I think it will be more than a few years. It's basically been like this for at least the last 30 years (as long as I've been in the industry). Demand outpaces

I think it will be more than a few years. It's basically been like this for at least the last 30 years (as long as I've been in the industry). Demand outpaces supply. Schools see programmers as a money making industry for them, so they mint new programmers as fast as they can (regardless of ability). People in other industries move over to programming because there is such a demand that you can even get a job without any qualifications. The end result is that even while demand is outstripping supply, the vast majority of the supply is under qualified to do the job. Employers burned by under qualified employees agree to spend more and more money to hopefully find the needles in the haystack. If they collude to agree not to pinch each other's needles they get their hands slapped ;-). Even if there is a world-wide economic downturn (like we just experienced), it plays into the hands of high salaries because under performing companies dump under performing employees on the market making it even harder to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's a bit like professional sports. There is an endless supply of people willing to play sports for a living. The competition to get the best of the best drives salaries up for everyone who gets a job. I was surprised to learn that one of the Japanese soccer players that I follow who has been sitting on the bench of a poorly performing 2nd division European team for 2 years is making more than $1 million a year. However... although I don't see salaries going down for a very long time, I do see it getting progressively harder to get a job. Perhaps, as you say, like the lawyers. I think businesses are going to want to get value for their money and similar to the sports industry I can see a much more laissez faire attitude towards employees. Produce and you can stay (maybe). If we don't like you -- for any reason -- we'll dump you for the next guy. Maybe I should become an agent...