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There are a few things working against the prospect of it being lucrative and a few working for it. I think it's a safe field for 5 - 10 years, beyond that it
by nkozyra 11y ago
There are a few things working against the prospect of it being lucrative and a few working for it. I think it's a safe field for 5 - 10 years, beyond that it starts becoming a bit murky. Here are three potential reasons:
1. Influx of supply. This has been steadily happening for, well, the entirety of the life of the profession, but the prospect of big money at a lower barrier is making this feasible for a lot more people. Money attracts, which draws the parallels to the attorney drives in the past.
2. [ Feeding #1 ] Cascading loss of professions will move people into other parts of the labor market. As automation removes entire professions, those people will be forced into other markets and will begin to tighten competition and feed the supply influx further.
Which leads to the unfortunate ...
3. Increasing automation of developer tasks will reduce the need for humans for some programming / development. Not entirely, obviously, and not in the near-term, but a lot of the functions that require humans - general problem solving scripting, testing, simple goal-based programming will begin to fall to automated agents. On a similar note, congregation of technologies and philosophies will remove a lot of the dissonance between stacks, devices and platforms.