7 ms·

I'm having trouble reading between the lines here. Was he given a push by being excluded from the recent meetings? Is the suggestion that he was actually a hind

I'm having trouble reading between the lines here. Was he given a push by being excluded from the recent meetings? Is the suggestion that he was actually a hindrance to Greece progressing? Is he saying he supports the move or that he 'has to'?

hhandoko 11y ago
He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. He understands that the last restructuring agreement terms is not acceptable. I would assume that he was probably being very vocal in meetings, thus certain parties would think that his presence might make future negotiations more difficult.
- r0naa 11y ago
  > He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. Leverage better terms? I don't think you have any idea how much Tsipras has alienated France and Germany's public opinions. Now that supporting Greece has become synonym of political suicide, I believe that Greece has effectively very little leverage. After Tsipras' call to vote No, I would be surprised to see any negotiation happen in the near future.
  - hhandoko 11y ago
    France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. If Greece defaults, most likely they will exit the Eurozone and this will be disastrous for Europe (Italy and Spain will be exposed in particular). Financially, it will send a ripple effect and the Euro will devalue as those debts can't be collected, i.e. written off. Politically, it will be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone.
    - r0naa 11y ago
      > France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. Again, basic knowledge of the current public opinions of either countries on the subject strongly indicates the contrary. I do not have the background required to have an informed opinion about the economical consequences of such situation. Just stating the obvious from a pure political standpoint IMHO.
      - hhandoko 11y ago
        I'm not disagreeing with you on the public opinion of either France or Germany on Greece. But it is in their leader's (France and Germany's) best interest to `help` Greece despite the public's opinion, as public opinion does not always align to the needed course of action. In Greece's situation, the public opinion (by form of referendum) is used to cement their bargaining position, i.e. the people are ready to accept the repercussions of debt default if they don't get a better deal. Which is why the negotiation is continuing / will continue, otherwise it will be a terrible lose-lose situation for all.
  - nhaehnle 11y ago
    Maybe German and French politicians really are sufficiently pissed off not to want to negotiate. The referendum did have one important effect though: it smashed any illusions that Syriza is the problem. Heck, the No vote in the referendum was significantly larger than the vote for Syriza in the elections this year! The problem is that the creditors insist on "squeezing blood from a stone", unwilling to reach an agreement that actually works, and the people of Greece insist that they won't accept that. Now, it's often said and true that in a democracy, the people of one country cannot be allowed to force their will onto the people of 18 other countries. But the facts are on the table; the Greeks have demonstrated that they won't budge. If the creditors won't budge either, it probably means total default and Grexit, something that ostensibly nobody wanted, but that is inevitable given how nobody was willing to make the necessary concessions to avoid it. In the medium to long term, the Greeks will probably be better off outside a dysfunctional currency union, and the Euro will either get fixed or dissolved after the next few crises.
  - youngtaff 11y ago
    The problem is the German and French public have never been told or refuse to understand that the original bailout of Greece was a bail out of German, French and other banks. Greece was sacrificed to save the wider euro, and the German and French public should be grateful.
    - nazgob 11y ago
      And what did Greece do with money it borrowed from German and French banks?
      - nisa 11y ago
        They bought german weapons and gave money to german firms.. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal
