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Forecasting future is obviously impossible, but we could approach your question in a structured way. First of all, allow me to question your premise. Software
by LukaAl 11y ago
Forecasting future is obviously impossible, but we could approach your question in a structured way.
First of all, allow me to question your premise. Software engineering is a quite lucrative job in the US in general, and in Silicon Valley more specifically. But in many European countries command average salary (with variations due to seniority, obviously). In Eastern European countries, India and China it is for sure a well paid job but not nearly as lucrative as it is in the US.
Clarified this point, the drivers of such high salaries are resource scarcity and high demand.
On the demand side, there are few relevant uncertainties: basically whether the economy will sustain the growth of the software industry (or, there is no tech bubble) and, on a longer timeline, whether evolution in programming technique will outpace the growing demand for software or not.
On the supply side, the main question is whether there will be an immigration reform or not and how it will impact the tech sector. Furthermore, more people are training now in coding than before, both in universities and after university using bootcamps or similar institutions. So the critical uncertainty is whether the new trained people are enough and good enough.
My humble opinion, given all these uncertainties and their probable resolution in the long term, is that sooner or later, "software salaries" will have to adjust downward. The only question is when and how fast. Aka, it will be something in the immediate or int the far future and it will be a hard landing or a smooth erosion over time?