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Years of primary surpluses are clear evidence that Greece is capable of funding its own ongoing spending. This year is an aberration due to the crisis. If the d
by natrius 11y ago
Years of primary surpluses are clear evidence that Greece is capable of funding its own ongoing spending. This year is an aberration due to the crisis. If the debt were forgiven, I don't think Greece would need outside funds in 2016. Greece isn't asking for forgiveness though—they're asking for restructuring.
Greek fiscal policy is not unsustainable. Much of it is unwise, but still affordable.
- peterfirefly 11y agoGreece most assuredly has not had years of primary surpluses! There has been a single quarter so far -- and that's assuming we can trust Greek accounting!
- tptacek 11y agoCan you cite some sources for the years of primary surplus? I'm looking for them, and the stats I'm seeing all suggest years of severe deficits.
- natrius 11y ago2013: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304549504579320343987313738 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023045495045793203... 2014: http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-misses-target-on-budget-surplus-1421244654 http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-misses-target-on-budget-s... 2013 caveat: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/04/24/greek-statistics-are-back-primary-deficit-presented-as-surplus-with-eurostats-seal-of-approval/ http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/04/24/greek-statistics-are-ba...
- arethuza 11y agoThe second of those articles seems to imply that aid to Greece is a key part of the income in the calculation of "primary surplus" and the third says "Alas, the Greek government’s 2013 primary surplus is a statistical mirage" - not exactly positive messages!
- tptacek 11y agoYou can find WSJ stories suggesting that the 2014 primary surplus is also dubious; under what the WSJ says is a "conventional" definition of primary surplus, not the one tailored to Greece, they apparently ran a deficit of over 8% of GDP in 2014. http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2014/04/23/greek-primary-surplus-statistics-troika-edition/ http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2014/04/23/greek-primary-surpl... So far, the narrative that Greece was chugging along running a surplus before accounting for debt service does not appear to square with the facts.
- alexandros 11y agoGoogled, "greece primary surplus". First result: http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-still-has-a-vast-problem-it-doesnt-have-a-primary-budget-surplus/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/02/16/greece-st... Second paragraph, krugman quote: "Despite this catastrophe, Greece is making payments to its creditors, running a primary surplus — an excess of revenue over spending other than interest — of around 1.5 percent of G.D.P." How much did you look, and where are you seeing the opposite information on primary deficit the last few years?
- arethuza 11y agoThe title of that article you have linked to is "Greece Still Has A Vast Problem; It Doesn't Have A Primary Budget Surplus"
- alexandros 11y agoNobody says Greece is running a surplus today. It has been paying loans for a year without external assistance. Plase read the thread and what I was responding to.
- tptacek 11y agoThat seems to depend entirely on who you ask. Greece claims to have run a 2014 primary surplus. The EC and ECB appear to recognize a smaller 2014 surplus (smaller than Greece claims). But IMF's most recent review suggests that there was no surplus: Greece had been counting privatization revenue (ie: the sale of utilities, ports, and airports) --- which they technically weren't supposed to, and those revenues turned out lower than Greece had projected. Further, Greece had accumulated additional liabilities from pensions and tax refunds than they'd apparently stated when they announced their surplus. If you're not running a primary surplus, it's hard to see how you're paying loans without external assistance. Can you help me understand that claim a bit better?
- alexandros 11y ago