5 ms·

Jared Diamond may be a celebrated author, but he's a terrible scientist. His "Guns, Germs, and Steel" carefully selects evidence supporting his geo-determinism

by duaneb 11y ago

Jared Diamond may be a celebrated author, but he's a terrible scientist. His "Guns, Germs, and Steel" carefully selects evidence supporting his geo-determinism theory. He was partially right—a civilization's resources have immense impact on the future—but the effects he's talking of are far, far too large to be supported in any serious way by archaeological and historical evidence. It's like pretending to teach macro-economics, but really teaching Marx. He seems to have drawn very far fetched conclusions from vague anthropological and archeological signals. I fear greatly for those who listen to his hypotheses about the present.

jjtheblunt 11y ago
"fear greatly"? A little hyperbole maybe? Wiser to at least listen, and then perhaps dismiss, or improve on ideas, no?
benbreen 11y ago
I have many mixed feelings about Diamond. GG&S basically inspired me to study what I do (history of globalization), but the more I do original research and talk to experts in the field, the less I think he actually got it right. Relatedly, I found this to be one of the better articles on the topic of what evidence Diamond's super big picture vantage point tends to miss, although it comes at it from the perspective of an anthropologist rather than an historian: http://theappendix.net/issues/2013/4/anthropology-footnoted-jared-diamonds-the-world-until-yesterday http://theappendix.net/issues/2013/4/anthropology-footnoted-...
keithflower 11y ago
"Jared Diamond....a terrible scientist". What? No. I completely disagree, as would many others, and I've frankly never read a more balanced work than GGS. But perhaps you could go ahead and educate us scientifically on what is more important than access to resources in determining the histories of peoples. He is the author of multiple, well-reviewed scholarly books, and hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published in journals like PNAS, Nature, and Science[1]. Other scholars have cited him thousands of times[4]. He is completely well-respected within the scientific fields he works in. National Geographic[2] notes: "Jared Diamond is professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is the author of Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed and the widely acclaimed Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, which won him a Pulitzer Prize as well as Britain's 1998 Rhone-Poulenc Science Book Prize. Diamond is the recipient of a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship (Genius Award); research prizes and grants from the American Physiological Society, National Geographic Society, and Zoological Society of San Diego; and many teaching awards and endowed public lectureships. In addition, he has been elected a member of all three of the leading national scientific/academic honorary societies—National Academy of Sciences, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and American Philosophical Society. Diamond's field experience includes 22 expeditions to New Guinea and neighboring islands to study ecology and evolution of birds; the rediscovery of New Guinea's long-lost golden fronted bowerbird; and other field projects in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia. As a conservationist, he devised a comprehensive plan, almost all of which was implemented, for Indonesian New Guinea's national park system. He has also taken part in numerous field projects for the Indonesian government and World Wildlife Fund. He is a founding member of the board of the Society of Conservation Biology and a member of the board of directors of World Wildlife Fund/USA and Conservation International." Awards and honors [3] 1975 Distinguished Achievement Award, American Gastroenterological Association 1985 MacArthur Foundation "Genius" Grant 1989 Archie F. Carr Medal 1992 Tanner Lecturer, University of Utah 1992 Rhône-Poulenc Prize for Science Books for The Third Chimpanzee 1992 Los Angeles Times Science Book Prize 1993 Zoological Society of San Diego Conservation Medal 1997 Phi Beta Kappa Science Book Prize for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 Pulitzer Prize