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No. Give it another few years and the fact that it's a red-hot job market will catch up and we'll end up like lawyers. The perception of high salaries and the r

No. Give it another few years and the fact that it's a red-hot job market will catch up and we'll end up like lawyers. The perception of high salaries and the reality of a lack thereof.

sanswork 11y ago
You say this like programming has never been a red-hot job market in the past. Also a lot of lawyers are still highly paid even newer ones. Being a lawyer, like being a programmer is no guarantee that you will be making 6 figures but you're a lot more likely to in either of those jobs than most others.
- gingerrr 11y ago
  The lawyers who find positions may get paid well, but the issue isn't just salaries - the legal market was completely swamped about 5 years ago, around the same time many of my friends were graduating law school. A good number of them never managed to find positions with firms, and many either returned to grad school or are (funnily enough) now programming. edit: a word
- burritofanatic 11y ago
  As a lawyer turned programmer, I've written a bit about this here: http://www.williamha.com/economics-of-software-development-v-the-practice-of-law-a-rough-look/ http://www.williamha.com/economics-of-software-development-v... I also did an interview on Above the Law about how some people in the legal profession may be better off in software: http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/should-you-leave-law-and-learn-to-code-a-conversation-with-lawyer-turned-programmer-will-ha/ http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/should-you-leave-law-and-lear... And for the record, the majority of new lawyers in the United States are paid as much if not less than an junior software developer these days.
  - sanswork 11y ago
    I'm a developer, my wife is a lawyer though not in the US. I think the assumption that you call out yourself(64 yo developer) is the main difference over a lifetime of work. How many developers are going to be finding much work over 45-50 unless they are already well positioned as an independent consultant or have a name brand? That's 15-20 years more earning potential for the lawyer. The other thing is the startup x-factor. Because so many start ups fail studies have shown developers that go the startup career route actually make less on average than their counterparts working for larger established companies. Very few people have the drive to make partner at a large firm but even fewer people are lucky enough to be an early employee at a company that makes their equity worth more than a years salary.
    - tjradcliffe 11y ago
      > How many developers are going to be finding much work over 45-50 unless they are already well positioned as an independent consultant or have a name brand? Why exactly is this? And why would anyone go into a profession where they will be unable to find work when they are half way through, and at the peak of their powers? In every other intellectual enterprise--doctors and lawyers particularly--they hit their peak earning years just as software developers because (supposedly) unemployable. This makes little to no sense. It isn't like good older developers become magically incapable of learning new langauges or frameworks. It isn't as if they become less reliable than a 20-something just out of school. It isn't as if they suddenly forget 25 years of history that lets them make more accurate effort estimates than anyone else. So where does this perception that developers must be young come from, and why does anyone go into a profession that by definition (apparently) is going to require the to change feilds mid-career?
      - sanswork 11y ago
        I'm not promoting or saying I agree with it(which I don't) I'm saying it is a reality for a lot of older developers. I suspect it is that people think they are less flexible and less willing to work unsociable hours though.
    - mikekchar 11y ago
mikekchar 11y ago
I think it will be more than a few years. It's basically been like this for at least the last 30 years (as long as I've been in the industry). Demand outpaces supply. Schools see programmers as a money making industry for them, so they mint new programmers as fast as they can (regardless of ability). People in other industries move over to programming because there is such a demand that you can even get a job without any qualifications. The end result is that even while demand is outstripping supply, the vast majority of the supply is under qualified to do the job. Employers burned by under qualified employees agree to spend more and more money to hopefully find the needles in the haystack. If they collude to agree not to pinch each other's needles they get their hands slapped ;-). Even if there is a world-wide economic downturn (like we just experienced), it plays into the hands of high salaries because under performing companies dump under performing employees on the market making it even harder to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's a bit like professional sports. There is an endless supply of people willing to play sports for a living. The competition to get the best of the best drives salaries up for everyone who gets a job. I was surprised to learn that one of the Japanese soccer players that I follow who has been sitting on the bench of a poorly performing 2nd division European team for 2 years is making more than $1 million a year. However... although I don't see salaries going down for a very long time, I do see it getting progressively harder to get a job. Perhaps, as you say, like the lawyers. I think businesses are going to want to get value for their money and similar to the sports industry I can see a much more laissez faire attitude towards employees. Produce and you can stay (maybe). If we don't like you -- for any reason -- we'll dump you for the next guy. Maybe I should become an agent...
brandonmenc 11y ago
I've seen this a couple of times already. It always shakes out, with the "real programmers" always having jobs and increasing salaries.

