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If you believe the various European governments, contagion risk is small, so it's not likely to hit Spain, Portugal et al. As the ECB can provide liquidity to
by raesene9 11y ago
If you believe the various European governments, contagion risk is small, so it's not likely to hit Spain, Portugal et al.
As the ECB can provide liquidity to European banks that are not insolvent (as it has been for Greece) they can stop bank runs from causing an issue in the short term at least.
What Greece's future is, from what I can see, far less certain. The Greeks state that they will now get a quick agreement, but that seems unlikely.
Any new bailout agreement would need to be ratified in 18 parliaments (the Eurozone) and in several of those the mood to accept the kind of deal Greece wants seems lacking.
As such it seems there will be an extended negotiation, which wouldn't be a huge issue except for the fact that Greece's banks are currently insolvent and without ECB funding don't appear to have any route back to solvency without leaving the Euro.
There may be some kind of political solution to that quandry but I have a feeling it will not be as certain and easy a path as the Greek government have currently stated.