for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 California Book Awards, Gold Medal in nonfiction for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 Aventis Prize for Science Books for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 International Cosmos Prize 1998 Elliott Coues Award, American Ornithologists Union 1999 Lannan Literary Award for Nonfiction 1999 National Medal of Science 2001 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement 2002 Lewis Thomas Prize for Writing about Science 2005 Elected Honorary Fellow, Trinity College, Cambridge, England 2006 Royal Society Prize for Science Books for Collapse (shortlisted] 2006 Dickson Prize in Science 2008 PhD Honoris Causa at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium 2013 Wolf Prize in Agriculture [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond_bibliography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond_bibliography [2] http://www.nationalgeographic.com/explorers/bios/jared-diamond/ http://www.nationalgeographic.com/explorers/bios/jared-diamo... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Awards_and_honors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Awards_and_honor... [4] http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Author/2759556 http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Author/2759556
- abecedarius 11y ago
  It's quite possible to be a prestigious bad scientist. Small-s science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. I'd mostly pick Diamond over his critics, FWIW, but I'm pretty ignorant myself.
- duaneb 11y ago
  He may be a good geographer, but he is known for his work in anthropology and history that is not peer reviewed and is nearly universally seen as a rhetorical success but analytic failure.
mark212 11y ago
Well, his hypotheses about the present are pretty banal: if we continue on present trends, we're in for some tough times. He cites over-fishing as an example. But of course we aren't strictly following those trends (interview is from mid-2013) particularly with respect to oil. Anybody remember "Peak Oil" and how we were supposed to be on a straight downward slope for supplies? Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. This isn't meant as a knock on either Dr. Diamond or on duaneb, just that his conclusions are pretty general and roundish. I find them provocative and appreciate the perspective.
- mmanfrin 11y ago
  > Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. Uh, source? We have a short term glut caused by production picking up, but our long term reserves haven't changed tangibly. There's about 1,324bil barrels in proven reserves (among the largest 17 reserves, ending with brazil at 13bil); global use is 95mb/d -- which is about 38 years of use. That's not 'stretching in to the far future'. (numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserves_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserve...)
- Brakenshire 11y ago
  My understanding is the peak oil predictions were at least vaguely correct for conventional oil, but the gap has been made up by tar sands and fracking.
- icc97 11y ago
  He didn't actually mention oil. It was only the following (at 3:26 in the video): - Fresh water - Fisheries - Forests - Top soil Top soil is certainly one I rarely hear mentioned. Beyond that the other three though banal are the most important so what else is he supposed to say? There's a lot of news and Elon Musk / Solar is doing very well at trying to get people to move off oil. But I don't hear of anyone near the same scale doing things to to solve the Fisheries / Forests / Water problems.
  - 11y ago
babo 11y ago
Somebody who makes a few hundred thousand people think differently about history is a great scientist.
- DanBC 11y ago
  For an extreme counter: Piltdown man? http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/science-of-natural-history/the-scientific-process/piltdown-man-hoax/ http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/science-of-natural-histor... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man
- duaneb 11y ago
  Science ≠ pop literature. A great man, perhaps, a great scientist? hardly.
icc97 11y ago
> He seems to have drawn very far fetched conclusions from vague anthropological and archeological signals. That's what Darwin had to do too.