No. Give it another few years and the fact that it's a red-hot job market will catch up and we'll end up like lawyers. The perception of high salaries and the reality of a lack thereof.

sanswork 11y ago

You say this like programming has never been a red-hot job market in the past. Also a lot of lawyers are still highly paid even newer ones. Being a lawyer, like being a programmer is no guarantee that you will be making 6 figures but you're a lot more likely to in either of those jobs than most others.

gingerrr 11y ago
The lawyers who find positions may get paid well, but the issue isn't just salaries - the legal market was completely swamped about 5 years ago, around the same time many of my friends were graduating law school. A good number of them never managed to find positions with firms, and many either returned to grad school or are (funnily enough) now programming. edit: a word
burritofanatic 11y ago
As a lawyer turned programmer, I've written a bit about this here: http://www.williamha.com/economics-of-software-development-v-the-practice-of-law-a-rough-look/ http://www.williamha.com/economics-of-software-development-v... I also did an interview on Above the Law about how some people in the legal profession may be better off in software: http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/should-you-leave-law-and-learn-to-code-a-conversation-with-lawyer-turned-programmer-will-ha/ http://abovethelaw.com/2015/06/should-you-leave-law-and-lear... And for the record, the majority of new lawyers in the United States are paid as much if not less than an junior software developer these days.
- sanswork 11y ago
  I'm a developer, my wife is a lawyer though not in the US. I think the assumption that you call out yourself(64 yo developer) is the main difference over a lifetime of work. How many developers are going to be finding much work over 45-50 unless they are already well positioned as an independent consultant or have a name brand? That's 15-20 years more earning potential for the lawyer. The other thing is the startup x-factor. Because so many start ups fail studies have shown developers that go the startup career route actually make less on average than their counterparts working for larger established companies. Very few people have the drive to make partner at a large firm but even fewer people are lucky enough to be an early employee at a company that makes their equity worth more than a years salary.
  - tjradcliffe 11y ago
    > How many developers are going to be finding much work over 45-50 unless they are already well positioned as an independent consultant or have a name brand? Why exactly is this? And why would anyone go into a profession where they will be unable to find work when they are half way through, and at the peak of their powers? In every other intellectual enterprise--doctors and lawyers particularly--they hit their peak earning years just as software developers because (supposedly) unemployable. This makes little to no sense. It isn't like good older developers become magically incapable of learning new langauges or frameworks. It isn't as if they become less reliable than a 20-something just out of school. It isn't as if they suddenly forget 25 years of history that lets them make more accurate effort estimates than anyone else. So where does this perception that developers must be young come from, and why does anyone go into a profession that by definition (apparently) is going to require the to change feilds mid-career?
    - sanswork 11y ago
      I'm not promoting or saying I agree with it(which I don't) I'm saying it is a reality for a lot of older developers. I suspect it is that people think they are less flexible and less willing to work unsociable hours though.
  - mikekchar 11y ago

mikekchar 11y ago

I think it will be more than a few years. It's basically been like this for at least the last 30 years (as long as I've been in the industry). Demand outpaces supply. Schools see programmers as a money making industry for them, so they mint new programmers as fast as they can (regardless of ability). People in other industries move over to programming because there is such a demand that you can even get a job without any qualifications. The end result is that even while demand is outstripping supply, the vast majority of the supply is under qualified to do the job. Employers burned by under qualified employees agree to spend more and more money to hopefully find the needles in the haystack. If they collude to agree not to pinch each other's needles they get their hands slapped ;-). Even if there is a world-wide economic downturn (like we just experienced), it plays into the hands of high salaries because under performing companies dump under performing employees on the market making it even harder to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's a bit like professional sports. There is an endless supply of people willing to play sports for a living. The competition to get the best of the best drives salaries up for everyone who gets a job. I was surprised to learn that one of the Japanese soccer players that I follow who has been sitting on the bench of a poorly performing 2nd division European team for 2 years is making more than $1 million a year. However... although I don't see salaries going down for a very long time, I do see it getting progressively harder to get a job. Perhaps, as you say, like the lawyers. I think businesses are going to want to get value for their money and similar to the sports industry I can see a much more laissez faire attitude towards employees. Produce and you can stay (maybe). If we don't like you -- for any reason -- we'll dump you for the next guy. Maybe I should become an agent...

brandonmenc 11y ago

I've seen this a couple of times already. It always shakes out, with the "real programmers" always having jobs and increasing salaries.