Not really. Russia defaulted in 1998 and had no trouble raising more debt. After they defaulted they suddenly had some free cash flow with which to be able to

Not really. Russia defaulted in 1998 and had no trouble raising more debt. After they defaulted they suddenly had some free cash flow with which to be able to pay their new debts, and so they looked like a much better risk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis At the government level people are mostly just looking for ability to service. When you're spending 50% of tax revenue on existing debt payments, you don't look like a good risk. When you're spending 0% of tax revenue on existing debt payments, you look like an excellent risk. It's super wacky, but that's seemingly how it works.