This seems like a big stretch. Because there are a few similarities, we can predict 10-20 years of economic performance? As far as I know, even the most sophist

This seems like a big stretch. Because there are a few similarities, we can predict 10-20 years of economic performance? As far as I know, even the most sophisticted governments, econoimsts, investors, and businesses haven't cracked the code on predicting future economic performance. I also disagree on the similarities. They are/were very different countries. Japan was an advanced economy, with an advanced stock market, banking system, as well as a democratic government; China is a developing economy, with an immature banking system and market, and is run by a corrupt authoritarian dictatorship (is there any other kind?). The stock market is small relative to its economy[1]. Crucially, China's government's legitimacy comes mainly from economic performance -- that's their justification for ruling the country, nobody elected them. If it loses legitimacy and the people want a new government, there is no mechanism to replace it (such as the elections in democratic countries), creating a risk of political upheaval in the largest country and one of the largest economies in the world. [1] http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/chinas-stockmarket-crash http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/chinas-s...