a more interactive way? How about searching based on your existing thoughts and ideas? How can we make search work if you don't have a browser? You don't need to compete with all of Google to succeed in the search arena. It is sufficient to capture 0.01% of their market to make a couple of startup founders successful.
- ratsbane 17y ago
RyanMcGreal 17y ago
> There is a range of applications we might call Kantian applications - they depend on time and place. I quite enjoyed this.
Jach 17y ago
I think the article has good general advice but stuff you should really take with a grain of salt. As another commenter said, lots of counter-examples. When I was reading the "don't build edutainment" bit, I couldn't help but think of Brain Age.
- mechanical_fish 17y ago
  The list is funny. I kept expecting it to keep going and turn into a parody. Don't build edutainment. Don't build an iPhone application. Don't build a website. Don't build an application that runs on any platform that is already popular. Don't build anything that your customers can already understand. Don't build anything that's like anything that people currently find useful. Don't build anything that you expect to actually work. Don't build anything that might turn on you and force you to stake it through the heart before it devours your spunky sidekick. Don't build anything with a computer. Don't build anything.
  - deleted 17y ago
    [deleted]
  - evilslut82 17y ago
    :D :D
aarongough 17y ago
I think that the big take-away from this shouldn't be: "don't build an application in X market" it should be "build a niche application in X market". There's no way that you can compete easily with Facebook. But maybe there is an opportunity to build a social network for people that specifically don't want to share their real identities. Maybe you can't compete with Word, but how about a word processor specifically designed for vision impaired users? The internet is a huge marketplace. If you choose a good niche and cater to it then you'll more than likely find a enthusiastic audience.
GeneralMaximus 17y ago
I'll employ a well known Internet meme to describe this article: EPIC FAIL. Are the current technologies really the answer to our computing problems? Are Linux, Windows and OSX the "final" operating systems, Microsoft Word the "final" Word Processor, Facebook the "final" social network? No, seriously. I believe we can do better than this. In fact, I believe that the current crop of technologies are just a teaser of something better to come.
rdez6173 17y ago
Do: build a better mousetrap. It's the "better" and "mousetrap" that are the hard parts.
- RiderOfGiraffes 17y ago
  Actually the "build" isn't all that straight-forward either. A common observation is that ideas are easy, what really matters is execution. (Running through my head is that mousetraps execute mice - not sure that's helpful or useful.)
  - techiferous 17y ago
    The "a" part is also hard.
mechanical_fish 17y ago
This is, literally, incoherent. The iPhone is a "fad", because: most of the attention being paid to it has to do with applications and games, not telephony. A few paragraphs later, under the list of "dead technologies", we have... "telephony". Meanwhile, on his list of hot technologies is: alternative interfaces (where the guy actually cites the iPhone as an example!), portability, location-specific apps, intelligent recommenders, and sensor networks. All of which are being explored on the iPhone platform.
- jcromartie 17y ago
  Maybe he means the general glut of wholly worthless iPhone apps that merely translate some web app or some gimmick onto the device. As an iPhone developer, I agree that most of what is going on falls into the fad category. If that's what he is talking about, then he's right. Don't sink time into building such-and-such for the iPhone when you could be exploring any of the other worthwhile areas he outlines in the list.
  - mechanical_fish 17y ago
    If that is what he means, he could have said so. It would have been a much more coherent argument. Which is to say: +1. ;)
  - access_denied 17y ago
    And since when providing 'fadware (for lack of a better term) is an inherently bad thing? People are having fun with theire device, for a couple of bucks. Are we geeks critisizing anyone for /that/? C'om on.
- psyklic 17y ago
  By "telephony," he is referring to "in particular, dedicated lines and switched services." Note that he isn't saying that mobile devices are a fad, but that the iPhone in particular is a fad. He is recommending not to develop apps for it. As we have seen on countless articles on HN, betting on a single app's success is like playing the lottery.
rokhayakebe 17y ago
Don't build something you can't buy qualified traffic for and have a positive ROI.
robfitz 17y ago
Just an FYI, the article is 11 months old (which I think makes the article more interesting, as we can see the results of his predictions) And while I'm here, he isn't saying the iphone wasn't/isn't important, just that it probably isn't the the most fertile field to spend time building a business on.
diN0bot 17y ago
half an hour a post really shows.... does hn count as a destination site? cus i come here an awful lot.... also to webcomics websites.... i don't use a rss reader, i just rely on firefox's url bar autocompleting when i type a letter.
rantfoil 17y ago
Don't listen to lists telling you what you should or should not build. Any one of the points he lists could have been acceptable if explained, but so many are dismissive and not fully reasoned. For instance, it blows me away that people think cloud computing is a fad, when I know for a fact that computing power-on-tap has changed the way we and most of my startup friends do business.
clistctrl 17y ago
He mentions E-Government... I have thought about this subject for great length. My ultimate conclusion, is while it may certainly be possible to make it happen today. The idea itself is most likely not what is best (at least in todays world) My first idea on the topic was to make an open source platform for a virtual currency. I imagine the currency could be distributed via interest free loans. Transparency would be important. The key would seem to be convincing people to accept the currency, as it would have no value of its own... The system could on its own evolve into an E-Government as regular government experiences troubles. For instance the US seems to be heading towards an inevitable fate due to our growing national debt. As an ideal, this seems like a good idea (though i believe an economy based on debt is a bad idea, but couldn't think of an alternate method) but most people are not informed, and easily tricked. My solution to this was a competency test before you are allowed a vote. Of course, the test can be manipulated to a groups interests (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test)
