I'm not sure why there won't just be a gradual shift to businesses offering services on a quasi-modern technology stack, and able to offer the same capabilities

I'm not sure why there won't just be a gradual shift to businesses offering services on a quasi-modern technology stack, and able to offer the same capabilities in a more-competitive fashion. Certainly in some industries like banking, certifying it and appeasing the auditors will be a huge deal, which is presumably why COBOL and RPG are still a big deal there today - but hey, maybe there will be other advantages when you move away from storing your records in EBCDIC, too. :P (EBCDIC - you know, the un-ASCII, designed after ASCII specifically to be backwards-compatible with the integers punched on punch cards.)