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> He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. Leverage better terms? I don't think you have any idea h

by r0naa 11y ago

> He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. Leverage better terms? I don't think you have any idea how much Tsipras has alienated France and Germany's public opinions. Now that supporting Greece has become synonym of political suicide, I believe that Greece has effectively very little leverage. After Tsipras' call to vote No, I would be surprised to see any negotiation happen in the near future.

hhandoko 11y ago
France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. If Greece defaults, most likely they will exit the Eurozone and this will be disastrous for Europe (Italy and Spain will be exposed in particular). Financially, it will send a ripple effect and the Euro will devalue as those debts can't be collected, i.e. written off. Politically, it will be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone.
- r0naa 11y ago
  > France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. Again, basic knowledge of the current public opinions of either countries on the subject strongly indicates the contrary. I do not have the background required to have an informed opinion about the economical consequences of such situation. Just stating the obvious from a pure political standpoint IMHO.
  - hhandoko 11y ago
    I'm not disagreeing with you on the public opinion of either France or Germany on Greece. But it is in their leader's (France and Germany's) best interest to `help` Greece despite the public's opinion, as public opinion does not always align to the needed course of action. In Greece's situation, the public opinion (by form of referendum) is used to cement their bargaining position, i.e. the people are ready to accept the repercussions of debt default if they don't get a better deal. Which is why the negotiation is continuing / will continue, otherwise it will be a terrible lose-lose situation for all.
nhaehnle 11y ago
Maybe German and French politicians really are sufficiently pissed off not to want to negotiate. The referendum did have one important effect though: it smashed any illusions that Syriza is the problem. Heck, the No vote in the referendum was significantly larger than the vote for Syriza in the elections this year! The problem is that the creditors insist on "squeezing blood from a stone", unwilling to reach an agreement that actually works, and the people of Greece insist that they won't accept that. Now, it's often said and true that in a democracy, the people of one country cannot be allowed to force their will onto the people of 18 other countries. But the facts are on the table; the Greeks have demonstrated that they won't budge. If the creditors won't budge either, it probably means total default and Grexit, something that ostensibly nobody wanted, but that is inevitable given how nobody was willing to make the necessary concessions to avoid it. In the medium to long term, the Greeks will probably be better off outside a dysfunctional currency union, and the Euro will either get fixed or dissolved after the next few crises.
youngtaff 11y ago
The problem is the German and French public have never been told or refuse to understand that the original bailout of Greece was a bail out of German, French and other banks. Greece was sacrificed to save the wider euro, and the German and French public should be grateful.
- nazgob 11y ago
  And what did Greece do with money it borrowed from German and French banks?
  - nisa 11y ago
    They bought german weapons and gave money to german firms.. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal
    - nazgob 11y ago
      Why they did that? Poor countries should not buy brand new German subs. Where are the subs now? As far as I now they are deployed in Greek Navy and like any sub are quite expensive to operate. Did Greece spend all borrowed money on German weapons?
  - youngtaff 11y ago
    Does it matter? When a bank makes a loan there's always a risk of losing money and that's priced into the load (or should be). 'moral hazard' should limit the amount of money banks are willing to lose and so willing to lend to people / companies / countries etc. The banks and european politicians seem to have forgotten about the hazard and instead bailed out those who lent money to Greece and left the public to pick up the cost.

by r0naa 11y ago

hhandoko 11y ago

France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. If Greece defaults, most likely they will exit the Eurozone and this will be disastrous for Europe (Italy and Spain will be exposed in particular). Financially, it will send a ripple effect and the Euro will devalue as those debts can't be collected, i.e. written off. Politically, it will be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone.

r0naa 11y ago
> France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. Again, basic knowledge of the current public opinions of either countries on the subject strongly indicates the contrary. I do not have the background required to have an informed opinion about the economical consequences of such situation. Just stating the obvious from a pure political standpoint IMHO.
- hhandoko 11y ago
  I'm not disagreeing with you on the public opinion of either France or Germany on Greece. But it is in their leader's (France and Germany's) best interest to `help` Greece despite the public's opinion, as public opinion does not always align to the needed course of action. In Greece's situation, the public opinion (by form of referendum) is used to cement their bargaining position, i.e. the people are ready to accept the repercussions of debt default if they don't get a better deal. Which is why the negotiation is continuing / will continue, otherwise it will be a terrible lose-lose situation for all.

nhaehnle 11y ago

Maybe German and French politicians really are sufficiently pissed off not to want to negotiate. The referendum did have one important effect though: it smashed any illusions that Syriza is the problem. Heck, the No vote in the referendum was significantly larger than the vote for Syriza in the elections this year! The problem is that the creditors insist on "squeezing blood from a stone", unwilling to reach an agreement that actually works, and the people of Greece insist that they won't accept that. Now, it's often said and true that in a democracy, the people of one country cannot be allowed to force their will onto the people of 18 other countries. But the facts are on the table; the Greeks have demonstrated that they won't budge. If the creditors won't budge either, it probably means total default and Grexit, something that ostensibly nobody wanted, but that is inevitable given how nobody was willing to make the necessary concessions to avoid it. In the medium to long term, the Greeks will probably be better off outside a dysfunctional currency union, and the Euro will either get fixed or dissolved after the next few crises.

youngtaff 11y ago

The problem is the German and French public have never been told or refuse to understand that the original bailout of Greece was a bail out of German, French and other banks. Greece was sacrificed to save the wider euro, and the German and French public should be grateful.

nazgob 11y ago
And what did Greece do with money it borrowed from German and French banks?
- nisa 11y ago
  They bought german weapons and gave money to german firms.. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal
  - nazgob 11y ago
    Why they did that? Poor countries should not buy brand new German subs. Where are the subs now? As far as I now they are deployed in Greek Navy and like any sub are quite expensive to operate. Did Greece spend all borrowed money on German weapons?
- youngtaff 11y ago
  Does it matter? When a bank makes a loan there's always a risk of losing money and that's priced into the load (or should be). 'moral hazard' should limit the amount of money banks are willing to lose and so willing to lend to people / companies / countries etc. The banks and european politicians seem to have forgotten about the hazard and instead bailed out those who lent money to Greece and left the public to pick up the cost.