markessien 17y ago
I've found that in technology, it's a bad idea to use negations. If you say things that should "not be done" or "will never happen" or "is not possible", at some point in the future, someone will quote you and laugh at you.
F_J_H 17y ago
He will no doubt be proven right on some things and wrong on others. In general though, if I had a big pot of money and had to decide on where to invest it, my decisions would likely fall along the same lines. Key here, as another commenter said, is not that success would be "impossible" but rather "improbable".
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
rev_null 17y ago
"You would need thousands of engineers and billions of dollars to compete with them." I don't think e-bay or amazon took thousands of engineers to build.
jasonlbaptiste 17y ago
Don't start a photo site- Flickr Don't start a search engine- Google Don't start a "social network"- Twitter Don't start a dating site- OkCupid Don't start a word processor- Zoho Don't start a blogging site- Posterous Don't start a storage site- Dropbox Don't start a project manager- Basecamp
- nwatson 17y ago
  For each company in this list there are another 50 failed attempts at cracking the same market. Several of which probably had the same or superior technical merits but the wrong business approach, had personality issues, or had plain bad luck. There are likely other less sexy product ideas where the expected return on investment is much larger because the ideas aren't as obvious or the fields addressed aren't your in your typical hacker domain and haven't gotten the loving care of good software development.
  - sirrocco 17y ago
    "For each company in this list there are another 50 failed attempts at cracking the same market" . I'm pretty sure you can say the same thing about almost all successful products in any market. Whenever I look at such a product, I'm sure that if I search hard enough I'll find the (at lease) 50 failed ones.
callmeed 17y ago
So, basically ... everything is good enough and established enough. Don't try to improve or compete. Yuck.
slay2k 17y ago
To quote Paul Buchheit, all such 'advice' is just someone's limited life experience expressed as a set of over-generalizations. If it was really this simple, VCs would have success rates upwards of 90%. All said, I can understand how someone who reads proposals for a living could come off sounding jaded. It's pretty easy to pass judgment, especially from the sidelines.
forensic 17y ago
Hell of a lot of words to pretty much just recover, "Build something people need."
zmimon 17y ago
Seems rather silly to say not to build a java application. Surely what matters is what the application does. If your idea will fail purely because of being implemented in Java then I think it must have some other rather serious issues with it. I can only think here he means some specific unstated context, but it sounds rather naive and ignorant as written.
johnl 17y ago
I like the "sensor data processing" one. Measuring, grouping and manipulating traffic whether on the web or on the street will give search much more dynamics.
chanux 17y ago
gist: Build around a problem that exists.
Tichy 17y ago
I must admit a lot of the points made me feel the exact opposite: if the general feeling is that "application X is done, finished", it seems to be a tremendous opportunity. It means that people are already blinded to the true possibilities in that area. They can only see the status quo and not see beyond it. Anybody entering the field with some revolutionary way of doing things might be able to grab a huge market share. They would not have any competition, because it never occurred to anybody to even consider innovating in that area anymore.
evilslut82 17y ago
imho not so great article, its still best to build all the things you use yourself. Third party scripts are a pain and take about the same time to check for errors, bugs and faults then writing some from scratch. I dont mean that you need to re-invent the wheel, but you can make a wheel that drives even better on your road..... instead of using a drupal to make your website....
chmike 17y ago
I understand this analysis as a heuristic and not rules to follow by the letter. Disruptive innovation can invalidate the analysis. For instance, I suspect such type of analysis would have classified web search as a no go domain when Sergey Brin and Larry Page started working on the google web search algorithm. There were plenty search engines provided by the big players at the time. The added value (or problem solving) criteria is a much better heuristic to determine where to go or not.
tcarnell 17y ago
The comment I left on his site: I think this is a pretty one dimensional view on the world of innovation. You say "dont build an operating system", but you also say "do build cloud computing technologies" - but what if the operation system was designed specifically for cloud computing, or for decision support systems? Why not build a better auction website? In your world would businesses still be doing manual payrole because 'we shouldn't innovate'?
xiaoma 17y ago
He really went off the deep-end in the last paragraph. Transportation has been getting much cheaper adjusted for inflation, regardless of whether one looks at bicycles, cars, subway tickets, train tickets, plane flights or cargo shipping. Any blind assertion that all these things will get more expensive is difficult to take seriously. Ditto for his comments about living in "closer communities" and individuals growing their own grapefruit. I suppose if the advance of technology ground to a halt, it could happen. What's far more likely, though, is that manufacturing and transportation will both continue to get cheaper, communities will be even less bound by geography and people who grow their own grapefruit won't be doing so for economic reasons.
limist 17y ago
Know your competition. I think that's the shortest summary of a mixed-bag of an article. And knowing your competition is mostly a marketing challenge, especially where the competition is virtual, like the NULL competition of non-consumption/non-use (of your product/service).