by duaneb 11y ago

jjtheblunt 11y ago

"fear greatly"? A little hyperbole maybe? Wiser to at least listen, and then perhaps dismiss, or improve on ideas, no?

benbreen 11y ago

I have many mixed feelings about Diamond. GG&S basically inspired me to study what I do (history of globalization), but the more I do original research and talk to experts in the field, the less I think he actually got it right. Relatedly, I found this to be one of the better articles on the topic of what evidence Diamond's super big picture vantage point tends to miss, although it comes at it from the perspective of an anthropologist rather than an historian: http://theappendix.net/issues/2013/4/anthropology-footnoted-jared-diamonds-the-world-until-yesterday http://theappendix.net/issues/2013/4/anthropology-footnoted-...

keithflower 11y ago

"Jared Diamond....a terrible scientist". What? No. I completely disagree, as would many others, and I've frankly never read a more balanced work than GGS. But perhaps you could go ahead and educate us scientifically on what is more important than access to resources in determining the histories of peoples. He is the author of multiple, well-reviewed scholarly books, and hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published in journals like PNAS, Nature, and Science[1]. Other scholars have cited him thousands of times[4]. He is completely well-respected within the scientific fields he works in. National Geographic[2] notes: "Jared Diamond is professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles. He is the author of Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed and the widely acclaimed Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, which won him a Pulitzer Prize as well as Britain's 1998 Rhone-Poulenc Science Book Prize. Diamond is the recipient of a MacArthur Foundation Fellowship (Genius Award); research prizes and grants from the American Physiological Society, National Geographic Society, and Zoological Society of San Diego; and many teaching awards and endowed public lectureships. In addition, he has been elected a member of all three of the leading national scientific/academic honorary societies—National Academy of Sciences, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and American Philosophical Society. Diamond's field experience includes 22 expeditions to New Guinea and neighboring islands to study ecology and evolution of birds; the rediscovery of New Guinea's long-lost golden fronted bowerbird; and other field projects in North America, South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia. As a conservationist, he devised a comprehensive plan, almost all of which was implemented, for Indonesian New Guinea's national park system. He has also taken part in numerous field projects for the Indonesian government and World Wildlife Fund. He is a founding member of the board of the Society of Conservation Biology and a member of the board of directors of World Wildlife Fund/USA and Conservation International." Awards and honors [3] 1975 Distinguished Achievement Award, American Gastroenterological Association 1985 MacArthur Foundation "Genius" Grant 1989 Archie F. Carr Medal 1992 Tanner Lecturer, University of Utah 1992 Rhône-Poulenc Prize for Science Books for The Third Chimpanzee 1992 Los Angeles Times Science Book Prize 1993 Zoological Society of San Diego Conservation Medal 1997 Phi Beta Kappa Science Book Prize for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 Pulitzer Prize for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 California Book Awards, Gold Medal in nonfiction for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 Aventis Prize for Science Books for Guns, Germs and Steel 1998 International Cosmos Prize 1998 Elliott Coues Award, American Ornithologists Union 1999 Lannan Literary Award for Nonfiction 1999 National Medal of Science 2001 Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement 2002 Lewis Thomas Prize for Writing about Science 2005 Elected Honorary Fellow, Trinity College, Cambridge, England 2006 Royal Society Prize for Science Books for Collapse (shortlisted] 2006 Dickson Prize in Science 2008 PhD Honoris Causa at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium 2013 Wolf Prize in Agriculture [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond_bibliography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond_bibliography [2] http://www.nationalgeographic.com/explorers/bios/jared-diamond/ http://www.nationalgeographic.com/explorers/bios/jared-diamo... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Awards_and_honors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Awards_and_honor... [4] http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Author/2759556 http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Author/2759556

abecedarius 11y ago
It's quite possible to be a prestigious bad scientist. Small-s science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. I'd mostly pick Diamond over his critics, FWIW, but I'm pretty ignorant myself.
duaneb 11y ago
He may be a good geographer, but he is known for his work in anthropology and history that is not peer reviewed and is nearly universally seen as a rhetorical success but analytic failure.

mark212 11y ago

Well, his hypotheses about the present are pretty banal: if we continue on present trends, we're in for some tough times. He cites over-fishing as an example. But of course we aren't strictly following those trends (interview is from mid-2013) particularly with respect to oil. Anybody remember "Peak Oil" and how we were supposed to be on a straight downward slope for supplies? Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. This isn't meant as a knock on either Dr. Diamond or on duaneb, just that his conclusions are pretty general and roundish. I find them provocative and appreciate the perspective.

mmanfrin 11y ago
> Now the received wisdom is that we'll have a glut of supply stretching into the far future. Uh, source? We have a short term glut caused by production picking up, but our long term reserves haven't changed tangibly. There's about 1,324bil barrels in proven reserves (among the largest 17 reserves, ending with brazil at 13bil); global use is 95mb/d -- which is about 38 years of use. That's not 'stretching in to the far future'. (numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserves_by_country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Estimated_reserve...)
Brakenshire 11y ago
My understanding is the peak oil predictions were at least vaguely correct for conventional oil, but the gap has been made up by tar sands and fracking.
icc97 11y ago
He didn't actually mention oil. It was only the following (at 3:26 in the video): - Fresh water - Fisheries - Forests - Top soil Top soil is certainly one I rarely hear mentioned. Beyond that the other three though banal are the most important so what else is he supposed to say? There's a lot of news and Elon Musk / Solar is doing very well at trying to get people to move off oil. But I don't hear of anyone near the same scale doing things to to solve the Fisheries / Forests / Water problems.
- 11y ago

babo 11y ago

Somebody who makes a few hundred thousand people think differently about history is a great scientist.

DanBC 11y ago
For an extreme counter: Piltdown man? http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/science-of-natural-history/the-scientific-process/piltdown-man-hoax/ http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/science-of-natural-histor... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piltdown_Man
duaneb 11y ago
Science ≠ pop literature. A great man, perhaps, a great scientist? hardly.

icc97 11y ago

> He seems to have drawn very far fetched conclusions from vague anthropological and archeological signals. That's what Darwin had to do too.