3 ms·

Agreed, there are only 16 decades on record, so even if the average global temperature variation was random, there would be a 6.25% chance that the current deca

by mdemare 17y ago

Agreed, there are only 16 decades on record, so even if the average global temperature variation was random, there would be a 6.25% chance that the current decade is the warmest one.

jaiwithani 17y ago
Yes, but - http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46880000/gif/_46880316_glob_ave_temp2_466gr.gif http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46880000/gif/_46880316... We're warmer by a good margin, and the variation shows an extremely strong chronological correlation. Also note that the last few decades have been so warm (and affected the mean so much) that every decade prior to 1980 is now considered "below average". Decade-by-decade shows a clear trend, although the skeptical may not be satisfied with AGW as an explanation. Regardless, random variance isn't sufficient explanation.
swombat 17y ago
Here's some further data, based on indirect evidence rather than recording: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/temperaturevariations-in-past-centuries-and-the-so-called-hockey-stick/ http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/temper... As you can see on the graphs, the last decade is still the hottest.
- ErrantX 17y ago
  without wanting to labor a point (and that does cover a big portion of human civilisation, I agree) that is still far short of anything I would call "long scale". I do think we need more work to push it back at least to 10,000 years if possible (particularly because it is important to see the effect of NO organised civilization in comparison)
  - swombat 17y ago
    Truth (or at least data) comes to those who seek. A short google later: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_palaeotemps.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_palae... It's worth pointing out that if you go too far back in the past, the data is actually meaningless. 5 billion years ago, when it was still being formed, I'm sure the Earth was a lot hotter than it is now - but that doesn't mean we wanna go back there. The real questions are: 1) Is the climate changing? (very probably) 2) Could the changes cause great disruption, war, famine, loss of life, etc? (probably) 3) Is that climate change induced by us? (maybe, or "probably" depending on who you listen to) 4) Can we do something about it?

by mdemare 17y ago

Agreed, there are only 16 decades on record, so even if the average global temperature variation was random, there would be a 6.25% chance that the current decade is the warmest one.

jaiwithani 17y ago

Yes, but - http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46880000/gif/_46880316_glob_ave_temp2_466gr.gif http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46880000/gif/_46880316... We're warmer by a good margin, and the variation shows an extremely strong chronological correlation. Also note that the last few decades have been so warm (and affected the mean so much) that every decade prior to 1980 is now considered "below average". Decade-by-decade shows a clear trend, although the skeptical may not be satisfied with AGW as an explanation. Regardless, random variance isn't sufficient explanation.

swombat 17y ago

Here's some further data, based on indirect evidence rather than recording: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/temperaturevariations-in-past-centuries-and-the-so-called-hockey-stick/ http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/temper... As you can see on the graphs, the last decade is still the hottest.

ErrantX 17y ago
without wanting to labor a point (and that does cover a big portion of human civilisation, I agree) that is still far short of anything I would call "long scale". I do think we need more work to push it back at least to 10,000 years if possible (particularly because it is important to see the effect of NO organised civilization in comparison)
- swombat 17y ago
  Truth (or at least data) comes to those who seek. A short google later: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_palaeotemps.png http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/All_palae... It's worth pointing out that if you go too far back in the past, the data is actually meaningless. 5 billion years ago, when it was still being formed, I'm sure the Earth was a lot hotter than it is now - but that doesn't mean we wanna go back there. The real questions are: 1) Is the climate changing? (very probably) 2) Could the changes cause great disruption, war, famine, loss of life, etc? (probably) 3) Is that climate change induced by us? (maybe, or "probably" depending on who you listen to) 4) Can we do something about it?