200 points by vorador 17y ago

Very insightful article about ideas that sound good but are actually a dead end.

pg 17y ago

Many of these are good, but a couple are wrong. We've funded both a social network (http://dailybooth.com http://dailybooth.com) and a travel site (still only soft launched) and they're both doing well so far.

bhousel 17y ago
In regard to social networking, I think the author means "Don't build a generic social network (Facebook, MySpace, Orkut, Friendster, etc)" We have enough of those, and I think Social Booth doesn't really fit in to that category. All useful modern web apps have elements of "social network" in them.
- cpach 17y ago
  Good point. Facebook can't be all things to all people, so I definitively think there's room for niched community sites. Facebook hasn't crushed Flickr, for example.
tjogin 17y ago
He's not really saying it's impossible to succeed at these things. Only that there are other ideas out there with far better conditions and chances.
- teej 17y ago
  I simply don't see the reasoning behind high competition = low chances. The whole idea of web startups is to be able to move fast around big, slow competition.
  - tjogin 17y ago
    Then by all means, out-facebook Facebook. I'll be cheering for you.
alexro 17y ago
And Posterous can be counted as a counter-example too, couldn't it?
flooha 17y ago
I imagine having YC behind you makes a significant difference.
- cpach 17y ago
  Could you be more specific, please? I too think YC backing can be a great advantage, but surely it's not impossible to »make something people want« without it.
projectileboy 17y ago
I hate to be the one to defend Java, but he's so wrong about this one that it's laughable. He and I and you and all kinds of people use Java apps every single day; they just happen to be server-based.

rriepe 17y ago

Great suggestions and observations. But I'll remind everyone, especially those considering a startup, that they're not rules. Most likely, this article will be horribly wrong on at least one point in five years. It could be wrong because of your idea.

JoelSutherland 17y ago

On the surface this list makes a lot of sense. Each category of things not to build comes with a couple of examples of giant competitors: Wikipedia, Wordpress, Expedia... If I were to build a startup in one of these categories, these would be the examples I would think of in the bar-napkin stage. They are obvious. I don't think 280 North will see this post and think "jQuery! We forgot about jQuery!" There is always room for something giant and disruptive. More commonly there is always room for something small and sustainable.

fragmede 17y ago

(note the Jan 4th post date) 2 things not to build seem contradictory: Don't build a platform-specific app Don't build a new standard While I can see limited usefulness of yet another markup standard xqrhtml43, generic apps, as opposed to platform-specific, have to look to standards to work upon. What should be read, however, is when building a new standard, extend existing standards to meet your needs, if at all possible, and make sure there is some sort of 'reference implementation' (ie, yours).

yannis 17y ago

I found this point quite interesting and thought provoking: 'From the point of view of the internet, 'you' are a concept - the one thing in the whole system that isn't actually a part of the system. How to leverage that will be the stuff of genius and innovation'. I will welcome any ideas as to how it can be leveraged.