        nazgob 11y ago
        Why they did that? Poor countries should not buy brand new German subs. Where are the subs now? As far as I now they are deployed in Greek Navy and like any sub are quite expensive to operate. Did Greece spend all borrowed money on German weapons?
      - youngtaff 11y ago
        Does it matter? When a bank makes a loan there's always a risk of losing money and that's priced into the load (or should be). 'moral hazard' should limit the amount of money banks are willing to lose and so willing to lend to people / companies / countries etc. The banks and european politicians seem to have forgotten about the hazard and instead bailed out those who lent money to Greece and left the public to pick up the cost.
danieldk 11y ago
Good question. Another possibility: he knows there is nothing to win.
- _ak 11y ago
  My theory is that this was his endgame: the eurogroup is now forced to make a move, unless Merkel and her entourage want to go down in history as those that broke up the Euro by moralizing demands of having to pay back debts but could have prevented it. And Greece will use exactly this smugness as leverage for further negotiations.
  - WhoIsSatoshi 11y ago
    Maybe that wasn't his plan, but he can now see the very situation you depicted. I believe he was too proactive for a government that bases a lot on pretense (read - paperwork). Old world vs. New World.
  - jevgeni 11y ago
    The demands are not moralizing, but consistent. If other countries went through austerity, why should Greece be exempt? Imagine what will happen if everybody suddenly thought, that if they act aggressively and recklessly enough, everybody else would pay? It's a race to the bottom.
    - _ak 11y ago
      Because, in history, other countries were forgiven their debts, as well, especially so Germany. If Germany gets their debts forgiven after waging war over Europe, then why not Greece after living beyond their means? That would be consistent, as well. And helpful if it means it keeps the Euro zone together and relatively stable. And let's not forget how much of the help for Greece wasn't actual help, it was a bailout by proxy for German and French banks. How would the political climate in Europe be if these banks had needed an explicit bailout?
      - jevgeni 11y ago
ghshephard 11y ago
He refused to negotiate technical details of Austerity in Bargaining sessions, and continually lectured the Troika on the need to provide debt relief. When he says he wears the creditors loathing with pride, he really means it.
toyg 11y ago
As the most competent economist in the room in any negotiating meeting, he clearly made the mostly-incompetent politicians insecure. I mean, Schauble studied law and was an average accountant, Djesslbloem studied agricultural policies, Lagarde is a lawyer. When he suggested advanced financial instruments of policies, most of them could not understand what he was saying, hence the accusations of gambling and so on. In that sense, yes, he's better gone: he leaves while on top, having been vindicated by both economists (IMF report) and the public. I fear this might mean Greece will still have to swallow a bitter pill though.
- Svip 11y ago
  I think you are leaving out that he wasn't exactly a decent diplomat or politician, calling the creditors "terrorists" and publicly offended the German finance minister. In fact, I'd consider this the biggest reason he has come in disfavour with the other ministers.
  - adnzzzzZ 11y ago
    He didn't call them terrorists, that was a translation error that inflammatory media outlets didn't bother to correct.
    - Svip 11y ago
      I will concede that. However, I doubt he was speaking about the creditors in a nice manner. And regardless, it certainly wasn't his first diplomatic gaffe in his tenure as finance minister. However, if his words are commonly misrepresented, then he should be more careful when speaking publicly. Part of being a politician, and particularly a minister, means your every word will be scrutinised in every way. While he definitely had the ability as an economist, he did not when it came to being a politician nor a diplomat. But his resignation seems to confirm that he himself realises this.
