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> Here is a thought to keep in mind: the more extreme the weather anomaly, the less likely it is to be caused by human-induced (anthropogenic) global warming.
by oska 11y ago
> Here is a thought to keep in mind: the more extreme the weather anomaly, the less likely it is to be caused by human-induced (anthropogenic) global warming. The current situation is mega extreme in terms of our temperatures. The reason this aphorism makes sense is that global warming due to increased greenhouse gases should warm the earth in a progressive, slow way---not in huge jumps. Here in the Northwest, temperature increases have been particularly slow (about 1F over the past century) because of the huge thermal inertia of the Pacific Ocean.
> And there is something else: the warming influencing our region is localized and does not have the characteristics of the global warming signal seen in climate models. While the Northwest has been hot and dry, much of the eastern U.S. has been much cooler and wetter than normal. Even the Rockies have been wetter than normal. Global warming would warm them as well. This week I was at a weather conference in Chicago....it was quite chilly there at times.
I think this section, particularly the second paragraph, shows the writer has a very poor understanding of what global warming is and how it can and will have different localized effects across different timeframes.
- jahnu 11y agoRight. It's like a localised variant of this famous gif... http://i.imgur.com/34cT2TM.gif http://i.imgur.com/34cT2TM.gif
- mirimir 11y agoIt's not "global warming". It's "global climate change", in response to increased greenhouse forcing. The "amplification of the upper level wave pattern" (kinked jet stream) is arguably one aspect of global climate change.[0] [0] http://phys.org/news/2015-02-evidence-link-wavy-jet-stream.html http://phys.org/news/2015-02-evidence-link-wavy-jet-stream.h...
- mckoss 11y agoCliff is a highly respected meteorologist in the NW. He debunks your citation in his blog (see his response to comments in this post).
- mirimir 11y agoRespected by whom, if I may ask? Anyone who refers to global climate change as "global warming", and who says that models predict uniform warming, is arguably either ignorant, or is intentionally distorting predictions.
- saosebastiao 11y agoMaybe you should lecture him on it: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/CliffsVitaeLatest12062011.pdf http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/CliffsVitaeLatest1206...
- mirimir 11y agoFrom his CV, I get that he's a meteorologist with an agenda about global climate issues. He has coauthored a couple papers in J. Climate, but has mostly published in meteorology journals. That's arguably analogous to a planetary scientist with strong opinions about cosmology.
- saosebastiao 11y agoHe's very popular in the Northwest, almost a celebrity in Seattle...something that doesn't happen as a climate scientist going against the common wisdom. He's not against the consensus, and anybody that has followed his blog knows this...he's just precise. Sometimes that means making statements that don't line up so easily with what gets filtered down through the media.