TravisLS 17y ago

I think these are generally somewhat true, but with a lot of glaring counter-examples. As the companies that control these spaces get larger, there will always be room for smaller, disruptive competition, especially in more domain-specific areas. I'm reminded of an article from HN earlier this year wherein a Harvard Professor admitted telling Mark Zuckerberg he was chasing his tail trying to create a social network. (Anyone have this link?) In 2004, a plain old social network probably wouldn't have worked, but a Social Network of Ivy League colleges might.

rpledge 17y ago

Some good points, but I disagree with the what not to build section. If you have a great idea for one of these that is truly innovative, build it. Just because you'll have large competitors shouldn't stop you. Now if your idea isn't that ground breaking, that's a different story

icefox 17y ago
Think of it more as playing the odds. Yes Facebook will be surpassed one day, but we don't know when. Odds of succeeding to make the next facebook 1/5000 Odds of succeeding in building recommendation system for something that currently has no recommendation system 1/2. Thinking about both of these problems for a few days you can come up with tons of interesting angles and technical problems. Every once in a while a major player will be replaced one someone else, but every day someone else will have a sustainable business in a less competitive area.

rfreytag 17y ago

Roll the clock back 9 years and "Don't build a search engine" would have been on the list. Surprised it is not there now. To me it seems it is the exceptions to the common knowledge that so often seem to exceed the rest. Off the cuff: Japanese cars are cheap (answer: Lexus), markets are efficient (answer: Buffett), VC's need home runs (answer: Y Combinator?). I wonder how is each item on the OP's list might be mistaken and why?

iron_ball 17y ago
It's not there because at this point, it's self-evident. There may be a path to profitability for niche engines, or engines which do something quite different from the big players, but it seems ever more unlikely that a new direct rival to Google/Microsoft/Yahoo will arise. I mean, I get your point. But there's a difference between the pre-Google world and now: before Google, search sucked, and everyone knew it. Now, search is awesome. It's not really a pain point.
- rfreytag 17y ago
  People were not aware of the potential for search before Google. They thought the market for search was over-supplied with options. Evidence is in some 10-year-old Red Herrings that mention: Alta Vista, Lycos, Web Crawler, DogPile, mySimon, etc., etc.. I was hard-pressed to make Google find anything 10-years-old+ from the web. And advanced search was no apparent help. Perhaps fodder for a rival? Clayton Christiansen might say that out of the niche of a rival which undermines Google's business model rises the Google-killer, or at least -queller.
- gridspy 17y ago
  Google themselves have identified ways to make search better. Why text based search? Why not explore searches in a more interactive way? How about searching based on your existing thoughts and ideas? How can we make search work if you don't have a browser? You don't need to compete with all of Google to succeed in the search arena. It is sufficient to capture 0.01% of their market to make a couple of startup founders successful.
ratsbane 17y ago

RyanMcGreal 17y ago

> There is a range of applications we might call Kantian applications - they depend on time and place. I quite enjoyed this.

Jach 17y ago

I think the article has good general advice but stuff you should really take with a grain of salt. As another commenter said, lots of counter-examples. When I was reading the "don't build edutainment" bit, I couldn't help but think of Brain Age.

mechanical_fish 17y ago
The list is funny. I kept expecting it to keep going and turn into a parody. Don't build edutainment. Don't build an iPhone application. Don't build a website. Don't build an application that runs on any platform that is already popular. Don't build anything that your customers can already understand. Don't build anything that's like anything that people currently find useful. Don't build anything that you expect to actually work. Don't build anything that might turn on you and force you to stake it through the heart before it devours your spunky sidekick. Don't build anything with a computer. Don't build anything.
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]
- evilslut82 17y ago
  :D :D

aarongough 17y ago

I think that the big take-away from this shouldn't be: "don't build an application in X market" it should be "build a niche application in X market". There's no way that you can compete easily with Facebook. But maybe there is an opportunity to build a social network for people that specifically don't want to share their real identities. Maybe you can't compete with Word, but how about a word processor specifically designed for vision impaired users? The internet is a huge marketplace. If you choose a good niche and cater to it then you'll more than likely find a enthusiastic audience.

