4 ms·

Well, his hypotheses about the present are pretty banal: if we continue on present trends, we're in for some tough times. He cites over-fishing as an example.

by mark212 11y ago

Well, his hypotheses about the present are pretty banal: if we continue on present trends, we're in for some tough times. He cites over-fishing as an example. But of course we aren't strictly following those trends (interview is from mid-2013) particularly with respect to oil. Anybody remember "Peak Oil" and how we were supposed to be on a straight downward slope for supplies? Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. This isn't meant as a knock on either Dr. Diamond or on duaneb, just that his conclusions are pretty general and roundish. I find them provocative and appreciate the perspective.

mmanfrin 11y ago
> Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. Uh, source? We have a short term glut caused by production picking up, but our long term reserves haven't changed tangibly. There's about 1,324bil barrels in proven reserves (among the largest 17 reserves, ending with brazil at 13bil); global use is 95mb/d -- which is about 38 years of use. That's not 'stretching in to the far future'. (numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserves_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserve...)
Brakenshire 11y ago
My understanding is the peak oil predictions were at least vaguely correct for conventional oil, but the gap has been made up by tar sands and fracking.
icc97 11y ago
He didn't actually mention oil. It was only the following (at 3:26 in the video): - Fresh water - Fisheries - Forests - Top soil Top soil is certainly one I rarely hear mentioned. Beyond that the other three though banal are the most important so what else is he supposed to say? There's a lot of news and Elon Musk / Solar is doing very well at trying to get people to move off oil. But I don't hear of anyone near the same scale doing things to to solve the Fisheries / Forests / Water problems.
- trhway 11y ago
  Fisheries - looking at Norway coast i think we'll be able to scale fish farming to feed even 50B Earth population. Forests - well, too bad for them (and for us) Water - once it priced more correctly, like with oil/gas (we still have many socialized externalities even there of course), market machinery will start to pickup bringing up more efficient use as well as various projects to efficiently produce and geographically redistribute water (like moving the record snow from Boston to the record drought striken CA :)
- prawn 11y ago
  On fish, is part of the problem the success of marketing labels like "wild caught" and "ocean fresh", or John West's taglines implying quality but serious wastage? The first two imply that farm/factory-raised are inferior.

by mark212 11y ago

mmanfrin 11y ago

> Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. Uh, source? We have a short term glut caused by production picking up, but our long term reserves haven't changed tangibly. There's about 1,324bil barrels in proven reserves (among the largest 17 reserves, ending with brazil at 13bil); global use is 95mb/d -- which is about 38 years of use. That's not 'stretching in to the far future'. (numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserves_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserve...)

Brakenshire 11y ago

My understanding is the peak oil predictions were at least vaguely correct for conventional oil, but the gap has been made up by tar sands and fracking.

icc97 11y ago

He didn't actually mention oil. It was only the following (at 3:26 in the video): - Fresh water - Fisheries - Forests - Top soil Top soil is certainly one I rarely hear mentioned. Beyond that the other three though banal are the most important so what else is he supposed to say? There's a lot of news and Elon Musk / Solar is doing very well at trying to get people to move off oil. But I don't hear of anyone near the same scale doing things to to solve the Fisheries / Forests / Water problems.

trhway 11y ago
Fisheries - looking at Norway coast i think we'll be able to scale fish farming to feed even 50B Earth population. Forests - well, too bad for them (and for us) Water - once it priced more correctly, like with oil/gas (we still have many socialized externalities even there of course), market machinery will start to pickup bringing up more efficient use as well as various projects to efficiently produce and geographically redistribute water (like moving the record snow from Boston to the record drought striken CA :)
prawn 11y ago
On fish, is part of the problem the success of marketing labels like "wild caught" and "ocean fresh", or John West's taglines implying quality but serious wastage? The first two imply that farm/factory-raised are inferior.