      - socceroos 11y ago
        There's something to be said for not pussy-footing around imbeciles.
cperciva 11y ago
Is the suggestion that he was actually a hindrance to Greece progressing? Yes. The Troika wanted to negotiate, but Varoufakis didn't have the power to negotiate anything because the Greek prime minister reserved the right to veto anything which came out of the negotiations. First rule of negotitations: If you're serious about negotiating, you send someone who has the power to negotiate.
- nhaehnle 11y ago
  And yet, it is one of the most common and powerful negotiation strategies, and hence frequently suggested also on this site, to be able to say "sounds interesting, but I need to check that with my spouse/family/boss/prime minister".
  - cperciva 11y ago
    Yes. Pretending to negotiate while not in fact negotiating is a very effective negotiation tactic.
chvid 11y ago
To me it just seems immature, populist, random, yet he seems to have a huge fanbase?! As far as I can see it is much harder to reach a deal now that there is a precedence to have the negotiated deal rectified at a referendum.
- quonn 11y ago
  It's not like Greece just had to get this one deal and then they would have lived happily ever after. For Greece it's not enough to get _a_ deal. They have been getting those deals for 5 years, and a new one is negotiated every few months. The issue is to get a deal that actually works.
- mwfunk 11y ago
  Unfortunately those are the traits many people look for in a politician, although to be charitable they're usually confusing them with more noble traits like honesty or integrity. :( Flippancy, tribalism, and reductivism all too often look like bravery and insight from a great distance, at least among people who see politics as a war rather than as an unfortunate side effect of democracy.
- jevgeni 11y ago
  I completely agree. Any valid economic arguments he had, he himself made absolutely unsellable due to his behaviour.
  - socceroos 11y ago
    Bullshit. People need to sit down and be told they're being stupid. Being able to take it is another thing. Call him harsh, but the more I'm reading the more valid his points seem to be. If everyone else can't handle the truth then they're being fools. Is that true?
    - peterfirefly 11y ago
      Now imagine a universe, a parallel universe, if you like, in which the Greeks were the stupid ones... > If everyone else can't handle the truth then they're being fools.
shin_lao 11y ago
He called the creditors "terrorists", I'm pretty sure it didn't help.
- socceroos 11y ago
  I believe that was a translation error?
strictnein 11y ago
Maybe I'm being a little too snarky for these parts, but it's amazing how many Greek economics experts are hanging out on HN tonight.
- meric 11y ago
  [terrorism]'s original meaning, given in the Oxford English Dictionary as "government by intimidation".[1] On Thursday, Schulz told German daily Handelsblatt that the elected Syriza government should be replaced by “technocrat” government until stability is restored. “We should appoint governments of technocrats,” Martin Schulz told Handelsblatt. [2] [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/may/07/terrorism http://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/may/07/terrorism [2] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718296/EU-warns-of-Armageddon-if-Greek-voters-reject-terms.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718296/EU-war...
- prawn 11y ago
  I think it's brilliant that so many people here take an interest in news beyond the mundane, read what they can and trade opinions in a predominantly reasonable fashion. As someone really late to the party, I appreciate being able to gain snippets of info from my peers plus a few distilled links for when I have time to delve further.
nisa 11y ago
There was an article in the NYT that sheds some light into the issue: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/business/dealbook/hopeful-start-to-greek-debt-negotiations-quickly-soured.html?referrer&_r=0 http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/business/dealbook/hopef...
- socceroos 11y ago
  The article seems to contain a fair amount of hearsay, but you're right; it was enlightening. Thank you.