GeneralMaximus 17y ago

I'll employ a well known Internet meme to describe this article: EPIC FAIL. Are the current technologies really the answer to our computing problems? Are Linux, Windows and OSX the "final" operating systems, Microsoft Word the "final" Word Processor, Facebook the "final" social network? No, seriously. I believe we can do better than this. In fact, I believe that the current crop of technologies are just a teaser of something better to come.

rdez6173 17y ago

Do: build a better mousetrap. It's the "better" and "mousetrap" that are the hard parts.

RiderOfGiraffes 17y ago
Actually the "build" isn't all that straight-forward either. A common observation is that ideas are easy, what really matters is execution. (Running through my head is that mousetraps execute mice - not sure that's helpful or useful.)
- techiferous 17y ago
  The "a" part is also hard.

mechanical_fish 17y ago

This is, literally, incoherent. The iPhone is a "fad", because: most of the attention being paid to it has to do with applications and games, not telephony. A few paragraphs later, under the list of "dead technologies", we have... "telephony". Meanwhile, on his list of hot technologies is: alternative interfaces (where the guy actually cites the iPhone as an example!), portability, location-specific apps, intelligent recommenders, and sensor networks. All of which are being explored on the iPhone platform.

jcromartie 17y ago
Maybe he means the general glut of wholly worthless iPhone apps that merely translate some web app or some gimmick onto the device. As an iPhone developer, I agree that most of what is going on falls into the fad category. If that's what he is talking about, then he's right. Don't sink time into building such-and-such for the iPhone when you could be exploring any of the other worthwhile areas he outlines in the list.
- mechanical_fish 17y ago
  If that is what he means, he could have said so. It would have been a much more coherent argument. Which is to say: +1. ;)
- access_denied 17y ago
  And since when providing 'fadware (for lack of a better term) is an inherently bad thing? People are having fun with theire device, for a couple of bucks. Are we geeks critisizing anyone for /that/? C'om on.
psyklic 17y ago
By "telephony," he is referring to "in particular, dedicated lines and switched services." Note that he isn't saying that mobile devices are a fad, but that the iPhone in particular is a fad. He is recommending not to develop apps for it. As we have seen on countless articles on HN, betting on a single app's success is like playing the lottery.

rokhayakebe 17y ago

Don't build something you can't buy qualified traffic for and have a positive ROI.

robfitz 17y ago

Just an FYI, the article is 11 months old (which I think makes the article more interesting, as we can see the results of his predictions) And while I'm here, he isn't saying the iphone wasn't/isn't important, just that it probably isn't the the most fertile field to spend time building a business on.

diN0bot 17y ago

half an hour a post really shows.... does hn count as a destination site? cus i come here an awful lot.... also to webcomics websites.... i don't use a rss reader, i just rely on firefox's url bar autocompleting when i type a letter.

rantfoil 17y ago

Don't listen to lists telling you what you should or should not build. Any one of the points he lists could have been acceptable if explained, but so many are dismissive and not fully reasoned. For instance, it blows me away that people think cloud computing is a fad, when I know for a fact that computing power-on-tap has changed the way we and most of my startup friends do business.

clistctrl 17y ago

He mentions E-Government... I have thought about this subject for great length. My ultimate conclusion, is while it may certainly be possible to make it happen today. The idea itself is most likely not what is best (at least in todays world) My first idea on the topic was to make an open source platform for a virtual currency. I imagine the currency could be distributed via interest free loans. Transparency would be important. The key would seem to be convincing people to accept the currency, as it would have no value of its own... The system could on its own evolve into an E-Government as regular government experiences troubles. For instance the US seems to be heading towards an inevitable fate due to our growing national debt. As an ideal, this seems like a good idea (though i believe an economy based on debt is a bad idea, but couldn't think of an alternate method) but most people are not informed, and easily tricked. My solution to this was a competency test before you are allowed a vote. Of course, the test can be manipulated to a groups interests (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test)

markessien 17y ago

I've found that in technology, it's a bad idea to use negations. If you say things that should "not be done" or "will never happen" or "is not possible", at some point in the future, someone will quote you and laugh at you.

F_J_H 17y ago

He will no doubt be proven right on some things and wrong on others. In general though, if I had a big pot of money and had to decide on where to invest it, my decisions would likely fall along the same lines. Key here, as another commenter said, is not that success would be "impossible" but rather "improbable".

