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Nobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding

Nobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding to.

tptacek 11y ago
That seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned out lower than Greece had projected. Further, Greece had accumulated additional liabilities from pensions and tax refunds than they'd apparently stated when they announced their surplus. If you're not running a primary surplus, it's hard to see how you're paying loans without external assistance. Can you help me understand that claim a bit better?
- alexandros 11y ago
  First, as long as you're retracting your original statement about 8-10% deficit, we're good. I'm not going to argue 1.5% down or up. Nobody's talking about paying the loans and keeping the country going without help. What people are saying is that Greece can support itself, minus the loans.
  - tptacek 11y ago
    I think you've responded to the wrong comment. I never claimed an 8-10% deficit. Also: you haven't explained how Greece can support itself, minus the loans, while still running a deficit even before interest payments on those loans.
    - alexandros 11y ago
      You said there was no surplus, which I take to mean expenses == receipts. In that case, it's obvious how it will support itself (if you ignore the loans). Do you have sources for a deficit?
      - tptacek 11y ago
        That was 2014. In 2015 they're apparently tracking towards an actual primary deficit. The point of discussing the 2014 and 2013 numbers is to rebut the notion that Greece had somehow found stable footing, and were being victimized by punitive negotiations from the troika. I didn't introduce that idea to the thread, but I did object to it.
        alexandros 11y ago
        Yes, I think you will concede that 2015 is not a year to use for forward projections. The country has been paying loans without external help, the uncertainty means no investment incoming, tourism is hit, and people in the country are withdrawing cash from the banks and hiding it in their houses, not spending it. As for the punitive Troika, they had 5 years to run the country and they failed in every single projection they made. Every memorandum was meant to be the last, and they had the governments of their choice. How many more years of full cooperation do they expect before they accept that yes, perhaps the system isn't working. But I refuse to believe they're idiots at this point. The programmes are meant to appease the average German voter and serve as a warning to the Spaniards and Italians. Basically, punitive.
        tptacek 11y ago
        Why would I concede that? 2015 Greece has begun privatization and should be feeling the impact of other reforms started in the preceding years. We're only talking about primary budgets, not debt service. Why would I think Greece in 2015 would have poorer intrinsics than in the preceding years?
        alexandros 11y ago

Nobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding to.

tptacek 11y ago

That seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned out lower than Greece had projected. Further, Greece had accumulated additional liabilities from pensions and tax refunds than they'd apparently stated when they announced their surplus. If you're not running a primary surplus, it's hard to see how you're paying loans without external assistance. Can you help me understand that claim a bit better?

alexandros 11y ago
First, as long as you're retracting your original statement about 8-10% deficit, we're good. I'm not going to argue 1.5% down or up. Nobody's talking about paying the loans and keeping the country going without help. What people are saying is that Greece can support itself, minus the loans.
- tptacek 11y ago
  I think you've responded to the wrong comment. I never claimed an 8-10% deficit. Also: you haven't explained how Greece can support itself, minus the loans, while still running a deficit even before interest payments on those loans.
  - alexandros 11y ago
    You said there was no surplus, which I take to mean expenses == receipts. In that case, it's obvious how it will support itself (if you ignore the loans). Do you have sources for a deficit?
    - tptacek 11y ago
      That was 2014. In 2015 they're apparently tracking towards an actual primary deficit. The point of discussing the 2014 and 2013 numbers is to rebut the notion that Greece had somehow found stable footing, and were being victimized by punitive negotiations from the troika. I didn't introduce that idea to the thread, but I did object to it.
      - alexandros 11y ago
        Yes, I think you will concede that 2015 is not a year to use for forward projections. The country has been paying loans without external help, the uncertainty means no investment incoming, tourism is hit, and people in the country are withdrawing cash from the banks and hiding it in their houses, not spending it. As for the punitive Troika, they had 5 years to run the country and they failed in every single projection they made. Every memorandum was meant to be the last, and they had the governments of their choice. How many more years of full cooperation do they expect before they accept that yes, perhaps the system isn't working. But I refuse to believe they're idiots at this point. The programmes are meant to appease the average German voter and serve as a warning to the Spaniards and Italians. Basically, punitive.
        tptacek 11y ago
        Why would I concede that? 2015 Greece has begun privatization and should be feeling the impact of other reforms started in the preceding years. We're only talking about primary budgets, not debt service. Why would I think Greece in 2015 would have poorer intrinsics than in the preceding years?
        alexandros 11y ago