hhandoko 11y ago

He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. He understands that the last restructuring agreement terms is not acceptable. I would assume that he was probably being very vocal in meetings, thus certain parties would think that his presence might make future negotiations more difficult.

r0naa 11y ago
> He's content with leaving his position, that Greece now had some leverage to negotiate better terms. Leverage better terms? I don't think you have any idea how much Tsipras has alienated France and Germany's public opinions. Now that supporting Greece has become synonym of political suicide, I believe that Greece has effectively very little leverage. After Tsipras' call to vote No, I would be surprised to see any negotiation happen in the near future.
- hhandoko 11y ago
  France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. If Greece defaults, most likely they will exit the Eurozone and this will be disastrous for Europe (Italy and Spain will be exposed in particular). Financially, it will send a ripple effect and the Euro will devalue as those debts can't be collected, i.e. written off. Politically, it will be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone.
  - r0naa 11y ago
    > France and Germany has no option but to negotiate. Again, basic knowledge of the current public opinions of either countries on the subject strongly indicates the contrary. I do not have the background required to have an informed opinion about the economical consequences of such situation. Just stating the obvious from a pure political standpoint IMHO.
    - hhandoko 11y ago
      I'm not disagreeing with you on the public opinion of either France or Germany on Greece. But it is in their leader's (France and Germany's) best interest to `help` Greece despite the public's opinion, as public opinion does not always align to the needed course of action. In Greece's situation, the public opinion (by form of referendum) is used to cement their bargaining position, i.e. the people are ready to accept the repercussions of debt default if they don't get a better deal. Which is why the negotiation is continuing / will continue, otherwise it will be a terrible lose-lose situation for all.
- nhaehnle 11y ago
  Maybe German and French politicians really are sufficiently pissed off not to want to negotiate. The referendum did have one important effect though: it smashed any illusions that Syriza is the problem. Heck, the No vote in the referendum was significantly larger than the vote for Syriza in the elections this year! The problem is that the creditors insist on "squeezing blood from a stone", unwilling to reach an agreement that actually works, and the people of Greece insist that they won't accept that. Now, it's often said and true that in a democracy, the people of one country cannot be allowed to force their will onto the people of 18 other countries. But the facts are on the table; the Greeks have demonstrated that they won't budge. If the creditors won't budge either, it probably means total default and Grexit, something that ostensibly nobody wanted, but that is inevitable given how nobody was willing to make the necessary concessions to avoid it. In the medium to long term, the Greeks will probably be better off outside a dysfunctional currency union, and the Euro will either get fixed or dissolved after the next few crises.
- youngtaff 11y ago
  The problem is the German and French public have never been told or refuse to understand that the original bailout of Greece was a bail out of German, French and other banks. Greece was sacrificed to save the wider euro, and the German and French public should be grateful.
  - nazgob 11y ago
    And what did Greece do with money it borrowed from German and French banks?
    - nisa 11y ago
      They bought german weapons and gave money to german firms.. e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Greek_bribery_scandal
      - nazgob 11y ago
        Why they did that? Poor countries should not buy brand new German subs. Where are the subs now? As far as I now they are deployed in Greek Navy and like any sub are quite expensive to operate. Did Greece spend all borrowed money on German weapons?
    - youngtaff 11y ago
      Does it matter? When a bank makes a loan there's always a risk of losing money and that's priced into the load (or should be). 'moral hazard' should limit the amount of money banks are willing to lose and so willing to lend to people / companies / countries etc. The banks and european politicians seem to have forgotten about the hazard and instead bailed out those who lent money to Greece and left the public to pick up the cost.

danieldk 11y ago

Good question. Another possibility: he knows there is nothing to win.

_ak 11y ago
My theory is that this was his endgame: the eurogroup is now forced to make a move, unless Merkel and her entourage want to go down in history as those that broke up the Euro by moralizing demands of having to pay back debts but could have prevented it. And Greece will use exactly this smugness as leverage for further negotiations.
- WhoIsSatoshi 11y ago
  Maybe that wasn't his plan, but he can now see the very situation you depicted. I believe he was too proactive for a government that bases a lot on pretense (read - paperwork). Old world vs. New World.
- jevgeni 11y ago
  The demands are not moralizing, but consistent. If other countries went through austerity, why should Greece be exempt? Imagine what will happen if everybody suddenly thought, that if they act aggressively and recklessly enough, everybody else would pay? It's a race to the bottom.
  - _ak 11y ago
    Because, in history, other countries were forgiven their debts, as well, especially so Germany. If Germany gets their debts forgiven after waging war over Europe, then why not Greece after living beyond their means? That would be consistent, as well. And helpful if it means it keeps the Euro zone together and relatively stable. And let's not forget how much of the help for Greece wasn't actual help, it was a bailout by proxy for German and French banks. How would the political climate in Europe be if these banks had needed an explicit bailout?
    - jevgeni 11y ago

ghshephard 11y ago

He refused to negotiate technical details of Austerity in Bargaining sessions, and continually lectured the Troika on the need to provide debt relief. When he says he wears the creditors loathing with pride, he really means it.

toyg 11y ago

As the most competent economist in the room in any negotiating meeting, he clearly made the mostly-incompetent politicians insecure. I mean, Schauble studied law and was an average accountant, Djesslbloem studied agricultural policies, Lagarde is a lawyer. When he suggested advanced financial instruments of policies, most of them could not understand what he was saying, hence the accusations of gambling and so on. In that sense, yes, he's better gone: he leaves while on top, having been vindicated by both economists (IMF report) and the public. I fear this might mean Greece will still have to swallow a bitter pill though.