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

rev_null 17y ago

"You would need thousands of engineers and billions of dollars to compete with them." I don't think e-bay or amazon took thousands of engineers to build.

jasonlbaptiste 17y ago

Don't start a photo site- Flickr Don't start a search engine- Google Don't start a "social network"- Twitter Don't start a dating site- OkCupid Don't start a word processor- Zoho Don't start a blogging site- Posterous Don't start a storage site- Dropbox Don't start a project manager- Basecamp

nwatson 17y ago
For each company in this list there are another 50 failed attempts at cracking the same market. Several of which probably had the same or superior technical merits but the wrong business approach, had personality issues, or had plain bad luck. There are likely other less sexy product ideas where the expected return on investment is much larger because the ideas aren't as obvious or the fields addressed aren't your in your typical hacker domain and haven't gotten the loving care of good software development.
- sirrocco 17y ago
  "For each company in this list there are another 50 failed attempts at cracking the same market" . I'm pretty sure you can say the same thing about almost all successful products in any market. Whenever I look at such a product, I'm sure that if I search hard enough I'll find the (at lease) 50 failed ones.

callmeed 17y ago

So, basically ... everything is good enough and established enough. Don't try to improve or compete. Yuck.

slay2k 17y ago

To quote Paul Buchheit, all such 'advice' is just someone's limited life experience expressed as a set of over-generalizations. If it was really this simple, VCs would have success rates upwards of 90%. All said, I can understand how someone who reads proposals for a living could come off sounding jaded. It's pretty easy to pass judgment, especially from the sidelines.

forensic 17y ago

Hell of a lot of words to pretty much just recover, "Build something people need."

zmimon 17y ago

Seems rather silly to say not to build a java application. Surely what matters is what the application does. If your idea will fail purely because of being implemented in Java then I think it must have some other rather serious issues with it. I can only think here he means some specific unstated context, but it sounds rather naive and ignorant as written.

johnl 17y ago

I like the "sensor data processing" one. Measuring, grouping and manipulating traffic whether on the web or on the street will give search much more dynamics.

chanux 17y ago

gist: Build around a problem that exists.

Tichy 17y ago

I must admit a lot of the points made me feel the exact opposite: if the general feeling is that "application X is done, finished", it seems to be a tremendous opportunity. It means that people are already blinded to the true possibilities in that area. They can only see the status quo and not see beyond it. Anybody entering the field with some revolutionary way of doing things might be able to grab a huge market share. They would not have any competition, because it never occurred to anybody to even consider innovating in that area anymore.

evilslut82 17y ago

imho not so great article, its still best to build all the things you use yourself. Third party scripts are a pain and take about the same time to check for errors, bugs and faults then writing some from scratch. I dont mean that you need to re-invent the wheel, but you can make a wheel that drives even better on your road..... instead of using a drupal to make your website....

chmike 17y ago

I understand this analysis as a heuristic and not rules to follow by the letter. Disruptive innovation can invalidate the analysis. For instance, I suspect such type of analysis would have classified web search as a no go domain when Sergey Brin and Larry Page started working on the google web search algorithm. There were plenty search engines provided by the big players at the time. The added value (or problem solving) criteria is a much better heuristic to determine where to go or not.

tcarnell 17y ago

The comment I left on his site: I think this is a pretty one dimensional view on the world of innovation. You say "dont build an operating system", but you also say "do build cloud computing technologies" - but what if the operation system was designed specifically for cloud computing, or for decision support systems? Why not build a better auction website? In your world would businesses still be doing manual payrole because 'we shouldn't innovate'?

xiaoma 17y ago

He really went off the deep-end in the last paragraph. Transportation has been getting much cheaper adjusted for inflation, regardless of whether one looks at bicycles, cars, subway tickets, train tickets, plane flights or cargo shipping. Any blind assertion that all these things will get more expensive is difficult to take seriously. Ditto for his comments about living in "closer communities" and individuals growing their own grapefruit. I suppose if the advance of technology ground to a halt, it could happen. What's far more likely, though, is that manufacturing and transportation will both continue to get cheaper, communities will be even less bound by geography and people who grow their own grapefruit won't be doing so for economic reasons.

limist 17y ago

Know your competition. I think that's the shortest summary of a mixed-bag of an article. And knowing your competition is mostly a marketing challenge, especially where the competition is virtual, like the NULL competition of non-consumption/non-use (of your product/service).