Speaking of validity, it's not immediately obvious to me that each citizen of an OECD country constitutes a valid Bernoulli trial. Applying a uniform empirical

Speaking of validity, it's not immediately obvious to me that each citizen of an OECD country constitutes a valid Bernoulli trial. Applying a uniform empirical prior of shooting rampage probability across the entire population strikes me as questionable. Presumably the results would be roughly convergent if he had done this with an inhomogeneous Poisson or something, but it seems a little handwavy to just fire off a binomial and call it good.