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Googled, "greece primary surplus". First result: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-still-has-a-vast-problem-it-doesnt-have-a-primary-bud

Googled, "greece primary surplus". First result: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-still-has-a-vast-problem-it-doesnt-have-a-primary-budget-surplus/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-st... Second paragraph, krugman quote: "Despite this catastrophe, Greece is making payments to its creditors, running a primary surplus — an excess of revenue over spending other than interest — of around 1.5 percent of G.D.P." How much did you look, and where are you seeing the opposite information on primary deficit the last few years?

arethuza 11y ago
The title of that article you have linked to is "Greece Still Has A Vast Problem; It Doesn't Have A Primary Budget Surplus"
- alexandros 11y ago
  Nobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding to.
  - tptacek 11y ago
    That seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned out lower than Greece had projected. Further, Greece had accumulated additional liabilities from pensions and tax refunds than they'd apparently stated when they announced their surplus. If you're not running a primary surplus, it's hard to see how you're paying loans without external assistance. Can you help me understand that claim a bit better?
    - alexandros 11y ago
      First, as long as you're retracting your original statement about 8-10% deficit, we're good. I'm not going to argue 1.5% down or up. Nobody's talking about paying the loans and keeping the country going without help. What people are saying is that Greece can support itself, minus the loans.
      - tptacek 11y ago
        I think you've responded to the wrong comment. I never claimed an 8-10% deficit. Also: you haven't explained how Greece can support itself, minus the loans, while still running a deficit even before interest payments on those loans.
        alexandros 11y ago
        You said there was no surplus, which I take to mean expenses == receipts. In that case, it's obvious how it will support itself (if you ignore the loans). Do you have sources for a deficit?
        tptacek 11y ago
        That was 2014. In 2015 they're apparently tracking towards an actual primary deficit. The point of discussing the 2014 and 2013 numbers is to rebut the notion that Greece had somehow found stable footing, and were being victimized by punitive negotiations from the troika. I didn't introduce that idea to the thread, but I did object to it.
        alexandros 11y ago
        Yes, I think you will concede that 2015 is not a year to use for forward projections. The country has been paying loans without external help, the uncertainty means no investment incoming, tourism is hit, and people in the country are withdrawing cash from the banks and hiding it in their houses, not spending it. As for the punitive Troika, they had 5 years to run the country and they failed in every single projection they made. Every memorandum was meant to be the last, and they had the governments of their choice. How many more years of full cooperation do they expect before they accept that yes, perhaps the system isn't working. But I refuse to believe they're idiots at this point. The programmes are meant to appease the average German voter and serve as a warning to the Spaniards and Italians. Basically, punitive.

arethuza 11y ago

The title of that article you have linked to is "Greece Still Has A Vast Problem; It Doesn't Have A Primary Budget Surplus"

alexandros 11y ago
Nobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding to.
- tptacek 11y ago
  That seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned out lower than Greece had projected. Further, Greece had accumulated additional liabilities from pensions and tax refunds than they'd apparently stated when they announced their surplus. If you're not running a primary surplus, it's hard to see how you're paying loans without external assistance. Can you help me understand that claim a bit better?
  - alexandros 11y ago
    First, as long as you're retracting your original statement about 8-10% deficit, we're good. I'm not going to argue 1.5% down or up. Nobody's talking about paying the loans and keeping the country going without help. What people are saying is that Greece can support itself, minus the loans.
    - tptacek 11y ago
      I think you've responded to the wrong comment. I never claimed an 8-10% deficit. Also: you haven't explained how Greece can support itself, minus the loans, while still running a deficit even before interest payments on those loans.
      - alexandros 11y ago
        You said there was no surplus, which I take to mean expenses == receipts. In that case, it's obvious how it will support itself (if you ignore the loans). Do you have sources for a deficit?
        tptacek 11y ago
        That was 2014. In 2015 they're apparently tracking towards an actual primary deficit. The point of discussing the 2014 and 2013 numbers is to rebut the notion that Greece had somehow found stable footing, and were being victimized by punitive negotiations from the troika. I didn't introduce that idea to the thread, but I did object to it.
        alexandros 11y ago
        Yes, I think you will concede that 2015 is not a year to use for forward projections. The country has been paying loans without external help, the uncertainty means no investment incoming, tourism is hit, and people in the country are withdrawing cash from the banks and hiding it in their houses, not spending it. As for the punitive Troika, they had 5 years to run the country and they failed in every single projection they made. Every memorandum was meant to be the last, and they had the governments of their choice. How many more years of full cooperation do they expect before they accept that yes, perhaps the system isn't working. But I refuse to believe they're idiots at this point. The programmes are meant to appease the average German voter and serve as a warning to the Spaniards and Italians. Basically, punitive.