Svip 11y ago
I think you are leaving out that he wasn't exactly a decent diplomat or politician, calling the creditors "terrorists" and publicly offended the German finance minister. In fact, I'd consider this the biggest reason he has come in disfavour with the other ministers.
- adnzzzzZ 11y ago
  He didn't call them terrorists, that was a translation error that inflammatory media outlets didn't bother to correct.
  - Svip 11y ago
    I will concede that. However, I doubt he was speaking about the creditors in a nice manner. And regardless, it certainly wasn't his first diplomatic gaffe in his tenure as finance minister. However, if his words are commonly misrepresented, then he should be more careful when speaking publicly. Part of being a politician, and particularly a minister, means your every word will be scrutinised in every way. While he definitely had the ability as an economist, he did not when it came to being a politician nor a diplomat. But his resignation seems to confirm that he himself realises this.
    - socceroos 11y ago
      There's something to be said for not pussy-footing around imbeciles.

cperciva 11y ago

Is the suggestion that he was actually a hindrance to Greece progressing? Yes. The Troika wanted to negotiate, but Varoufakis didn't have the power to negotiate anything because the Greek prime minister reserved the right to veto anything which came out of the negotiations. First rule of negotitations: If you're serious about negotiating, you send someone who has the power to negotiate.

nhaehnle 11y ago
And yet, it is one of the most common and powerful negotiation strategies, and hence frequently suggested also on this site, to be able to say "sounds interesting, but I need to check that with my spouse/family/boss/prime minister".
- cperciva 11y ago
  Yes. Pretending to negotiate while not in fact negotiating is a very effective negotiation tactic.

chvid 11y ago

To me it just seems immature, populist, random, yet he seems to have a huge fanbase?! As far as I can see it is much harder to reach a deal now that there is a precedence to have the negotiated deal rectified at a referendum.

quonn 11y ago
It's not like Greece just had to get this one deal and then they would have lived happily ever after. For Greece it's not enough to get _a_ deal. They have been getting those deals for 5 years, and a new one is negotiated every few months. The issue is to get a deal that actually works.
mwfunk 11y ago
Unfortunately those are the traits many people look for in a politician, although to be charitable they're usually confusing them with more noble traits like honesty or integrity. :( Flippancy, tribalism, and reductivism all too often look like bravery and insight from a great distance, at least among people who see politics as a war rather than as an unfortunate side effect of democracy.
jevgeni 11y ago
I completely agree. Any valid economic arguments he had, he himself made absolutely unsellable due to his behaviour.
- socceroos 11y ago
  Bullshit. People need to sit down and be told they're being stupid. Being able to take it is another thing. Call him harsh, but the more I'm reading the more valid his points seem to be. If everyone else can't handle the truth then they're being fools. Is that true?
  - peterfirefly 11y ago
    Now imagine a universe, a parallel universe, if you like, in which the Greeks were the stupid ones... > If everyone else can't handle the truth then they're being fools.

shin_lao 11y ago

He called the creditors "terrorists", I'm pretty sure it didn't help.

socceroos 11y ago
I believe that was a translation error?

strictnein 11y ago

Maybe I'm being a little too snarky for these parts, but it's amazing how many Greek economics experts are hanging out on HN tonight.

meric 11y ago
[terrorism]'s original meaning, given in the Oxford English Dictionary as "government by intimidation".[1] On Thursday, Schulz told German daily Handelsblatt that the elected Syriza government should be replaced by “technocrat” government until stability is restored. “We should appoint governments of technocrats,” Martin Schulz told Handelsblatt. [2] [1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/may/07/terrorism http://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/may/07/terrorism [2] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718296/EU-warns-of-Armageddon-if-Greek-voters-reject-terms.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718296/EU-war...
prawn 11y ago
I think it's brilliant that so many people here take an interest in news beyond the mundane, read what they can and trade opinions in a predominantly reasonable fashion. As someone really late to the party, I appreciate being able to gain snippets of info from my peers plus a few distilled links for when I have time to delve further.

nisa 11y ago

There was an article in the NYT that sheds some light into the issue: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/business/dealbook/hopeful-start-to-greek-debt-negotiations-quickly-soured.html?referrer&_r=0 http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/business/dealbook/hopef...

socceroos 11y ago
The article seems to contain a fair amount of hearsay, but you're right; it was enlightening. Thank you.